The Australian politics thread

[SirBloody Idiot]

Hearing a few whispers about the next State Senator for New South Wales.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by iamdavid

Disagree. I think it quite obviously wasn't his intention to go this early. He wanted to go about quietly undermining Gillard and allowing the polls to do their thing until about the end of this year, when said realisation that things were hopeless dawned upon caucus 6 months out from the election, and in desperation they turned to him.

But a bunch of labor MPs (most obviously Crean) got jack of what he was doing and called him out, plus the media blew it out of all proportion and it just became too big a distraction, so he was effectively forced to go now.

I vigorously disagree. When you have only one shot, and that shot is best fired close to an election, you don't let others determine the timing. To my mind, so what if Gillard was going to (a) sack him from Foreign Affiairs and (b) call a spill. The former would only have increased his martyrdom, while the latter would have weakened her leadership if nobody stood against her. He had one chance and one chance only...now it's gone.

[Spark]

Gillard wasn't going to sack him though. What she did do was make his position completely untenable and force him to play his hand.

[Burgey]

ICAC. $1 land deal, Maroubra.

Watch this space.

[Jono]

Gillard a prisoner of the polls and Rudd's inability to change

First comment to this article by Costello:

"at least he had a go"

[Burgey]

Haha, brilliant. And someone has linked in the low altitude flier clip from You Tube. Love it.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Jono

Gillard a prisoner of the polls and Rudd's inability to change

First comment to this article by Costello:

"at least he had a go"

Honestly just logged in specifically to post the article and the first comment

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Spark

Gillard wasn't going to sack him though. What she did do was make his position completely untenable and force him to play his hand.

I would have advised him to just stay, and not be the agressor. Most importantly, keep his shot in his locker.

Anyway, what a fall from grace....

He must just sit back and think: "How the hell did I go from being the most popular PM in Newspoll history in 2008, to a despised backbencher less than four years later?"

All the perks, the aides, living at the Lodge, the stimulation, the attention....just totally gone.

[iamdavid]

Originally Posted by howardj

I vigorously disagree. When you have only one shot, and that shot is best fired close to an election, you don't let others determine the timing. To my mind, so what if Gillard was going to (a) sack him from Foreign Affiairs and (b) call a spill. The former would only have increased his martyrdom, while the latter would have weakened her leadership if nobody stood against her. He had one chance and one chance only...now it's gone.

Disagree on both points.

He had to go now despite it not being his preferred course of action. He was backed into a corner, the fact that he'd been undermining the Government had been leaked to the media and he was being vigorously attacked by his own colleagues while he was abroad. His position as Foreign Minister was untenable. He had to resign and then given that his intentions had been exposed he had to contest the ballot which Gillard was always going to call, or risk looking like a huge drama queen and undermining his standing with the public, which is obviously the only currency he's got within caucus.

Sadly, for Labor and the country, I also don't believe the 'one shot in the locker' talk. He's made it abundantly clear that he's not going anywhere, and he's always going to harbour ambitions to lead again. If the Labor primary stays ~30% then he's going to stay in play, more so the closer we get to an election and the more panicky things get.

This last week has been a mess in public but it hasn't really changed anything within caucus. It was widely known that he was plotting and snipping to get the job back, but he's been building momentum within the party room in spite of that knowledge and if the polls stay bad he'll continue to do so. The week won't hurt his standing with the electorate at all given that he appeared publicly to be taking the moral high ground and reacting to aggression from the Gillard camp.

[social]

Originally Posted by howardj

I would have advised him to just stay, and not be the agressor. Most importantly, keep his shot in his locker.

Anyway, what a fall from grace....

He must just sit back and think: "How the hell did I go from being the most popular PM in Newspoll history in 2008, to a despised backbencher less than four years later?"

All the perks, the aides, living at the Lodge, the stimulation, the attention....just totally gone.

Judging by the attitude of Rudd (contrast his attitude yesterday to the day he was deposed), letters to the editor and the opinion polls, this hasnt done him any harm whatsoever.

However, the retention of a PM that the public doesnt want may have dealt a fatal blow to the ALP's election chances unless change happens down the track and guess who'll be there as lord and saviour should that be required

[Son Of Coco]

How many time do you reckon we'll hear the phrase 'faceless men' in the next year or so? My bet is 1,000,000+. Pollies have a 3 phrase limit when it comes to trying to score points. It's going to get ****ing annoying.

[Spikey]

let's say labor all of a sudden roar back in the polls (which is of course is as unlikely as a Sachin century) and so Abbott faces serious pressure, do the liberal faceless men act?

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by Spikey

let's say labor all of a sudden roar back in the polls (which is of course is as unlikely as a Sachin century) and so Abbott faces serious pressure, do the liberal faceless men act?

They couldn't go to Turnbull without a fiasco that would make the last week look like a kid's birthday party.

Would likely be the Shadow Dogwhistle for The White Man's Burden/ Typhus.

[Spark]

Oh please no. Hard to decide which I'd less prefer, him or Abbott...

[Spark]

Bizareness reigns. Apparently "Gillard offered Bob Carr Foreign Affairs last week & factional heavies forced her to back off"