The American Politics thread - Page 113

Spark · 06-09-2012, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by silentstriker

Well at least he admitted climate change is real, and laid out the litany of people right wingers blame (gays, unions, immigrants, etc).

Think he's playing on the fact that the Republican Party is not especially popular outside the Republican Party.

End was a lot better than the start. Got into very JFK territory without every directly referencing him (IIRC) and got very, very close to "yes we can" without ever really using it.

silentstriker · 06-09-2012, 09:16 PM

Best zinger? Take two taxcuts and call me in the morning.

Fusion · 06-09-2012, 09:22 PM

I thought it was a good speech. Clinton's was definitely better. But as has been pointed out by many pundits, Clinton and other speakers don't have the burden of the office and can be more relaxed and fiery. In any case, I thought it was an EXCELLENT convention for the Dems overall. They fired up the base, presented a good defense of Obama, and presented a stark contrast with the Republican platform.

So now it truly begins. Republicans have already stated they plan to carpet bomb swing states with ads starting tomorrow. Here's where that 2-1 money advantage that the GOP has will come into play.

We can disregard the national polls; it will all come down to the swing states. Game on.

silentstriker · 06-09-2012, 09:25 PM

Yea, the full fury of the Republican advantage hasn't been unleashed yet, that's why I've been very bearish on Obama's chances even though nationally he seems to be tied or with a small lead.

As much as people say they don't like it, political ads, and negative attacks, do work.

Spikey · 06-09-2012, 09:37 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnE6HHH_50

can't believe not one person said 'neigh'

Burgey · 06-09-2012, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by silentstriker

Yea, the full fury of the Republican advantage hasn't been unleashed yet, that's why I've been very bearish on Obama's chances even though nationally he seems to be tied or with a small lead.

As much as people say they don't like it, political ads, and negative attacks, do work.

Last time I checked, 538.com had Obama with about a 73% probability of winning.

It's generally a decent predicter, iirc.

Spikey · 06-09-2012, 10:09 PM

frankly ss is cenvoing

silentstriker · 06-09-2012, 11:39 PM

Truthfully, I am not. I realize what 538 says (it is one of my favorite sites). However, the effect of money is not in his calculations - it can't be - this is the first post-citizens united election. It's going to be 3-4 states that decide the election, and those states will be blanketed.

I would bet that by october, Romney has pulled ahead by at least a few percentage points, and will be on a decent path to victory barring a total collapse in the debates.

Spikey · 06-09-2012, 11:50 PM

obama's already up to like 237 of the 270 required. team romney have basically pulled out of michigan. it's his to lose. money can't change the college map.

Emanuel Cleaver Speech At 2012 Democratic National Convention Fires Up Crowd - YouTube

hooooly ****

Spark · 07-09-2012, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by silentstriker

Truthfully, I am not. I realize what 538 says (it is one of my favorite sites). However, the effect of money is not in his calculations - it can't be - this is the first post-citizens united election. It's going to be 3-4 states that decide the election, and those states will be blanketed.

I would bet that by october, Romney has pulled ahead by at least a few percentage points, and will be on a decent path to victory barring a total collapse in the debates.

It's really quite difficult for Obama to lose whilst winning PA. By no means impossible, but difficult. He's favourite for a reason.

We went through all this in 2008 too (though granted Obama has much less money this time)

Sanz · 07-09-2012, 08:33 AM

Here is how I see it now, with Obama having a very narrow lead over Romney. But If Ohio turns it back on Obama, Romney WILL win.

silentstriker · 07-09-2012, 05:24 PM

Hope and Change 2 - Barack Obama: It Could Have Been Worse - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 09/06/12 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

wellAlbidarned · 07-09-2012, 06:04 PM

He's not terrible [/Athlai]

LongHopCassidy · 07-09-2012, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sanz

Here is how I see it now, with Obama having a very narrow lead over Romney. But If Ohio turns it back on Obama, Romney WILL win.

Florida much, much closer than suggested on that map. It was widely considered a toss-up even before Paul 'make Medicare more expensive and a pain in the arse to get' Ryan was picked without regard to a senior-heavy state with 29 electoral votes.

It may fall to the GOP, but it won't be because Obama or his super PAC didn't drown the state with ads.

Quaggas · 08-09-2012, 03:00 AM

Anyone seen this? If Romney fails, he'd likely be most welcomed as head honcho in SA or Pakistan....

06-09-2012, 09:37 PM	#1685 (permalink)
Spikey Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: All Glory To The Nev Posts: 24,102	http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnE6HHH_50 can't believe not one person said 'neigh' __________________ Indians can't bowl - Where has the rumour come from as I myself and many indian friends arwe competent fast bowlers ? With the English bid I said: Let us be brief. If you give back the Falkland Islands, which belong to us, you will get my vote. They then became sad and left

07-09-2012, 06:04 PM	#1693 (permalink)
wellAlbidarned International Captain Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: spaghetti Posts: 5,008	He's not terrible [/Athlai] __________________ "MTV isn't really my cup of tea... mostly because I hate huge pieces of **** in my tea." - Aziz Ansari

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06-09-2012, 09:22 PM	#1683 (permalink)
Fusion Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: United States Posts: 10,781	I thought it was a good speech. Clinton's was definitely better. But as has been pointed out by many pundits, Clinton and other speakers don't have the burden of the office and can be more relaxed and fiery. In any case, I thought it was an EXCELLENT convention for the Dems overall. They fired up the base, presented a good defense of Obama, and presented a stark contrast with the Republican platform. So now it truly begins. Republicans have already stated they plan to carpet bomb swing states with ads starting tomorrow. Here's where that 2-1 money advantage that the GOP has will come into play. We can disregard the national polls; it will all come down to the swing states. Game on.

06-09-2012, 09:25 PM	#1684 (permalink)
silentstriker The Wheel is Forever Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: USA Posts: 36,538	Yea, the full fury of the Republican advantage hasn't been unleashed yet, that's why I've been very bearish on Obama's chances even though nationally he seems to be tied or with a small lead. As much as people say they don't like it, political ads, and negative attacks, do work.

06-09-2012, 10:09 PM	#1687 (permalink)
Spikey Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: All Glory To The Nev Posts: 24,102	frankly ss is cenvoing

06-09-2012, 11:39 PM	#1688 (permalink)
silentstriker The Wheel is Forever Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: USA Posts: 36,538	Truthfully, I am not. I realize what 538 says (it is one of my favorite sites). However, the effect of money is not in his calculations - it can't be - this is the first post-citizens united election. It's going to be 3-4 states that decide the election, and those states will be blanketed. I would bet that by october, Romney has pulled ahead by at least a few percentage points, and will be on a decent path to victory barring a total collapse in the debates.

06-09-2012, 11:50 PM	#1689 (permalink)
Spikey Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: All Glory To The Nev Posts: 24,102	obama's already up to like 237 of the 270 required. team romney have basically pulled out of michigan. it's his to lose. money can't change the college map. Emanuel Cleaver Speech At 2012 Democratic National Convention Fires Up Crowd - YouTube hooooly ****

07-09-2012, 05:24 PM	#1692 (permalink)
silentstriker The Wheel is Forever Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: USA Posts: 36,538	Hope and Change 2 - Barack Obama: It Could Have Been Worse - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 09/06/12 - Video Clip \| Comedy Central

08-09-2012, 03:00 AM	#1695 (permalink)
Quaggas International 12th Man Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: USA Posts: 1,537	Anyone seen this? If Romney fails, he'd likely be most welcomed as head honcho in SA or Pakistan....

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