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Thread: The Australian politics thread

  1. #1381
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howardj View Post
    Howard Roars Out Of The Blocks!

    Nobody likes a phoney! lol
    Before being sent straight back to them by a 56-44 Newspoll released today.

    That Galaxy Poll is a 5% swing in Qld, which will deliver Labor about 4-6seats.

    Agree with both of you guys on the debate format - a big yawn really.
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  2. #1382
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post

    That Galaxy Poll is a 5% swing in Qld, which will deliver Labor about 4-6seats.

    .
    With respect, I think your analysis is flawed. You should take a 5% swing and apply it to the individual seats in Queensland (which gives them only two extra seat wins in Qld) not the overall State result. There are only two seats within 5% in Queensland. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/fede.../state_qld.htm

  3. #1383
    Hall of Fame Member Johnners's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    Before being sent straight back to them by a 56-44 Newspoll released today.

    That Galaxy Poll is a 5% swing in Qld, which will deliver Labor about 4-6seats.

    Agree with both of you guys on the debate format - a big yawn really.
    tbh i think the entire 6 weeks leading up to the election will be a big yawn, both parties have already been "campaigning" it seems forever.
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  4. #1384
    Cricketer Of The Year Mr Casson's Avatar
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    A concern for Rudd and his mob of likely lads (and deliberately barren anti-lads)?


    Quote Originally Posted by The Courier Mail
    Young voters face enrolment crisis

    By Steve Lewis

    October 15, 2007 12:05am
    Article from: The Courier-Mail

    MORE than 140,000 mainly young Australians have been stripped of their right to vote in the past six months - and many won't be re-enrolled before Wednesday night's deadline.

    With opinion polls suggesting up to 73 per cent of 18 to 29-year-olds prefer Labor to the Coalition, estimates that up to 400,000 young voters might not be enrolled to vote is a potentially serious concern for the Opposition.

    This follows the introduction of more stringent electoral laws making it harder for first-time voters to enrol and remain up-to-date.

    Voters are stripped from the electoral roll when they change address but fail to notify the AEC.

    Further, in June 2006, the Government dramatically cut the period of time which people have to register when the election is called.

    Those who need to simply update their name or address, have until 8pm next Tuesday, October 23.
    'Copperfield,' said Mr. Micawber, 'farewell! Every happiness and prosperity! If, in the progress of revolving years, I could persuade myself that my blighted destiny had been a warning to you, I should feel that I had not occupied another man's place in existence altogether in vain.
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  5. #1385
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howardj View Post
    With respect, I think your analysis is flawed. You should take a 5% swing and apply it to the individual seats in Queensland (which gives them only two extra seat wins in Qld) not the overall State result. There are only two seats within 5% in Queensland. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/fede.../state_qld.htm
    You're right - my bad.

    The swing I was referring to was the Qld 6 monthly one in Newspoll which, iirc was around 6-8%. I think if that swing was extrapolated across the state then the other seats would fall.

    So many polls, so much data - I feel like that juror in the South Park episode whose head exploded when Johnnie Cochrane ran the Chewbacca defence.

  6. #1386
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    You're right - my bad.

    The swing I was referring to was the Qld 6 monthly one in Newspoll which, iirc was around 6-8%. I think if that swing was extrapolated across the state then the other seats would fall.

    So many polls, so much data - I feel like that juror in the South Park episode whose head exploded when Johnnie Cochrane ran the Chewbacca defence.
    Yeah, in any case, the samples are very small in that Galaxy poll anyway - with a margin of error of 7% or something like that, it renders them pretty unreliable.

  7. #1387
    Hall of Fame Member Son Of Coco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt79 View Post
    True - as long as they don't trot out the bloody worm again. Desperately pathetic gimmic IMO.
    They should get them both to do the worm (the 80's breakdancing move, for those of you not hip and jiggy with it!). The whole debate could be held in the style of an 80's dance off, with one standing with a lop-sided gait and his arms crossed while the other spins on his head in the middle of the floor.

    I'd watch that!
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  8. #1388
    Hall of Fame Member Son Of Coco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Casson View Post
    A concern for Rudd and his mob of likely lads (and deliberately barren anti-lads)?
    Yeah, I have to update my address. I'm doing it now. They make it a lot harder than it needs to be to get this done. There must be a reason for me having to post the form back rather than a system where it can be done online...but I haven't found it yet.

    Have we started banning people from voting because they have a parking fine yet?

  9. #1389
    Hall of Fame Member Son Of Coco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clapo View Post
    tbh i think the entire 6 weeks leading up to the election will be a big yawn, both parties have already been "campaigning" it seems forever.
    I agree...I'm going to stick to my policy of taking no notice of anything the goverment says in an election year that involves a promise to do something or give money to someone, including me.

  10. #1390
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Son Of Coco View Post
    I agree...I'm going to stick to my policy of taking no notice of anything the goverment says in an election year that involves a promise to do something or give money to someone, including me.
    I think that goes for any government mate.

    Huge tax cut announcement today by the government. Very early in the campaign too. Says to me they know they are seriously behind, but any tax cut announcement gets good press, even if the cuts are somewhat "aspirational" in that they are over 3-5 years.

    The old spendometer will get a serious work out from both parties in the next 6 weeks I reckon.

    The concern here for the government is that the RBA will see this and definately raise rates next month.

    Interesting times (pun intended).
    Last edited by Burgey; 15-10-2007 at 01:11 AM.

  11. #1391
    Hall of Fame Member Son Of Coco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    I think that goes for any government mate.

    Huge tax cut announcement today by the government. Very early in the campaign too. Says to me they know they are seriously behind, but any tax cut announcement gets good press, even if the cuts are somewhat "aspirational" in that they are over 3-5 years.

    The old spendometer will get a serious work out from both parties in the next 6 weeks I reckon.

    The concern here for the government is that the RBA will see this and definately raise rates next month.

    Interesting times (pun intended).
    Yeah, it does.

    And wow, the tax cuts have come out...didn't see that coming

  12. #1392
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    I think that goes for any government mate.

    Huge tax cut announcement today by the government. Very early in the campaign too. Says to me they know they are seriously behind, but any tax cut announcement gets good press, even if the cuts are somewhat "aspirational" in that they are over 3-5 years.

    The concern here for the government is that the RBA will see this and definately raise rates next month.

    Interesting times (pun intended).
    The tax cuts don't come in until July next year. In my humble opinion, there is no possible way they will be taken into account when the RBA meets on Melbourne Cup day. The inflation figure on October 24 will be, overwhelmingly, the decisive factor as to whether rates move. The closer the figure is to 3%, the more likely the chance of a rate rise. Indeed, the last four or five rate rises have all occured at the first meeting immediately after an unfavourable quarterly CPI (inflation) figure has been released.

    Anyway, I think the reason for the early release of the tax policy today was two fold. Firstly, to return the focus to the Government's strength - economic management. Secondly, use it to try and ramp up the pressure on Rudd to release his tax policy, knowing full well that he'll release it in his own good time. In the meantime, the Libs will make the charge that you can't be serious about governing Australia without an alternative tax plan, and hope to get some traction with that.

  13. #1393
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    I think you're right on the reasons for the tax cuts now. I also think they may be trying to make the "narrowing" a self-fulfilling prophecy by making a big announcement now.
    These cuts remind me a bit of the old fist ful of dollars from 77. A few "ifs" and "buts" there, but that is to be expected I think.
    Interesting juxtaposition of the two leaders on ACA and with Red Kerry last night. I've noticed that the media have been on to the PM far less re. his interest rate gaffe than they were on KR re. the tax rates gaffe earlier.
    Re. rates, I suppose it will depend on whether the RBA takes a mid-long term view of it, or a short-mid term view. If the inflation rae is towards the higher end of acceptable and they factor int he tax cuts, there may be a rise, but if they don't factor them in as they don't kick off until July, then they may not rise.
    I think Labor will do a bit of a me too on the tax rates, given that the fiscal outlook only came out yesterday. I wouldn't, however, be surprised if they hive off, say $1 billion or $2 billion for extra hospital stuff and to maintain some aura of fiscal responsibility about things.

  14. #1394
    Global Moderator Matt79's Avatar
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    Lateline just had a dire story about a couple of academics predicting the permanent demise of the Liberal party if they lose this election - based upon apparent severe dissatisfaction within the state apparati at the centralisation of power with the federal exec under Howard and the supposed schism between the small l liberals and the social conservatives, followed by speculation about the emergence of a new centrist party.

    Gerard Henderson summed up the whole story in the 5 seconds they gave him near the end of it - "Its a nice theory for the academics in their uni campuses, but this is the real world". If the Libs lose, no doubt a lot of personality clashes and divisions that have been suppressed by common interest while they've held power would come to the fore - its a lot harder to maintain discipline when you've got nothing to lose. And if the Libs lose government, you'd think they'd lose a lot of the dominant figures in the party to retirement.

    But they wont disappear, they'll just do what every party in opposition does - flail around for a while with a succession of seemingly poor leaders, struggling to get airtime or any initiative in the agenda, until a reasonably solid new leader emerges at about the time when the public is souring on the imcumbent government. The new leader reinvents the party as all the bits you love with the bits you dislike supposedly jettisoned, like the Libs did in 96, and Rudd is doing now, and hey presto, he's a genius. The reality is that Oppositions can't win elections, they can only NOT lose them. For a change to happen, the Gov has to lose the election at the same time as an opposition not losing it.
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  15. #1395
    Cricketer Of The Year The Sean's Avatar
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    Gold post.

    Anyone would think you'd studied this kind of thing.
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