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Thread: The Australian politics thread

  1. #1561
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad View Post
    I wear ties that are coloured yellow...
    I just threw mine out!
    WWCC - Loyaulte Mi Lie
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  2. #1562
    International Regular Josh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    I just threw mine out!

  3. #1563
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post

    HJ, I still see this election campaign from both sides as pretty disappointing, but with all due respect especially the coaltition. Their messages have really been all over the place, and I would have thought they'd have responded in a more coherent way to the rates thing.

    ".
    Yeah, sorry for not replying earlier - have been on annual leave for the last week, only got back today. I think one of the key reasons that a campaign either works or doesn't work, is the extent to which it is tied back to something that is tangible to voters. The campaigns of 1993, 1998 (both anti-GST) and 2004 (interest rates) worked so well because they were tied back to something tangible - the amount of cash people would have/wouldn't have in their pockets.

    This year the Coalition is principally targetting unions. While I'm sure some people are discomforted by the union domination in the Labor ranks, my view is that because it's not really tied back to anything tangible, it's not really a vote changer. I mean, of itself, unionism doesn't threaten people's living standards.

    By contrast, Labor's campaign (built as it is around Workchoices and the claim that it could be taken further) is more effective because it is tied back to something more tangible to voters - their take home pay.

  4. #1564
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    I think you're right.

    I wonder whether the attempted hit list wedge will work? Kelly fell for it but recanted. I can't see Rudd going for it as he's been wedge-proof all year.

    ACN polling yesterday and today, so the govt may get something out of it as it will likely not take ALP launch into consideration.

    Without displaying hubris on my part, imo this election is now very clearly Rudd's to lose, unless there's a bolt from the blue.


  5. #1565
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Could be time for the Embassy Rooftop Strategy: http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.c...p_strategy.htm

  6. #1566
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    I actually thought Rudd might spend more today. I actually thought his launch announcements were quite moderate.

    IMO he needs to emphasise the fact that his education rebate is payable to those with kids in private schools.

    He's actually delivered a bit of an economic management wedge to Howard. he can claim the moral high ground re. not spending as much.

    Depends on how many voters can be "porked" to borrow a term.

  7. #1567
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    He didn't spend as much during the campaign launch, as distinct from the overall campaign, where they have both spent roughly $12 billion. Anyway, I'd ramp up the spending if I was Howard and maybe look to increase the Coalition's already more generous education rebate. He really needs to provide a point of large difference and appeal to people's greed. (safe in the knowledge that, to prove his economic credentials, Rudd will have to be more restrained). You don't just lose quietly. Go down swinging. Granted, it will place slightly more pressure on inflation in 2009, but I would back people to take cash from the rebate and worry about an interest rate rise if and when it happens. Put simply, if I was the Coalition, I'd take a risk - it's certain oblivion otherwise.

  8. #1568
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Top_Cat's Avatar
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    He didn't spend as much during the campaign launch, as distinct from the overall campaign, where they have both spent roughly $12 billion. Anyway, I'd ramp up the spending if I was Howard and maybe look to increase the Coalition's already more generous education rebate. He really needs to provide a point of large difference and appeal to people's greed. (safe in the knowledge that, to prove his economic credentials, Rudd will have to be more restrained). You don't just lose quietly. Go down swinging. Granted, it will place slightly more pressure on inflation in 2009, but I would back people to take cash from the rebate and worry about an interest rate rise if and when it happens. Put simply, if I was the Coalition, I'd take a risk - it's certain oblivion otherwise.
    I disagree. It's always so hard to get past the incumbent. Sure, people might be outraged at the anti-union stuff by the Coalition and sick of rate rises but when it comes down to having that pen in your hand and about to commit a vote to paper, just by virtue of being in for so long and being part of a strong economy, the Libs will still be tough to beat. There are other issues too; I think people look at Howard as tougher than Rudd. That sort of base-level psychology in chosing someone is hard to overcome. This election is far from over and will absolutely go down the wire I reckon.

    For the record, Libs won't get getting my vote (likely never will) but I think it's too close to call.
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  9. #1569
    World Traveller Craig's Avatar
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    TBH this anti-Union stuff is getting boring for mine (as I type one comes up on TV), I want to hear more policy then scare mongering. My opinons on Unions are well known, but this is just getting quite tiresome.
    Beware the lollipop of mediocrity. Lick once and you suck forever...

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  10. #1570
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Neilsen 54-46. Sample size not known, but 100% taken after libs launch, only 10% after ALP launch.

    0% taken after disgraceful, corrupt government rorting of grants scheme.

    Should be Morgan (useless) tomorrow, maybe a Galaxy and Newspoll Monday/ Tuesday.

    JH spent $9.3 billion at his launch and got a 1% bounce. By my reckoning, that's approximately $80, 000 per vote.

    Could it finally be.....

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=CBdCO5S0_kI

  11. #1571
    International Regular Josh's Avatar
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    In all seriousness, relating back to "that" photo. It's good to see Peter awake for something in parliament.

  12. #1572
    International Regular Josh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Craig View Post
    TBH this anti-Union stuff is getting boring for mine (as I type one comes up on TV), I want to hear more policy then scare mongering. My opinons on Unions are well known, but this is just getting quite tiresome.
    It's not proving much.

  13. #1573
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Josh View Post
    It's not proving much.
    It's proving their message isn't cutting through.

    And now Abbott. This morning he says his comments were great, now he says they were cut and spliced. Which is it Tone? I know someone who was there, and he also said at the meeting "Basically, if you're poor it's because you want to be". What a wonderful nation-builder this man is. And a stunning campaigner.

    See, there's nothign to gain politically from making those comments, so like his remarks re Bernie Banton, they really just show what a cast-iron, mean-spirited d*ckhead he is. I mean, he wanted to be a priest?

    Abbott and Workchoices: the gifts which keep on giving. To the ALP.

  14. #1574
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Top_Cat's Avatar
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    It's proving their message isn't cutting through.
    Might have something to with it the message being total rubbish. Calling ex-union ALP members 'anti-business' seems like such an old-fashioned tag they may as well be using 'better dead than red' as their catch-phrase.

  15. #1575
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Cat View Post
    Might have something to with it the message being total rubbish. Calling ex-union ALP members 'anti-business' seems like such an old-fashioned tag they may as well be using 'better dead than red' as their catch-phrase.
    Well, it worked in the 50s and 60s.



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