The Australian politics thread

[pasag]

ALP won't win the next federal election although it may be close. The Liberals campaign far to well, Iraq may be over and forgotten by then (in the publics eyes) and unless a scandel or two come out or the economy goes down the drain, Howard should comfortably win. Even if Iraq is still going on by then, I don't think it will be a massive factor. The IR reforms didn't ruin Howard at all. He's pretty much untouchable from here although anything can happen between then and now.

In Victoria Labor will win so damn easily. It's a massivley forgone result. Baillieu is throwing around billions, but he looks desperate. Bracks is untouchable, the Liberal party has been in shambles for the past 6 years and I can't see a Liberal win in the next 10 years.

[FaaipDeOiad]

Originally Posted by Slow Love™

Where do you think that'll happen? In spite of gross incompetence and various scandals, it's still more than likely that the ALP will get returned in NSW. Vic is safe, and I think QLD will be for a little while. I guess I can see WA going - I'm probably not aware enough of the issues in SA.

I guess NT will quite possibly change hands too, when it comes to the territorials.

I'm not necessarily expecting many states to change hands, but I do expect that the ALP will lose out somewhat in most of them, excluding Vic perhaps. Fair chance NSW could change hands, but there's always hope.

[Dasa]

Originally Posted by pasag

In Victoria Labor will win so damn easily. It's a massivley forgone result. Baillieu is throwing around billions, but he looks desperate. Bracks is untouchable, the Liberal party has been in shambles for the past 6 years and I can't see a Liberal win in the next 10 years.

I don't know about that. I could see a Liberal win in 2010 if (big if) Baillieu is still at the helm.

Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad

I'm not necessarily expecting many states to change hands, but I do expect that the ALP will lose out somewhat in most of them, excluding Vic perhaps. Fair chance NSW could change hands, but there's always hope.

The ALP will definitely lose a few seats this time around...not enough to make a difference, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of those Eastern suburbs seats change hands.

[FaaipDeOiad]

Originally Posted by Dasa

Although I'd consider myself part of the Left, I've never actually voted Labor. At state level I could consider voting Liberal although I won't be this time. In general, despite criticism, I think Bracks has done a fair job of it in his time in office - certainly better than the Liberals would have in the issues that I care about most.
At federal level, no matter what's going on with Labor I don't know if I could bring myself to vote or preference the Libs.

Despite being an actual party member for a while, I've only voted Labor once myself, which was in the last federal election with Latham in charge. I doubt I'll go ALP first next federal election with Beazley in charge, but I'll always preference them ahead of the Coalition, for obvious reasons.

[pasag]

Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad

I'm not necessarily expecting many states to change hands, but I do expect that the ALP will lose out somewhat in most of them, excluding Vic perhaps. Fair chance NSW could change hands, but there's always hope.

How much effect is the Orkopoulos scandal estimated to have on the party btw? Enough to swing an election?

[pasag]

Originally Posted by Dasa

I don't know about that. I could see a Liberal win in 2010 if (big if) Baillieu is still at the helm.

Yeah, but the main problem is the massive amounts of factions and in-fighting in the party. If he can get everyone in the party in line, then yeah, he'd have a chance. Big 'if' though.

[Hoggy31]

When's the next election?

[Johnners]

Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad

The ALP will surely win the next federal election, even with Beazley in charge.

God help Australia if Kim Beazley ever becomes the Prime-Minsiter

[FaaipDeOiad]

Originally Posted by Clapo

God help Australia Kim Beazley becomes the Prime-Minsiter

Hey, I don't like him either, but he'll be a step up.

[Hoggy31]

Why doesn't Steve Waugh just run for PM already, fair dinkum.

[Johnners]

Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad

Hey, I don't like him either, but he'll be a step up.

AFAIAC he's don't nothing to show it.

[Johnners]

Originally Posted by Hoggy31

Why doesn't Steve Waugh just run for PM already, fair dinkum.

Would do a helluva lot better Job than Akermanis or any of the other Sports Personalities that have said they want to go into politics imo.

[pasag]

Originally Posted by Clapo

God help Australia if Kim Beazley ever becomes the Prime-Minsiter

Theres little difference between him and Howard ideology wise and theres no proof to say he wouldn't do a good job. In fact I think he would be ok. I wouldn't be too upset if he was the next PM althugh I can't see it happening.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad

Despite being an actual party member for a while, I've only voted Labor once myself, which was in the last federal election with Latham in charge.

I don't like the Liberal Part at all, and see myself pretty left with most issues (barring a few economic ones), but I can't for the life of me see how anyone with any knowledge of politics could have voted someone like Latham in. Someone so volatile like him was never going to win. Howard may be awful, but from a leadership P.O.V, I'd rather him at the helm than Latham, and in hindsight its fairly obvious why.

[ash chaulk]

probably the worst thread ever... way more boring then cricket