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Thread: 2017 NZ General Election

  1. #196
    Not Terrible Athlai's Avatar
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    Yeah it's pretty crap. I remember it being better last election.
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  2. #197
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    Yeah, I came out with National first, TOP second and Act third... weird poll.
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  3. #198
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    It does show how close everyone is in terms of policy pretty well. Only ACT really seem to have a few really divisive ones and even then, not all that many.

  4. #199
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    87.2% Labour
    86.5% The Greens
    84.1% United Future
    83.4% Māori Party
    82.3% National
    80.1% The Opportunities Party
    79.6% New Zealand First
    50.5% ACT


  5. #200
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    I disagree with almost everything he stands for, but David Seymour does a fairly good job for ACT.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/...eymour_taking/

    TBF I think most NZ politicians aren't half bad and would be happy to have a yarn with most of them over a pint. Reckon kiwis don't appreciate how reasonable we really have it on that front.

    That said I'd run in the other direction from Paula Bennett, Judith Collins and take a leisurely stroll away from Gerry Brownlee.

  6. #201
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    I actually really like a number of Act's policies, particularly on transport and immigration,. Of course I think their ideas are rubbish in other places (particularly their education policies).

    Nick Smith is the worst guy to be around in the current Cabinet. He made a habit for a while of walking down Mulgrave street from the Thorndon pools all the way into the beehive while still just wearing his togs and a towel. That guy obviously never saw that ad about the distinction between undies and togs.
    Last edited by Bahnz; 16-08-2017 at 03:24 PM.
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  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    take a leisurely stroll away from Gerry Brownlee.
    I enjoyed this.
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  8. #203
    International Coach Bahnz's Avatar
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    The latest poll is certainly interesting. If the Greens don't make it back in, there'll be a significant underhang in Parliament, and Labour could be able to form a government with just NZF and any surviving Maori Party MP's...I still tend to think that a) the Greens will rally and get back in; and b) that Winston will go with whichever party gets the biggest slice of the vote (unless it's really close). Still, quite a bit is riding on the upcoming tv debates.

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bahnz View Post
    The latest poll is certainly interesting. If the Greens don't make it back in, there'll be a significant underhang in Parliament, and Labour could be able to form a government with just NZF and any surviving Maori Party MP's...I still tend to think that a) the Greens will rally and get back in; and b) that Winston will go with whichever party gets the biggest slice of the vote (unless it's really close). Still, quite a bit is riding on the upcoming tv debates.
    What do you mean by underhang?

    I think if that happens it will just mean wasted Green votes - they don't get re-routed to anyone else, and it'll be good for National.
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  10. #205
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    Wouldn't be an underhang, just wasted votes, similar to the conservative party votes last election

  11. #206
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    I meant that if 7 or 8% of the vote gets junked (e.g. Greens 4.5, TOP 2.5) then the 47% that Labour and NZF currently share would put them pretty close to 50% of the remainder.

  12. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bahnz View Post
    I meant that if 7 or 8% of the vote gets junked (e.g. Greens 4.5, TOP 2.5) then the 47% that Labour and NZF currently share would put them pretty close to 50% of the remainder.
    Bahnzy the share for everyone else also grows in equal proportion. i.e. National and Act share grows.

    Greens almost certain to align with Labour so it's definitely a loss for Labour. TOP somewhat of a wildcard in terms of which of the major parties they align with. I think TOP actually may meet the 5% threshold.

  13. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by hendrix View Post
    Bahnzy the share for everyone else also grows in equal proportion. i.e. National and Act share grows.

    Greens almost certain to align with Labour so it's definitely a loss for Labour. TOP somewhat of a wildcard in terms of which of the major parties they align with. I think TOP actually may meet the 5% threshold.
    It does, but for them it's meaningless. National's share isn't going to grow enough to make up 50% of the remaining vote, they'll still need Winston to get across the line (though I've heard that if Peter Dunne sneaks back in that would be enough to tip the Government into the safe zone). The difference is that Labour's share would grow in a way that pushes them from needing a 3-party coalition to theoretically being able to get there with just NZF - and that would be waaaaaaay more attractive to Winston (even though as I said, I still think he'll go with the party that wins the most votes).

    I don't think TOP will get there - even with the Greens at their nadir at the moment they're still only polling at around 2. It's just so hard for a new party to get off the ground without an established MP (preferably with a safe constituent seat) to create the necessary public interest. And Gareth Morgan is such a bad politician (regardless of his policy credentials) I think he'll do pretty badly in the debates.

  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bahnz View Post
    It does, but for them it's meaningless. National's share isn't going to grow enough to make up 50% of the remaining vote, they'll still need Winston to get across the line (though I've heard that if Peter Dunne sneaks back in that would be enough to tip the Government into the safe zone). The difference is that Labour's share would grow in a way that pushes them from needing a 3-party coalition to theoretically being able to get there with just NZF - and that would be waaaaaaay more attractive to Winston (even though as I said, I still think he'll go with the party that wins the most votes).

    I don't think TOP will get there - even with the Greens at their nadir at the moment they're still only polling at around 2. It's just so hard for a new party to get off the ground without an established MP (preferably with a safe constituent seat) to create the necessary public interest. And Gareth Morgan is such a bad politician (regardless of his policy credentials) I think he'll do pretty badly in the debates.
    Agree GM is a terrible politician. But they have been advertising pretty heavily and some of their advertising campaigns have been pretty well focused - particularly towards students, although it remains to be seen whether said students will actually vote, as they never seem to.

    You don't think that National + Act (+/- Peter Dunne) can make it across 50%? interesting.

  15. #210
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    Yea I think TOP's voter base are probably not the sort that would get polled because they don't have landlines but at the same time, it's also the sort of voter base who doesn't vote

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