Between August and say, December there was a an incremental swing back to Labor across the polls (from a very low base) but there's now little movement outside a 54-46 range, give or take the margin of error in any given poll.
WWCC - Loyaulte Mi Lie
"People make me happy.. not places.. people"
"When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life." - Samuel Johnson
"Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself" - Tony Benn
#408. Sixty three not out forever.
Yep, the really crucial time for Gillard will be post-Budget (particularly with the return to surplus committment) and the weeks following the introduction of the Carbon tax. She needs some bounce from these things (May to August) to survive the traditional killing season (November-December preceding an election year).
- Winner of the 2011 and 2012 CricketWeb AFL tipping competition
- Winner of the 2011, 2012 and 2013 CricketWeb NRL tipping competition
And, if there is a bounce, I wouldn't rule out a change of leadership on the other side at year-end. Abbott is very much hostage to the polls. And, although it's true for most opposition leaders, I think it's especially true for Abbott, who is broadly speaking hard to warm to. Plus, if he sags in the polls, his positions on climate change and broadband will look out of step and not viable. Interesting times.
Last edited by howardj; 13-02-2012 at 07:49 PM.
"I am very happy and it will allow me to have lot more rice."
Eoin Morgan on being given a rice cooker for being Man of the Match in a Dhaka Premier Division game.
Wow, the knives are well and truly out now
Video emerges of union boss at tent embassy protest - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
But a woman, confirmed to be Ms Sattler, tells embassy member Barbara Shaw that "Abbott's just made a statement to the press that the tent embassy should be pulled down".
She was first reported as having no part in the protest, then as saying she simply repeated what she had been told by Tony Hodges. She recanted after a call from the Prime Minister's office.
Yesterday she told ABC Radio that at no point did she say Mr Abbott had called for the embassy to be torn down.
Whatever people think of the ABC Four Corners story the other night, it was good to see some real journalism - some research and detective work which uncovered two juicy morsels, namely that GIllard had been circulating anti-Rudd polling, and that a leadership speech was being prepared in her office quite some time before the spill.
News rather than comment dressed up as news.
Last edited by howardj; 15-02-2012 at 01:22 AM.
typical rubbish from the right wing loving abc iirc
Brad McNamara @bbuzzmc
Will say this once and then nothing else. Defamation laws quite clear in Aus.be careful.
If Rudd's dumb enough to challenge (and actually wins) then Labor can give up on the next election. People will get sick of him again within a couple of months as it'll be back to the same soundbites he used to dole out before. I honestly don't think he's a better option than Julia, but then she mightn't be too crash hot either.
Can't believe it's come back around to Rudd challenging again (if it actually has), the papers have been in love with the idea for the past few months though so it could be interesting.
"What is this what is this who is this guy shouting what is this going on in here?" - CP. (re: psxpro)
R.I.P Craigos, you were a champion bloke. One of the best
R.I.P Fardin 'Bob' Qayyumi
Member of the Church of the Holy Glenn McGrath
"How about you do something contstructive in this forum for once and not fill the forum with ****. You offer nothing." - theegyptian.
Granted, I'm not an impartial observer, but I honestly think Rudd will give Labor something Costello would have given the Liberals in 2007, namely, a hearing. In 2007, people just switched off when Howard appeared on their TV screens; they did not listen. Gillard is at the same point. Labor will likely lose next year, but they very likely will lose under Gillard.
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