WWCC - Loyaulte Mi Lie
"Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself" - Tony Benn
#408. Sixty three not out forever.
A concern for Rudd and his mob of likely lads (and deliberately barren anti-lads)?
Originally Posted by The Courier Mail
'Copperfield,' said Mr. Micawber, 'farewell! Every happiness and prosperity! If, in the progress of revolving years, I could persuade myself that my blighted destiny had been a warning to you, I should feel that I had not occupied another man's place in existence altogether in vain.
- Wilkins Micawber
The swing I was referring to was the Qld 6 monthly one in Newspoll which, iirc was around 6-8%. I think if that swing was extrapolated across the state then the other seats would fall.
So many polls, so much data - I feel like that juror in the South Park episode whose head exploded when Johnnie Cochrane ran the Chewbacca defence.
I'd watch that!
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R.I.P Fardin 'Bob' Qayyumi
Member of the Church of the Holy Glenn McGrath
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Have we started banning people from voting because they have a parking fine yet?
Huge tax cut announcement today by the government. Very early in the campaign too. Says to me they know they are seriously behind, but any tax cut announcement gets good press, even if the cuts are somewhat "aspirational" in that they are over 3-5 years.
The old spendometer will get a serious work out from both parties in the next 6 weeks I reckon.
The concern here for the government is that the RBA will see this and definately raise rates next month.
Interesting times (pun intended).
Last edited by Burgey; 15-10-2007 at 01:11 AM.
Anyway, I think the reason for the early release of the tax policy today was two fold. Firstly, to return the focus to the Government's strength - economic management. Secondly, use it to try and ramp up the pressure on Rudd to release his tax policy, knowing full well that he'll release it in his own good time. In the meantime, the Libs will make the charge that you can't be serious about governing Australia without an alternative tax plan, and hope to get some traction with that.
I think you're right on the reasons for the tax cuts now. I also think they may be trying to make the "narrowing" a self-fulfilling prophecy by making a big announcement now.
These cuts remind me a bit of the old fist ful of dollars from 77. A few "ifs" and "buts" there, but that is to be expected I think.
Interesting juxtaposition of the two leaders on ACA and with Red Kerry last night. I've noticed that the media have been on to the PM far less re. his interest rate gaffe than they were on KR re. the tax rates gaffe earlier.
Re. rates, I suppose it will depend on whether the RBA takes a mid-long term view of it, or a short-mid term view. If the inflation rae is towards the higher end of acceptable and they factor int he tax cuts, there may be a rise, but if they don't factor them in as they don't kick off until July, then they may not rise.
I think Labor will do a bit of a me too on the tax rates, given that the fiscal outlook only came out yesterday. I wouldn't, however, be surprised if they hive off, say $1 billion or $2 billion for extra hospital stuff and to maintain some aura of fiscal responsibility about things.
Lateline just had a dire story about a couple of academics predicting the permanent demise of the Liberal party if they lose this election - based upon apparent severe dissatisfaction within the state apparati at the centralisation of power with the federal exec under Howard and the supposed schism between the small l liberals and the social conservatives, followed by speculation about the emergence of a new centrist party.
Gerard Henderson summed up the whole story in the 5 seconds they gave him near the end of it - "Its a nice theory for the academics in their uni campuses, but this is the real world". If the Libs lose, no doubt a lot of personality clashes and divisions that have been suppressed by common interest while they've held power would come to the fore - its a lot harder to maintain discipline when you've got nothing to lose. And if the Libs lose government, you'd think they'd lose a lot of the dominant figures in the party to retirement.
But they wont disappear, they'll just do what every party in opposition does - flail around for a while with a succession of seemingly poor leaders, struggling to get airtime or any initiative in the agenda, until a reasonably solid new leader emerges at about the time when the public is souring on the imcumbent government. The new leader reinvents the party as all the bits you love with the bits you dislike supposedly jettisoned, like the Libs did in 96, and Rudd is doing now, and hey presto, he's a genius. The reality is that Oppositions can't win elections, they can only NOT lose them. For a change to happen, the Gov has to lose the election at the same time as an opposition not losing it.
GOOD OLD COLLINGWOOD - PREMIERS IN 2010Originally Posted by Irfan
Is Cam White, Is Good.
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