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#571 (permalink) | |
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Quote:
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#572 (permalink) |
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International Regular
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LOL, you're right.
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#573 (permalink) |
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International Captain
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Average Points
20 160 40 80 10 320 Suppose, averages are in column A and Points are in column B, then in cell B2 write this: =3200/A2 Copy B2 and paste in B3, B4 etc...
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#574 (permalink) |
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International Captain
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Hulululu has 3/4th chance of dying and 1/4th chance of breaking into 2 Hulululus. If broken into 2, each of these 2 Hulululus have the same chances - 3/4th chance of dying and 1/4th chance of breaking into 2 further Hulululus....and so on.
What's the probability that the Hulululu species will never be extinct? |
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#575 (permalink) | |
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The Wheel is Forever
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: USA
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I'm massively sleep deprived but: 0. Monkeys, Shakespeare, etc.
Right?
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-My beliefs summarized in words much more eloquent than I could come up with How the Universe came from nothing |
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#576 (permalink) | ||||
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Global Moderator
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Yeah the sum you'd set up would converge to 1, wouldn't it?
**** I hate probability. Prefer something nice and clean like finding two irrationals a and b such that a^b is rational.
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+ and the buzz surrounds it does + * * * in which cribb demonstrates the power of the jinx Quote:
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#577 (permalink) | |
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International Captain
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Yes. There's a much easier approach than setting up the sum and breaking into geometric progressions etc though.. |
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#578 (permalink) |
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My immediate reaction was to keep it simple and go with tree diagrams, but the splitting in two part threw me off.
Immediately I thought it was (1/4)^n with n becoming very large, but obviously that doesn't work. Secondarily I thought in terms of series; the probability being quartered each step as there are two, but I doubt that holds up mathematically. That would have been 1/4 * 1/16 * 1/64 ... So whatever the formula is [I got P(n)=1/(4^n), but I may be very wrong], as n becomes very large you approach zero, so it is almost certain they will become extinct at some point. Last edited by Dan; 27-12-2012 at 06:34 AM. |
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#579 (permalink) |
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International Captain
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Repeating patterns, mate.
OK. Assume 'if we start with a bacteria, the probability of the species finally going extinct is p'. Then, p = 3/4 + 1/4*p*p => (p-2)^2 = 1 => p = 1 [Rejecting the other solution as that can't be a probability number] So, the probability of of the Hulululu species never going extinct = 1-p = 0 Last edited by weldone; 27-12-2012 at 07:00 AM. |
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#580 (permalink) |
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International Captain
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In fact, for any x where 0<x<1, if you replace 3/4 by x and 1/4 by (1-x) in the original problem, then also p will come out as 1 from the equation I think. I'm also sleep-deprived, so not putting an effort to solve that generic one lol.
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#582 (permalink) |
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Cricket Web Staff Member / Global Moderator
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Alternatively you can look at the expected population at every year.
E(0) = 1 E(1) = 0.5 E(2) = 0.25 E(3) = 0.125 Et voila...
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#585 (permalink) |
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Global Moderator
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Two line proof. Very, very sneaky proof too. The specific problem, I should say, is proving that there exists two irrationals a, b such that a^b is rational.
Last edited by Spark; 27-12-2012 at 09:09 PM. |
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