The Australian politics thread

[morgieb]

Originally Posted by Spark

Considering the two weeks they've had, that probably counts as "great".

Nielsen had it at 53-47, ER at 54-46.

[Burgey]

Between August and say, December there was a an incremental swing back to Labor across the polls (from a very low base) but there's now little movement outside a 54-46 range, give or take the margin of error in any given poll.

[howardj]

Yep, the really crucial time for Gillard will be post-Budget (particularly with the return to surplus committment) and the weeks following the introduction of the Carbon tax. She needs some bounce from these things (May to August) to survive the traditional killing season (November-December preceding an election year).

[howardj]

And, if there is a bounce, I wouldn't rule out a change of leadership on the other side at year-end. Abbott is very much hostage to the polls. And, although it's true for most opposition leaders, I think it's especially true for Abbott, who is broadly speaking hard to warm to. Plus, if he sags in the polls, his positions on climate change and broadband will look out of step and not viable. Interesting times.

[Jono]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...214-1t2vj.html

Yes.

[Redbacks]

Originally Posted by howardj

And, if there is a bounce, I wouldn't rule out a change of leadership on the other side at year-end. Abbott is very much hostage to the polls.

I don't think the NSW disease is worth emulating.

[Redbacks]

Wow, the knives are well and truly out now

Video emerges of union boss at tent embassy protest - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

But a woman, confirmed to be Ms Sattler, tells embassy member Barbara Shaw that "Abbott's just made a statement to the press that the tent embassy should be pulled down".
.
.
.
She was first reported as having no part in the protest, then as saying she simply repeated what she had been told by Tony Hodges. She recanted after a call from the Prime Minister's office.

Yesterday she told ABC Radio that at no point did she say Mr Abbott had called for the embassy to be torn down.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Redbacks

I don't think the NSW disease is worth emulating.

I take your point, but two or three years (including one good shot at an election) is about the average life cycle for an Opp Leader.

[Spark]

Originally Posted by Redbacks

Wow, the knives are well and truly out now

Video emerges of union boss at tent embassy protest - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

But a woman, confirmed to be Ms Sattler, tells embassy member Barbara Shaw that "Abbott's just made a statement to the press that the tent embassy should be pulled down".
.
.
.
She was first reported as having no part in the protest, then as saying she simply repeated what she had been told by Tony Hodges. She recanted after a call from the Prime Minister's office.

Yesterday she told ABC Radio that at no point did she say Mr Abbott had called for the embassy to be torn down.

Well I suppose this is technically correct...

[howardj]

Whatever people think of the ABC Four Corners story the other night, it was good to see some real journalism - some research and detective work which uncovered two juicy morsels, namely that GIllard had been circulating anti-Rudd polling, and that a leadership speech was being prepared in her office quite some time before the spill.

News rather than comment dressed up as news.

[Spikey]

typical rubbish from the right wing loving abc iirc

[Spark]

Originally Posted by howardj

Whatever people think of the ABC Four Corners story the other night, it was good to see some real journalism - some research and detective work which uncovered two juicy morsels, namely that GIllard had been circulating anti-Rudd polling, and that a leadership speech was being prepared in her office quite some time before the spill.

News rather than comment dressed up as news.

Have trouble taking any program that cites Joe de Bruyn as a critical source seriously itbt.

[howardj]

It is on

[Son Of Coco]

If Rudd's dumb enough to challenge (and actually wins) then Labor can give up on the next election. People will get sick of him again within a couple of months as it'll be back to the same soundbites he used to dole out before. I honestly don't think he's a better option than Julia, but then she mightn't be too crash hot either.

Can't believe it's come back around to Rudd challenging again (if it actually has), the papers have been in love with the idea for the past few months though so it could be interesting.

[howardj]

Granted, I'm not an impartial observer, but I honestly think Rudd will give Labor something Costello would have given the Liberals in 2007, namely, a hearing. In 2007, people just switched off when Howard appeared on their TV screens; they did not listen. Gillard is at the same point. Labor will likely lose next year, but they very likely will lose under Gillard.