The American Politics thread

[Prince EWS]

Ah you replied before I got around to deleting because I cbf with what I thought that conversation would end up as, but I don't actually really disagree with that much at all.

[Uppercut]

Stock market drop is usually a half decent predictor of a recession tbf. Though I think that might actually be because the media is so obsessed with it, so it has an outsized impact on consumer behaviour.

[weldone]

Stock market drop is usually a half decent predictor of a recession tbf. Though I think that might actually be because the media is so obsessed with it, so it has an outsized impact on consumer behaviour.

Yes, it's a lag indicator, not a lead indicator. Stock market drop happens after the recession starts, not the other way round.

[Uppercut]

Yes, it's a lag indicator, not a lead indicator. Stock market drop happens after the recession starts, not the other way round.

I thought it was both. Going by Christina Romer's stuff though that is nearly 30 years old now.

My media obsession story is based mostly on 1929. Maybe it's not true generally.

Anyway, in practical terms we get the stock market data first, so it's at least a decent indicator if not a predictor.

[Groundking]

The stock market has been declining for a few weeks. The tech stocks have been going down steadily.

The stock market has gone sideways (with a few huge swings up and down in that time) for 18 months now....

[Niall]

My guilty pleasure when it comes to Trump disciples has a theory which if true will be a game changer for 2020.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/stat...68342784692226

[RossTaylorsBox]

Mitchell's grift is really good, he claimed he needed money to move to DC, then just went to Miami instead.

[Spark]

https://www.gefraud.com/?mod=article_inline

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49352765

Mr Markopolos's analysis of GE's financial position, called General Electric: A Bigger Fraud Than Enron, claims: "The $38bn in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE's market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds."

The report highlights the conglomerate's exposure to long-term care insurance in the US and its oil industry services business.

Mr Markopolos's referencing of two of corporate America's most notorious frauds in the report was seen as potentially serious, as both led to criminal prosecutions.

GE is the blue-chippiest of traditional industrial blue-chip stocks. To the extent that America's 20th century economic powerhouse was built on anything, it was built on companies like GE.

40% market cap being fraudulent, and people wonder why young people are losing faith in capitalism. Also, if people are wondering how a recession starts, it starts with a company like GE turning around and going "hey haha actually our business is built on financial quicksand please give us money or we'll fold and die" and everyone runs for the hills.

[Daemon]

I don't understand how they got away with paying a $50m settlement after a 4 year long fraud investigation by the SEC, without confirming nor denying fraud charges.

The issues with their reporting and non compliance with GAAP has been known for ages, but some of this other stuff he alleges is just insane and requires a literal conspiracy between auditors, management and the board. Absolutely huge if even half true.

[RossTaylorsBox]

Almost like corporate America is one giant fraud.

[RossTaylorsBox]

This Greenland thing is purestrain Trump I love it

[Teja.]

Kamala crashes from 17% to 5% in the latest CNN poll.

[weldone]

Kamala crashes from 17% to 5% in the latest CNN poll.

Amazing. Hope Biden and Warren are next so the real men and women can fight it out.

[Teja.]

Those pesky Russian bots eh

[Teja.]

Anyway the poll probably has older voter bias etc. but:

Biden 29 (from 22)
Bernie 15 (from 14)
Warren 14 (from 15)
Kamala 5 (from 17 )
Buttgeig 5 (from 4)
Beto, Booker, Castro and Tulsi at 2+
Yang and misc at 1.