Labor in an almost untenable position either way here.
If Rudd contests the poll and Gillard wins then the malaise and sense of instability won’t be evaporating any time soon, this is all political journos are going to be writing about for a couple of months. It’d be bad news whether Rudd festers on the backbench or resigns and reduces their majority to zip while throwing bile from the sidelines in a Lathamesque manner.
If Rudd somehow gets up then the majority of cabinet will have to disappear, and they’ll lose the services of their best parliamentary performer over the past five years in Gillard. Sadly that’d probably be the best outcome for the party’s electoral prospects though as at least it’d give them some opportunity to draw a line under all this and say ‘we were wrong, never should’ve dumped Kevin, forgive us, now let’s move on’.