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Thread: The American Politics thread

  1. #1681
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Well at least he admitted climate change is real, and laid out the litany of people right wingers blame (gays, unions, immigrants, etc).
    Think he's playing on the fact that the Republican Party is not especially popular outside the Republican Party.

    End was a lot better than the start. Got into very JFK territory without every directly referencing him (IIRC) and got very, very close to "yes we can" without ever really using it.
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  2. #1682
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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  3. #1683
    Global Moderator Fusion's Avatar
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    I thought it was a good speech. Clinton's was definitely better. But as has been pointed out by many pundits, Clinton and other speakers don't have the burden of the office and can be more relaxed and fiery. In any case, I thought it was an EXCELLENT convention for the Dems overall. They fired up the base, presented a good defense of Obama, and presented a stark contrast with the Republican platform.

    So now it truly begins. Republicans have already stated they plan to carpet bomb swing states with ads starting tomorrow. Here's where that 2-1 money advantage that the GOP has will come into play.

    We can disregard the national polls; it will all come down to the swing states. Game on.

  4. #1684
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Yea, the full fury of the Republican advantage hasn't been unleashed yet, that's why I've been very bearish on Obama's chances even though nationally he seems to be tied or with a small lead.

    As much as people say they don't like it, political ads, and negative attacks, do work.


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  6. #1686
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Yea, the full fury of the Republican advantage hasn't been unleashed yet, that's why I've been very bearish on Obama's chances even though nationally he seems to be tied or with a small lead.

    As much as people say they don't like it, political ads, and negative attacks, do work.
    Last time I checked, 538.com had Obama with about a 73% probability of winning.

    It's generally a decent predicter, iirc.
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  7. #1687
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    frankly ss is cenvoing

  8. #1688
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Truthfully, I am not. I realize what 538 says (it is one of my favorite sites). However, the effect of money is not in his calculations - it can't be - this is the first post-citizens united election. It's going to be 3-4 states that decide the election, and those states will be blanketed.

    I would bet that by october, Romney has pulled ahead by at least a few percentage points, and will be on a decent path to victory barring a total collapse in the debates.

  9. #1689
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    obama's already up to like 237 of the 270 required. team romney have basically pulled out of michigan. it's his to lose. money can't change the college map.

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  10. #1690
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Truthfully, I am not. I realize what 538 says (it is one of my favorite sites). However, the effect of money is not in his calculations - it can't be - this is the first post-citizens united election. It's going to be 3-4 states that decide the election, and those states will be blanketed.

    I would bet that by october, Romney has pulled ahead by at least a few percentage points, and will be on a decent path to victory barring a total collapse in the debates.
    It's really quite difficult for Obama to lose whilst winning PA. By no means impossible, but difficult. He's favourite for a reason.

    We went through all this in 2008 too (though granted Obama has much less money this time)

  11. #1691
    Hall of Fame Member Sanz's Avatar
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    Here is how I see it now, with Obama having a very narrow lead over Romney. But If Ohio turns it back on Obama, Romney WILL win.
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  13. #1693
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    He's not terrible [/Athlai]
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  14. #1694
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanz View Post
    Here is how I see it now, with Obama having a very narrow lead over Romney. But If Ohio turns it back on Obama, Romney WILL win.
    Florida much, much closer than suggested on that map. It was widely considered a toss-up even before Paul 'make Medicare more expensive and a pain in the arse to get' Ryan was picked without regard to a senior-heavy state with 29 electoral votes.

    It may fall to the GOP, but it won't be because Obama or his super PAC didn't drown the state with ads.
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  15. #1695
    International 12th Man Quaggas's Avatar
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    Anyone seen this? If Romney fails, he'd likely be most welcomed as head honcho in SA or Pakistan....



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