The Australian politics thread

[Top_Cat]

tbh... University Liberal girls, with their enhanced understanding of batheing and willingness to be impressed by flashy materialism when compared to the lefty ladies, are the only reason I ever understood for displaying an interest in conservative politics...

With the leftie girls, the occasional well-placed Che or Greer quote made even alcohol redundant in my experience.

[Craig]

Lol at the DT busting Labor's actors who pretend to be 'real people'. I felt it was a load of BS anyway.

[howardj]

This whole thing can only end in tears on Saturday.

Anyway, as far as predictions go, there are 150 seats - thus you need 76 to govern. The current landscape is Coalition 87; Labor 60; Independents 3. Note that one independent has passed away, and thus the number in the next Parliament will likely be pared back to 2.

Therefore, I'm predicting:

Labor 80
Coalition 68
Independents 2

[Top_Cat]

Geez mate, you reckon Labour is going to take 20 seats? Not feeling very optimistic, are we?

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Top_Cat

Geez mate, you reckon Labour is going to take 20 seats? Not feeling very optimistic, are we?

Mate, I've waded my way through all the stages of grief about this thing - the final one of which is acceptance.

[Bracken]

Originally Posted by howardj

This whole thing can only end in tears on Saturday.

Anyway, as far as predictions go, there are 150 seats - thus you need 76 to govern. The current landscape is Coalition 87; Labor 60; Independents 3. Note that one independent has passed away, and thus the number in the next Parliament will likely be pared back to 2.

Therefore, I'm predicting:

Labor 80
Coalition 68
Independents 2

I made my picks a few weeks ago, but I think they still hold up.

Labor gains: Kingston (LIB), Bonner (LIB), Wakefield (LIB), Parramatta (LIB), Makin (LIB), Braddock (LIB), Hasluck (LIB), Stirling (LIB), Wentworth (LIB), Bass (LIB), Moreton (LIB), Solomon (CLP), Lindsay (LIB), Eden-Monaro (LIB), Dobell (LIB), Deakin (LIB), Corangamite (LIB), Page (NAT), Blair (LIB), La Trobe (LIB), Herbert (LIB), Kalgoorlie (LIB).

Liberal gains: Cowan (ALP)

Labor: 81

Coalition: 67 (Liberals 55, Nationals 12)

Independents-2

I think that the Libs will hold Bennelong on the strength of having the Prime Minister as the sitting member, Wentworth will fall on Greens preferences, and Cowan will change hands on the basis of a strong Liberal candidate and a retiring popular ALP member.

The only other seat that may be a big call is Kalgoorlie, which is nominally a safe Liberal seat. Over 17% of the registered voters didn't vote in 2004, and the size of the electorate and the variability of the margin between the various booths would suggest to me that there is a modicum of volatility in that electorate. I think that there is more than enough potential for it to be a bit of a boilover.

If I was a Liberal strategist, I would also have a few sleepless nights over Sturt, McEwen and Paterson, as well. All are nominally safe Liberal, but depending on which way the undecideds go on election day, they could be at risk.

[vic_orthdox]

Supposedly ALP struggling in WA, may be a chance of losing some seats there.

[Craig]

Actually Queensland is meant to be a tough one for the ALP to crack. If I were to vote I tend to go towards Liberal, although I think both campaigns have been dire. Although I think it is disgraceful that you can go to Estonia and take your lap-top with you go to a park in the Old Town of the capital Tallinn and send an SMS to the council and they will send an SMS back with your username and password and you have a free wi-fi area to browse the net. So you could post on CW if you wanted or do anything, and yet in Australia we don't have that.

How bogan are we?

[Bracken]

Originally Posted by vic_orthdox

Supposedly ALP struggling in WA, may be a chance of losing some seats there.

Two seats at best. Cowan and Swan are the only two that are a realistic risk.

[Craig]

Heard this gem at work today:

I was telling some dude at lunch awhen I came to a page in the paper about the election and said how funny would it be if Liberals got in and John Howard lost his seat. To which said workmate pointed to the picture of Howard and said is he in the Liberals?

And to think he is voting this weekend

[Dark Hunter]

Wow. Dirtiest trick of the campaign?

[vic_orthdox]

Can anyone tell me what time booths open on Saturday? So annoying when you've got to play cricket an hour away at 11am.

[Bracken]

Originally Posted by Dark Hunter

Wow. Dirtiest trick of the campaign?

ABC is reporting that one of the campaign workers is Jackie Kelly's husband.

[pasag]

Haha, tbh as disgusting as that is, it's rather smart.

Anyways, have to go vote either tomorrow or Friday at an early voting booth since i didn't send in my postal vote request form. Filled it out a month ago but has been sitting on my desk ever since.

[Matt79]

Sent in my vote on Monday night...