The American Politics thread

[Fusion]

State of the race: Advantage, Obama

Politico's analysis of the race as of right now gives the advantage to Obama. An interesting blurb from the article:

The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.

“Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.

[Anil]

obama will lose this election...between the 100s of millions thrown into the ring by their sugar daddies and their proven expertise at running smear campaigns, i don't see obama as having much of a chance...everyone says no one gave obama a chance in 2008 and he won but at the time, but a lot of people including me underestimated how much of a negative effect bush would have on the republican campaign...this time they aren't letting bush and other walking disasters like palin with a 100 miles of the campaign and it will work for them come november...

[Spark]

State of the race: Advantage, Obama

Politico's analysis of the race as of right now gives the advantage to Obama. An interesting blurb from the article:

The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.

“Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.

Someone will have to remind me of the numbers, but all the blue states + PA (which is basically a blue state) + OH and that's basically the ball game, isn't it? If it isn't, it's close to.

Apparently his post-convention bounce has been higher than expected, even with the ****ty jobs numbers.

[Fusion]

Someone will have to remind me of the numbers, but all the blue states + PA (which is basically a blue state) + OH and that's basically the ball game, isn't it? If it isn't, it's close to.

Apparently his post-convention bounce has been higher than expected, even with the ****ty jobs numbers.

Romney MUST win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia to have a realistic shot at 270 electoral votes. Why? Because if Obama were to win any of those states, his path to victory becomes significantly easier. Consider the scenario below posted on this website:

If Obama wins Florida, he can lose the following states that he won in 2008 and still be elected with 271 electoral votes (one more than is needed to become president):

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
Virginia
North Carolina

Alternatively, if Obama were to win Florida and hold Pennsylvania, he could win with 271 votes while losing the following states that he won in 2008:

New Hampshire
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada


Even if Obama were to lose Florida, but got Ohio and Virginia, he can still get to 270 by winning Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, New Mexico and Iowa. All of those are States that he's expected to win. I can come up with similar scenarios for Obama winning one of either Ohio and Virginia (and losing the the other 2) and demonstrate how easy his path to victory becomes.

Hence, Romney must win all three of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Can anyone tell me that's a slam dunk for Romney? Obama's path to victory is easier than Romney's. I'm not overconfident and I still think this election's is anyone's to take. However, I simply don't get the "Obama has no chance" rhetoric.

[silentstriker]

Even if Obama were to lose Florida, but got Ohio and Virginia, he can still get to 270 by winning Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, New Mexico and Iowa. All of those are States that he's expected to win.

North Carolina? He isn't winning that again.

[Spikey]

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

depending on just how you view the decision by Romney/pro-romney pacs etc to go on a big ad spree but not run ads in WI and MI, Obama could be up to 247. Romney basically has to sweep all the remaining states that offer more than 6.

I mean, a lot can still change. But it's really really really Obama's election to loss. Romney Super Pacs can't change the map

Oh and attempts to cancel early voting in Ohio seem to be now over.

[Spikey]

i mean romney's already sorta going nuts: "I will not take God off our coins"

[Spark]

Romney MUST win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia to have a realistic shot at 270 electoral votes. Why? Because if Obama were to win any of those states, his path to victory becomes significantly easier. Consider the scenario below posted on this website:

If Obama wins Florida, he can lose the following states that he won in 2008 and still be elected with 271 electoral votes (one more than is needed to become president):

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
Virginia
North Carolina

Alternatively, if Obama were to win Florida and hold Pennsylvania, he could win with 271 votes while losing the following states that he won in 2008:

New Hampshire
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada


Even if Obama were to lose Florida, but got Ohio and Virginia, he can still get to 270 by winning Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, New Mexico and Iowa. All of those are States that he's expected to win. I can come up with similar scenarios for Obama winning one of either Ohio and Virginia (and losing the the other 2) and demonstrate how easy his path to victory becomes.

Hence, Romney must win all three of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Can anyone tell me that's a slam dunk for Romney? Obama's path to victory is easier than Romney's. I'm not overconfident and I still think this election's is anyone's to take. However, I simply don't get the "Obama has no chance" rhetoric.

Yeah precisely. Been saying it for ages - the electoral map is stacked in Obama's favour. He had a headstart before the race even began.

[Fusion]

North Carolina? He isn't winning that again.

North Carolina was all tied up going into the DNC

But OK, let's say he's not "expected" to win there as I said. Even if he loses that, but wins any one of Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he's still got a clear path to victory. That's my whole point - that his path is easier than Romney's.

[Samuel_Vimes]

Someone will have to remind me of the numbers, but all the blue states + PA (which is basically a blue state) + OH and that's basically the ball game, isn't it? If it isn't, it's close to.

That makes 255 according to this map.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

I suppose you could call Wisconsin blue too, in which case Obama just needs one more state to tie.

[Cevno]

Do the electoral college votes of each state change each election or are they constant?

I don't get why they have this system in USA where the second place votes in states don't count. Is there supposed to be some sort of advantage to this system over counting actual votes?

[Spark]

IIRC it has to do with historical reasons, and making sure each state gets its voice heard properly. They take the whole federalism thing pretty seriously.

[Spikey]

i mean, it's a system created in 1788 or whatever

[Spikey]

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, who promised early in his campaign to repeal President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, says he would keep several important parts of the overhaul.

this [bot]...

[Shri]

Hope and Change 2 - Barack Obama: It Could Have Been Worse - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 09/06/12 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

**** Jon Stewart should play Tony Stark in some sort of animated series. Brilliant timing and delivery.