@SS and Spark
Would you recommend those Feynman books to a novice like me? Are they difficult to understand?
They're probably the clearest books on their topics you'll find. He was a peerless communicator.
+ time's fickle card game ~ with you and i +
get ready for a broken ****in' arm
Last edited by silentstriker; 16-05-2012 at 08:02 PM.
"I want to raise my hand and say one thing. Those who complain about my love for the game or commitment to the game are clueless. These are the only 2 areas where I give myself 100 out of 100."
- Sachin Tendulkar, as told in an interview published in Bengali newspaper Anandabazar Patrika after his 100th International century (translated by weldone)
That article has a certain strawmannish quality about it.
Yea, well in a real life scenario, it would indeed be logical to question whether the coin flip is indeed fair - we do that all the time in reality (and in science) if we get results that seem odd. But that doesn't change the odds of the situation given in the premise (e.g fair coin).A third party asks them, "assume a fair coin is flipped 99 times, and each time it comes up heads. What are the odds that the 100th flip would also come up heads?"
Dr John says that the odds are not affected by the previous outcomes so the odds must still be 50:50.
Fat Tony says that the odds of the coin coming up heads 99 times in a row are so low (less than 1 in 6.33 × 1029) that the initial assumption that the coin had a 50:50 chance of coming up heads is most likely incorrect.
That's not a fallacy - that's just a bad statistical model which ignores a lot of variables.A man considers going to a job interview. He recently studied statistics and utility theory in college and performed well in the exams. Considering whether to take the interview, he tries to calculate the probability he will get the job versus the cost of the time spent.
This young job seeker forgets that real life has more variables than the small set he has chosen to estimate. Even with a low probability of success, a really good job may be worth the effort of going to the interview. Will he enjoy the process of the interview? Will his interview technique improve regardless of whether he gets the job or not? Even the statistics of the job business are non-linear. What other jobs could come the man's way by meeting the interviewer? Might there be a possibility of a very high pay-off in this company that he has not thought of?
Last edited by silentstriker; 28-05-2012 at 11:18 PM.
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