ALP won't win the next federal election although it may be close. The Liberals campaign far to well, Iraq may be over and forgotten by then (in the publics eyes) and unless a scandel or two come out or the economy goes down the drain, Howard should comfortably win. Even if Iraq is still going on by then, I don't think it will be a massive factor. The IR reforms didn't ruin Howard at all. He's pretty much untouchable from here although anything can happen between then and now.
In Victoria Labor will win so damn easily. It's a massivley forgone result. Baillieu is throwing around billions, but he looks desperate. Bracks is untouchable, the Liberal party has been in shambles for the past 6 years and I can't see a Liberal win in the next 10 years.