The Australian politics thread

[Burgey]

Newspoll 53-47.

Primary: 47-42

PPM 47-43.

Curious Galaxy had ALP primary at 45% with a 54%TPP result. this poll has primary @ 47% with 53% tpp.

Therefore, 11% "other". 6% = greesn, 80-90% of that would go to ALP. If you then go 50-50 on the rest, it should be a 54.1-54.9 result.

Weird, but then Newspoll has been bouncing around lately. All within MOE of a 54-55 result, but i think it's around 54 now.

I'll take a 47% primary on 24/11. Still, libs are in it.

Looks like Garrett & Abbott largely cancelled each other out.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Burgey

Newspoll 53-47.

Primary: 47-42

PPM 47-43.

Curious Galaxy had ALP primary at 45% with a 54%TPP result. this poll has primary @ 47% with 53% tpp.

Therefore, 11% "other". 6% = greesn, 80-90% of that would go to ALP. If you then go 50-50 on the rest, it should be a 54.1-54.9 result.

Weird, but then Newspoll has been bouncing around lately. All within MOE of a 54-55 result, but i think it's around 54 now.

I'll take a 47% primary on 24/11. Still, libs are in it.

Looks like Garrett & Abbott largely cancelled each other out.

This is the best explanation I've found for the distribution of preferences in this poll:

In comparing the distribution of minor party preferences in 2004 with the distribution shown by this poll, they are in fact broadly consistent. In 2004 the Coalition got 38% of all minor party preferences. In this poll they are given 45%. Given that a lot of Green voters seem to have gone back to Labor, leaving a more conservative bunch of minors (Dems, CDP, FF, ON, gun-nuts etc), that is a reasonable split.

Nevertheless, to my mind, the Coalition really does need to shave 3% off Labor's primary vote to have a good chance on 24/11. At least this poll keeps Coalition morale up. It would have collapsed through the floor with a 57/43 followed by an interest rate rise tomorrow. Importantly, the poll also keeps alive Coalition 'win expectations' (although they are pretty low) amongst the media and the public. This is important, because if nobody thinks you can win, then everything you do and say is viewed through the prism of desperation and cynicism. The fact that they are perceived to be on the comeback trail, at least gives them some sort of credibility in this respect.

[howardj]

Post-interest rate rise and only two weeks out from the election, there has never been a more important round of opinion polls than across the next few days. How people react to the interest rate rise will determine if the election is a cliffhanger or a Ruddslide.

Unless I'm mistaken:

AC Nielsen - tomorrow
Galaxy - Monday
Newspoll - Tuesday

[Son Of Coco]

...And another hissy fit from Downer about Rudd using Chinese in an interview. Does anyone think this reflects favourably on Downer and does the Liberals any favours?Or does it come across a little like one of Cinderella's ugly sisters madly swinging her handbag?

Obviously, I'd go for the latter

[Mr Casson]

Seems odd to me that it would be Downer of all people to say that. As the Foreign Minister he has to deal with the Chinese more than most and you would hardly think they would be enamoured with him after getting cranky at Rudd because he's able to engage with the Chinese in their own language. Downer has made himself look like a cranky old curmudgeon while Rudd comes out the real winner. This is like watching an under-7s soccer game: the team that is losing beyond salvation is resigned to defeat and has taken to accusing the opposition of cheating instead.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by howardj

Post-interest rate rise and only two weeks out from the election, there has never been a more important round of opinion polls than across the next few days. How people react to the interest rate rise will determine if the election is a cliffhanger or a Ruddslide.

Unless I'm mistaken:

AC Nielsen - tomorrow
Galaxy - Monday
Newspoll - Tuesday

I think you've got the schedule spot on.

There's a Galaxy in Wentworth which apparently shows Turnbull behind. It wsill no doubt be in the Sunday Tele, but John Stanley from 2ue leaked it on Agenda yesterday afternoon.

HJ, I still see this election campaign from both sides as pretty disappointing, but with all due respect especially the coaltition. Their messages have really been all over the place, and I would have thought they'd have responded in a more coherent way to the rates thing.

Rudd, playing the small target, hasn't been by any means inspirational imo, but he's been pretty consistently "on message". This is where I see the real problem for the coalition.

They went with "Go for Growth" in the knowledge the RBA would be looking at rates during the campaign. Plainly they thought rates would not rise. Even before the rates rise, with a background of go for growth, there were warnings about an economic tsunami coming. Then the rates rise hits, and we're sorry but it's not our fault. We promised to keep them low but we can't control when they go up.

Now that is very likely true, but the issue isn't whether it's their fault, but the fact they promised something which they couldn't deliver on, and it seems a bit rich if they're good economic managers that htey didn't know they couldn't deliver on it.

The piece de resistance now is that the coalition is saying that to keep inflation and therefore rates low, you have to stick with work choices. Now work choices doesn't affect me one iota, and nor do the rates rises really, coz I'm fortunate to be on a great wicket, it's 35 degrees, the bowlers are tired and I'm well set.

But, and it's a huge but - work choices is electoral poison. Never mind if it's good policy or not, people hate it. IMO it's the central reason the coalition is behind and not about 6 points up - it's that bad.

On work choices, we've heard from the govt all year that real wages are up because of it. Now they won't release the figures on it and they're saying it will help keep wages down.

In other words, they now have to move the debate to an area which for them is deeply unpopular, with the message "We'll make you better off on rates, by making you worse of in terms of your real wages".

I'm not saying it'll work or it won't. What I'm saying is that it's a really tough sell. I'd be prepared to bet my heavily-mortgaged house ont eh fact that at the end of last year/ beginning of this year John Howard would not have thought that he'd be hanging his hat on work choices to try and sell his interest rate credentials to the electorate.

This stems from the non-hand over to Costello, who may have had 18 months to concerntrate on social policy and to become better known in a well-rounded sense by the voters. He would have been something of a fresh face, but it's too late now. Bare in mind Keating wasn't well liked bt got Labor over the line in 1993 when he reinvigorated the government after Fightback.

On the rates hope fore the libs, this graphic tells an interesting tale:

http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/

Check out the graphs under the heading "You tell me which is more likely".

[Craig]

Interesting enough I saw a quote on the front page of the Finacial Review when I was at the newsagent today and it had an article in which Mark Latham said if Labor get into office they would be more conversertive and timid.

TBH I find this election quite dire with everybody having pot shots at each other, I'm interested in how Labor will pay for all these promises, and increase in taxes then and if so we'll see how well it would go down. Yet I go and look on the Liberal site and with their attack on the unions and their ten reasons not to vote for Rudd, I felt it was accusations and not a lot of fact or explaination behind it. I think in my opinoion shows that Howard has no control over the Reserve Banks otherwise why would you rise interest rates if that was the case? Also how would Labor reduce interest rates or ease the burden on families if to borrow an ALP phrase, I have a feeling Wayne Swan can be biting off more then he can chew.

[Bracken]

I think the general landscape before this election is the cause for the overwhelming negativity of the campaign. With Labor going out of their way to make themselves as small of a target as they can (which is not exactly inspiring as an elector, but is politically prudent) and the government is fighting for their political lives. Neither situation lends itself to a positive, visionary campaign.

Latham's a hoot, though. Nothing funnier than a bitter washout.

[NZTailender]

[andyc]

[Son Of Coco]

Originally Posted by Craig

Interesting enough I saw a quote on the front page of the Finacial Review when I was at the newsagent today and it had an article in which Mark Latham said if Labor get into office they would be more conversertive and timid.

TBH I find this election quite dire with everybody having pot shots at each other, I'm interested in how Labor will pay for all these promises, and increase in taxes then and if so we'll see how well it would go down. Yet I go and look on the Liberal site and with their attack on the unions and their ten reasons not to vote for Rudd, I felt it was accusations and not a lot of fact or explaination behind it. I think in my opinoion shows that Howard has no control over the Reserve Banks otherwise why would you rise interest rates if that was the case? Also how would Labor reduce interest rates or ease the burden on families if to borrow an ALP phrase, I have a feeling Wayne Swan can be biting off more then he can chew.

Neither party has the control over interest rates John Howard led us to believe back when he promised to keep them low. Constantly handing out tax cuts does put pressure on the economy though...something a mate of mine who understands finance and the economy far better than I pointed out just recently. How much better off are we really when constant interest rate hikes swallow the tax handouts and then some? Obviously, Howard hasn't got as much control over the interest rates as he wanted us to believe...just like he doesn't have as much control over the state of the economy as he'd like us to believe.

[Josh]

Yep...

[Craig]

Originally Posted by Josh

Yep...

[FaaipDeOiad]

I wear ties that are coloured yellow...

[Son Of Coco]

Originally Posted by Craig

Peter's getting some tax relief of his own it seems.