The Australian politics thread

[James90]

The issue with Qld is that the coast line goes a long way west. The SE corner is further east than Melbourne and thus has quite substancial daylight losing. It wouldn't make in the west or up north in areas like Cairns which are close to the equator and surprisingly west.

The reason why it makes sense to split the state is that at the moment, the number of people who travel from Tweed Heads to the Gold Coast to work is much greater than people travelling between say...Gladstone and Bundaberg.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Burgey

Do it every day anyway mate (well, 5.30 anyway). Depends what you're used to tbh.

Also depends on your tolerance for when a great big yellow-orange ball of ****ing fire sends light blazing through your bedroom window. I'm hopeless... first sign of the sun, I wake up - used to have double-backed curtains to stop me waking early. Others can sleep through it.

Downside is I haven't had a sleep in when sober since about 1999. So used to getting up early on weekdays that when it comes the weekend, unless I've had a skinful the night before, just cannot do it. Am hoping to re-discover the sleep-in shortly.

That perfectly describes me as well.

Ever since I started work back in 2001, I just can not sleep in.

Even on weekends, like today, I'm up with the sparrows.

[James90]

Just voted in my first plebicite. Democracy is the winner.

[Matt79]

Yep, now you're one of the plebes...

[howardj]

Pedalling to the Lodge!

42-39 to the Coalition on the primary vote!

[Matt79]

Nice selective quotation

"''While this is a good result for the Coalition, the only statistically significant changes since March were an increased Green vote and a decline in popularity for the Leader of the Opposition,'' Mr Stirton said."

We haven't even seen Abbott tested yet.

[howardj]

It's AC Neilsen though, so she's probably more likely a 10 point primary lead.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by howardj

It's AC Neilsen though, so she's probably more likely a 10 point primary lead.

Yeah, only Newspoll and Dennis Shanahan's interpretation thereof matter. Fair and balanced.

Weird distribution of preferences in this one. 3 per cent swing from Labor to the Greens, no move to the Libs on primaries.

Those preferences will go straight back to Labor in the real world. No one who gives their first vote from Labor to the Greens could ever give their second to the Wingnut Troglodyte.

Would like to see how they distributed the preferences here.

[howardj]

Dennis is always an easy target, I guess.

But I'm more on the polling results though, than the reporting of it.

I mean, 58-42 ACNeilsen on the morning of the last Election.

They obviously can only report the results they get in the field. But there has to be something wrong with their sample or something to get a result like that, particularly in an Election campaign (when the polls traditionally narrow).

[howardj]

Boo

[Matt79]

Now, if they can just find a way to keep the Mad Monk on his bicycle, and away from where the grown-ups are talking, for the rest of the year!

[Burgey]

**** I love Dennis.

The beauty of him is, he knows every stat he's quoted there is within the MOE of the last poll, yet he still spins it. It's hilarious.

I remember in the lead up to 07 when Rudd led Howard by 10 points on PPM (which had, until he took over the lead been, according to Dennis, THE measure that mattered) and by 8 on TPP (which had apparently been the only one that mattered before the ALP hit the lead there). Dennis spun it beautifully - the poll didn't move from the previous one, but apparently Rudd was in strife because there had been a 2% move back to the Libs on"better economic manager" which was the "real measure that matters".

It was pure gold.

Bottom line I think (but who can be certain?) is this. They're a first term government. Barring the arse falling completely out fo the economy, it's very unlikely they'll get punted I'd think. It's just the way it seems to go.

And moreover, if the worst that can be said for them is some dodgy roof installations, and 130 complaints about school projects out of 28,000 odd projects, then frankly they probably don't deserve to go. Debt won't wash this campaign as an issue, will be nullified by being the only place not in recession and by Barack saying how tops Ruddy is. It may well the next one though, it should be said.

Unless Rudd decides to raise the GST or something, I don't think he'll lose.

Then again, who knows? That's what makes it so interesting I suppose.

[Jono]

Simon Sheikh > Scott Morrison

[benchmark00]

It was a little more than just 'dodgy roof installations', particularly when people's lives were lost and others endangered as a result of the governments total ineptitude with regards to organising and implementing a scheme, which is a reocurring theme in the Education scamolution it seems.

The most disappointing thing about the bungled pink bats issue is the blatant shunning of the principles governing rsponsible government, in particular ministerial accountability. Long gone are the days where if you stuffed up as big as Peter Gazz did you'd be turfed. And that is very, very sad.

Having said that, I agree with your general point. I can't (unfortunately) see the government being defeated in the election, however I do expect a somewhat significant swing towards the better washed party of the two.

[benchmark00]

BTW, keen for the Kristina Keneally FHM shoot when she's defeated at the next state election.