The Australian politics thread

[Redbacks]

Turnbull on lateline

[Top_Cat]

With immigration in the news, I'm not surprised this had no legs but check it;

Pell does not have the gospel truth on climate change | Article | The Punch

Dr Ayers is like the Steve Waugh of climate science, quiet but if you're spouting bull****, he'll make you pay.

[Burgey]

Seems there is going to be a price on carbon.

[howardj]

I don't think she has a clue about the priorities of Australians. Anyone who lives outside a cave will tell you that the red hot issue in the community is the rise in cost of living, particularly utilities (not dual cabs etc, but electricity etc). She's taking ownership of every price rise from now until the next election. That she ruled out a carbon price before the election, and that Bobby Brown and Greybeard are with her all the way, will only aggravate the backlash.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by howardj

I don't think she has a clue about the priorities of Australians. Anyone who lives outside a cave will tell you that the red hot issue in the community is the rise in cost of living, particularly utilities (not dual cabs etc, but electricity etc). She's taking ownership of every price rise from now until the next election. That she ruled out a carbon price before the election, and that Bobby Brown and Greybeard are with her all the way, will only aggravate the backlash.

No she didn't. She ruled out a carbon tax.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Burgey

No she didn't. She ruled out a carbon tax.

Meant carbon tax, which in light of her declaration today is a more grevious, more direct breach of her pre election promise than if she was introducing an ETS next year.

At least if she was introducing an ETS before the next election, the Liberals would be snookered once it was introduced. You could never repeal an ETS (which was always Beazley's problem RE the GST after it was introduced in 2000) as it would be so embedded in the economy.

Arguably it would be easier to repeal a Carbon tax and a much simpler argument to make.

In the absence of significant carbon-reduction developments in the US, India and China, I think this thing will be a dog for Labor.

[howardj]

Michelle Grattan article tomorrow I'm tipping will uncover some speech made by opposition climate spokesman Greg Hunt back in his university days RE carbon. hahaha

under the headline "Coalition Spokesman Backflips on Carbon"

Seriously though, I think the climate change momentum here in Australia was very much bound up in the new fresh politics of Kevin Rudd. People were glad to see Howard go, and climate change/ETS was very much a part of the new politics, the new political landscape...and that it was in the lead up to Copenhagen too - which eventually flopped.

There was a momentum there, a mood, that's not there now.

The tide's gone out on this issue, so to speak.

[Spark]

Originally Posted by howardj

Meant carbon tax, which in light of her declaration today is a more grevious, more direct breach of her pre election promise than if she was introducing an ETS next year.

At least if she was introducing an ETS before the next election, the Liberals would be snookered once it was introduced. You could never repeal an ETS (which was always Beazley's problem RE the GST after it was introduced in 2000) as it would be so embedded in the economy.

Arguably it would be easier to repeal a Carbon tax and a much simpler argument to make.

In the absence of significant carbon-reduction developments in the US, India and China, I think this thing will be a dog for Labor.

Well that shouldn't be a problem then.

[howardj]

Nonetheless, the optics of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Bob Brown and Christine Milne while jacking up electricity prices...Jesus Christ man. Outside the cafes of Balmain and West End, there's no affection for Brown - a mere 12% of the vote at the last election. Gillard's sacrificing the middle ground at the alter of 'decision' and 'delivery'.

[James90]

Na. For mine the climate change issue is one that has been criminally underestimated by people such as yourself and several people within the Government.

It'll shift votes from the wrong areas (Labor preferencing Greens voters, the under 25s, those in the energy sector relying on certainty or incentives for renewables) sure, but I think the appeal for action on climate change does actually go a lot wider than that.

It's also a matter of credibility for JG as she needed to come up with something and working out an agreement with The Greens and independents was completely necessary for the minority Government to stay together for the full term.

[howardj]

I think the only thing that's been underestimated is how pissed off people are about rising prices, particularly utility prices. This tax will be a lightning rod for these increases, something that people can sheet them home to - regardless of whether the carbon tax is actually responsible or not.

As you say, it may get some votes flowing back to Labor from the Greens, but most of those come back in preferences anyway.

For middle of the road voters, I'd back the pain of rises (something they can feel, something which directly impacts them) to be more influential than the feelgood factor of cutting emissions (cuts that you can't feel or see, that don't directly impact your household like price rises do).

The GST stripped away something like 20 seats from Howard in 1998. This involves much bigger price rises than that.

Anyway, time will be judge.

[howardj]

Agree with you though that she couldn't be seen to be walking away from this issue the way that Rudd did. Good point.

[Burgey]

How do you know how much it will cost? The cost of it hasn't even been announced.

Alan Jones apparently was upset with JG this morning as she was late. Had another interview. Lol.. Poor Alan. The other day he ticked off Fatty O'Barrell for not wearing a tie.

[howardj]

It would have to at least be $20 per tonne, it was $26 under Rudd's aborted scheme.

[Burgey]

Here's Jonesy with JG this morning. It's hilarious.