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Thread: The American Politics thread

  1. #24586
    International Coach Anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    But right now he looks like he could feasibly lose Texas which would pretty much as bad a GOP result you could get.
    this would be just about as impossible as trump winning california...

  2. #24587
    Not Terrible Athlai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anil View Post
    this would be just about as impossible as trump winning california...
    There was a 30 point margin in California between Trump and Clinton and a 9 point margin in Texas.It isn't remotely the same. People forget that the growing metro areas in Texas are surprisingly blue leaning. It'll likely happen in our lifetime and the Dems will probably actively try to contest it in this election (though obviously unlikely).

    Romeny '12 was 16 points
    McCain '08 12 points
    Bush '04 23 points
    Bush '00 22 points
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    Once again it's important not to overestimate just how much people are paying to politics/know about politics outside the Terminally Online. A big chunk of Biden's lead is likely name recognition, you'd think that would ebb away over time.

    I actually think Warren seems well-placed right now. Certainly has a lot of momentum.
    I agree that Biden's current standing in the polls is largely because of his name recognition as a former Vice-President and his links with Obama. In fact Colbert highlighted how much Biden is talking about Obama at the moment and it is a lot.

    However he is a reasonably strong candidate and may win the nomination but even if he does I expect it still to be a tough fight against somebody. The consistent 5 highest in the polls currently are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris which the rest generally getting between 0-3% in most polls. I agree Warren does seem well placed but maybe someone will emerge from the lower pack to be a challenger.

    The first debate is coming up, with it being split into two because of the amount of candidates, on the 26 and 27 of June.

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    Not Terrible Athlai's Avatar
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    Apparently Booker is surging a bit right now too. I expect after the debates the field will become a bit clearer though.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    Apparently Booker is surging a bit right now too. I expect after the debates the field will become a bit clearer though.
    That is not reflected in the polls I have looked at. He has only got 2% in the last 3 polls listed on realclearpolitics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    O'Rourke is perhaps the best of the rest as far as polling goes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Test_Fan_Only View Post
    That is not reflected in the polls I have looked at. He has only got 2% in the last 3 polls listed on realclearpolitics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    O'Rourke is perhaps the best of the rest as far as polling goes.
    Yeah the Booker thing wasn't polls but how much he's been on cable in the last week specifically etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    Yeah the Booker thing wasn't polls but how much he's been on cable in the last week specifically etc.
    Yes that might be reflected in the next few polls.

  8. #24593
    Cricketer Of The Year Ausage's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flem274* View Post
    the assumption that the university section holds equal power to true social elites is untrue, students don't hold anything except a beer, but i can see the thinking behind it when the most obnoxious elements of the 'woke' crowd get the media spotlight. 'i still think we have work to do on race relations and consent issues' unironically becomes 'all white men are racist rapists' online and in left wing media outlets.
    I agree with most of your post actually, I'd just point out that very few of those who complain student activism would consider the students anything but a symptom of a problem. They'd argue the academics & curriculum is the issue.

    I'm not sure that really hits the mark either though tbh.
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  9. #24594
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ausage View Post
    I agree with most of your post actually, I'd just point out that very few of those who complain student activism would consider the students anything but a symptom of a problem. They'd argue the academics & curriculum is the issue.

    I'm not sure that really hits the mark either though tbh.
    The contradiction - or at least the inconsistency - I always see with this is that such activism always seems to be concentrated in 1st year students who have been in uni for about five minutes. How can academia be directly responsible for their radicalisation when they've basically never had an actual discussion with an academic?

    Most of these student activists are absorbing these views online through two particular websites imo. Not through three dozen academics who form a sealed bubble from which nothing ever escapes. In general, as someone who has spent the last decade on university campuses, the populist right caricature of university campuses is laughably, facially nonsense. Makes it hard to take the rest of their complaint seriously too, as annoying as Socialist Alternative posters plastered on every wall may be.
    Last edited by Spark; 24-06-2019 at 08:50 PM.
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    I think the thought process of the extremely online democrats base and the centre left media seems to be that Biden is a Clinton-esque establishment candidate and it’s best to bring out all possible criticisms at this stage to weaken him so as to avoid a repeat of 2016.

    I understand the strategy but think it’s a fine line to walk because if you go too far in the attack, you risk turning him into a self righteous debate troll with nothing to lose, vendetta against the candidates dunking on him and a folder titled ‘hypocrisy’ by his side. He’s the most dangerous in that scenario for the people who want him to disappear.

  11. #24596
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teja. View Post
    I think the thought process of the extremely online democrats base and the centre left media seems to be that Biden is a Clinton-esque establishment candidate and it’s best to bring out all possible criticisms at this stage to weaken him so as to avoid a repeat of 2016.

    I understand the strategy but think it’s a fine line to walk because if you go too far in the attack, you risk turning him into a self righteous debate troll with nothing to lose, vendetta against the candidates dunking on him and a folder titled ‘hypocrisy’ by his side. He’s the most dangerous in that scenario for the people who want him to disappear.
    The political strategy of the Extremely Online doesn't really come out of a thought process. It's an organic function of what makes the rank and file angry. They'll always tend towards over-attacking.

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    Best thing that can happen to Trump's campaign is for the likes of a Sanders or Warren to pip Biden to win the Dem primary.

    Biden will soak up many of the votes Clinton lost to Trump in the tight swing states, but I don't think Sanders/Warren will.

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    Regardless of who the establishment candidate is or isn't, the lefties who stayed at home on election day need to not do that again. Bitching about their boi not getting the Democrat gig but then not voting at all? What kind of a response is that?
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  14. #24599
    International Coach Anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    There was a 30 point margin in California between Trump and Clinton and a 9 point margin in Texas.It isn't remotely the same. People forget that the growing metro areas in Texas are surprisingly blue leaning. It'll likely happen in our lifetime and the Dems will probably actively try to contest it in this election (though obviously unlikely).

    Romeny '12 was 16 points
    McCain '08 12 points
    Bush '04 23 points
    Bush '00 22 points
    the numbers don't always paint the full picture...if i remember correctly, there were polls fairly close to the election that showed hillary within the margin of error against trump and the pundits got all excited, she still was beaten by 9 points...i just don't see texas changing color any time in the foreseeable future...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anil View Post
    the numbers don't always paint the full picture...if i remember correctly, there were polls fairly close to the election that showed hillary within the margin of error against trump and the pundits got all excited, she still was beaten by 9 points...i just don't see texas changing color any time in the foreseeable future...
    yep, I remember Nate Silver rating Hillary a 1/3 chance of taking Texas based on the polls in 2016. Tend to think that when push comes to shove, Texas will look at the Supreme Court appointments and tax cuts and stay with Trump in 2020.
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