Back to seat previews....
Current MP: Patrick Secker (Liberal)
2007 margin: 9.45 to Liberal
History: This rural seat has been around since 1903. It is very safe for the Liberals, with no Labor member ever winning it.
Candidates: Secker will probably run again, no word on the other candidates.
Observation: Before last election, its margin was near 20%. It’s a very safe electorate, and I can’t see Labor ever winning it.
Prediction: Liberal win
Current MP: Robert McClelland (ALP)
2007 margin: 12.10 to the ALP
History: In the past, this was sometimes won by the Liberals (although normally won by the ALP), but in recent years it has become significantly safer for Labor. It is unlikely that Liberal will ever win it back. Apparently, in 1925, the winner of the seat was a murderer.
Candidates: McClelland is running again, no word on other candidates.
Observation: This is definitely Labor heaven now. Can’t see the Libs ever touching this.
Prediction: Labor win
Current MP: Jodie Campbell (ALP)
2007 margin: 1.00 to the ALP
History: A marginal seat, with Labor and Liberal often winning this Launceston seat. It has been around since 1903. This seat was also the trigger for the end of the Whitlam government, with Liberal recording a massive swing in the 1975 by-election.
Candidates: Campbell is not re-contesting the seat, instead Geoff Lyons is running. Newsreader Steve Titmus is running for the Libs, with Sancia Colgrave running for the Greens.
Observation: This seat is marginal by a fair way. Won by the Libs in 2004 over the logging controversy, it was won by the ALP in 2007. Now, people are calling this close, although I reckon that Labor will just get over the line. Apparently, there was an 11% swing to Labor in a Morgan poll, but I have my doubts over the accuracy of it.
Prediction: It’ll depend on what the Greens think. Will be very close, winner might not be found for a couple of weeks after the election.
Incumbent MP: Martin Ferguson (ALP), current Minister for Resources, Energy and Tourism.
2007 margin: 25.95 to the ALP, the safest ALP seat in Australia.
History: A very safe seat for the ALP, with Liberal only winning it twice in 100+ years. This electorate was originally called North Melbourne, before it got renamed to Batman in 1906 after Melbourne’s founder, not the comic book hero.
Candidates: Alex Bhatnal is the Greens candidate. You’d assume that Martin Ferguson will run again.
Observation: Although it may appear the safest seat in Australia, and the Labor primary vote is higher than seats with similar demographics, it shouldn’t be taken for granted. Outside of Melbourne, this is the Greens second best Victorian seat, with them only polling 3% less than Liberal. There’s no reason why the Greens won’t finish 2nd on 2PP, although I doubt they’ll win it.
Prediction: Labor win, but the Greens may overtake the Libs and make the seat more marginal.
Disappointed in you Julia.
"I am very happy and it will allow me to have lot more rice."
Eoin Morgan on being given a rice cooker for being Man of the Match in a Dhaka Premier Division game.
Had to be done.
Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity.
Too many bones, not enough CASH!!
Andrew Bolt just said on SkyNews that these people without papers are flying to Indonesia then catching a leaky boat to Australia. He said it, truly he did.
WWCC - Loyaulte Mi Lie
"People make me happy.. not places.. people"
"When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life." - Samuel Johnson
"Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself" - Tony Benn
#408. Sixty three not out forever.
Did you know Andrew Bolt actually gets paid for the stuff he says and writes!? Someone actually treats it like it's a real job
"What is this what is this who is this guy shouting what is this going on in here?" - CP. (re: psxpro)
R.I.P Craigos, you were a champion bloke. One of the best
R.I.P Fardin 'Bob' Qayyumi
Member of the Church of the Holy Glenn McGrath
"How about you do something contstructive in this forum for once and not fill the forum with ****. You offer nothing." - theegyptian.
However, I was wrong when I assumed One Nation was such a party; it was just racist to its core from the beginning. I do remember our discussion about it - you quoted lines from Pauline's opening address IIRC.
Last edited by Prince EWS; 06-07-2010 at 03:27 AM.
GOOD OLD COLLINGWOOD - PREMIERS IN 2010Originally Posted by Irfan
Is Cam White, Is Good.
Does anyone think it's ironic that Gillard and Abbott are bagging out immigrants, yet they were immigrants as well?
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