The Australian politics thread

[Mr Casson]

Originally Posted by howardj

At least there's a contest in Canberra now. I think what the last few months has shown is the value of having a leader who is a politician - rather than a Doctor or a Banker. Turnbull just didn't know politics, much in the same vein as Hewson. By contrast, Abbott is a politician to his bootstraps and understands what you have to do in Opposition. Some of his lines are already cutting through: "great big new tax"; "all talk, no action".

As I say, politics (like accounting, teaching, lawyering) is a profession. You can tell the practitioners from those who are merely in the profession.

That's what depresses me about politics actually.

It's just a game, and the guys who get to the top know how to play it. They don't lead the country because they know how to make anything actually happen.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Burgey

Haven't looked mate. Is it Abbott slagging Bernie Banton?

Oh that's right, he only wants us to judge him from the time he takes over the leadership.

Novel appraoch - Rudd should have ****ed that stripper in New York.

Behold Abbott - the Tory's own Mark Latham.

The difference with Abbott though is that he's more of a known quantity. That is, having been a long-time Minister, people have a higher regard for his competence than they had for Latham who they were largely being asked to take on trust. I also think Abbott's plain speaking is a good contrast to Rudd's evasiveness and lack of directness.

Anyway, it's fantastic that at last Rudd's great big new tax and its accompanying compensation is being held to the same scrutiny as Howard's great big new tax (the GST) was back in 1998-2000.

Rudd's gone for the spin cycle too early (e.g. toasting celebrity babies just months after being elected) and before having made any substantial reforms. As a result, the media is already starting to get sick of his froth and bubble.

The spin and distraction should be left until later in your tenure.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by howardj

The difference with Abbott though is that he's more of a known quantity. That is, having been a long-time Minister, people have a higher regard for his competence than they had for Latham who they were largely being asked to take on trust. I also think Abbott's plain speaking is a good contrast to Rudd's evasiveness and lack of directness.

Anyway, it's fantastic that at last Rudd's great big new tax and its accompanying compensation is being held to the same scrutiny as Howard's great big new tax (the GST) was back in 1998-2000.

Rudd's gone for the spin cycle too early (e.g. toasting celebrity babies just months after being elected) and before having made any substantial reforms. As a result, the media is already starting to get sick of his froth and bubble.

The spin and distraction should be left until later in your tenure.

Hmm, from a junkie's pov, Abbott is gold because he's nothing if not entertaining.

Still backing Rudd unless the economy goes south though. Abbott's CC policy for this week will cost people a ****load anyway. Will be fun though, and as it's an election year the stakes are high so I'm always nervous.

[Craig]

So when do people think the election will happen? I would say late October or early November.

[Son Of Coco]

Originally Posted by Burgey

Hmm, from a junkie's pov, Abbott is gold because he's nothing if not entertaining.

Still backing Rudd unless the economy goes south though. Abbott's CC policy for this week will cost people a ****load anyway. Will be fun though, and as it's an election year the stakes are high so I'm always nervous.

Yeah, I thought it was funny when Abbott became leader too...over the years he's come across as a bit of a fool with some of the things he's said. All of a sudden he's the leader of the party and people are supposed to forget what's come before and just take him on what he says now. I don't think so Tony. Will be surprised if he wins the election, but also a bit scared.

As Casson said, it's a pity professional politicians end up in positions of power as, at the end of the day, what they actually achieve generally comes down to sweet **** all. They jockey for position at the start, cruise around a couple of circuits of the course, and then it's a free-for-all at the end when money and power comes into it.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Craig

So when do people think the election will happen? I would say late October or early November.

The two dates locked in for an election this year are:

South Australia - 20 March and
Victoria - 27 November.

If Rudd calls a DD election before July, then his second term will be shortened to two years (for some unknown reason).

Therefore, taking account of all the above, I think you're looking at an August-October window. November-December is out as it overlaps with Victoria.

I'd say October, and not a DD election either. You really have to have a hot button issue to justify a DD election. With Climate Change going sour for the government, I just don't think they have that hot button issue to justify a DD.

[Craig]

I saw on the 7pm project on Monday that George Negus is of the opinion that elections should be held exactly three years after the date they were elected on. Or the nearest weekend to make it exactly three years.

[howardj]

I like the speculation surrounding the date, and that the incumbent has the luxury of choosing the timing.

Sad, I know.

[James90]

I'm a big fan of fixed four year terms wherever possible. Means the incumbents can't pick and choose a time that suits them and allows them to actually get some work done rather than playing populist politics and watching the polls (which I know they'll still do but you'd think less so)

Anyway. Gillard said last week that it'll be in the second half of the year and for the reasons listed by HJ as well as the fact that a DD would mean that quota essentially halves (so people like Pauline Hanson and Fielding would get into the Senate) means that it'll be a normal election in August.

I've already got money on it being in August. Was paying $7.00 at the time. I also got on Abbott being leader when he was $4.75 so I think my political opinion counts for something.

[Craig]

Out of interest, is your political punting success the same as your sports punting?

[James90]

Better.

Although my sport betting is going through a good fluctuation at the moment after it was horrendous throughout most/all of 2009.

[Mr Casson]

Originally Posted by James90

Better.

Although my sport betting is going through a good fluctuation at the moment after it was horrendous throughout most/all of 2009.

The tables really have turned.

[age_master]

Originally Posted by James90

I'm a big fan of fixed four year terms wherever possible. Means the incumbents can't pick and choose a time that suits them and allows them to actually get some work done rather than playing populist politics and watching the polls (which I know they'll still do but you'd think less so)

All of NSW disagrees with this idea.

[Craig]

So those that live in NSW or know it better then I do, do Labor have a good chance they get re-elected, or are they that dire, it is almost certain that the Liberal and National Partys will get elected?

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by Craig

So those that live in NSW or know it better then I do, do Labor have a good chance they get re-elected, or are they that dire, it is almost certain that the Liberal and National Partys will get elected?

They're so bad that Fatty O'Barrell only needs not to wear speedos to romp it in.

And Fatty's so bland, when he has a coffee in Phillip Street, no one knows he's there.