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Thread: The American Politics thread

  1. #24571
    International Captain Niall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Furball View Post
    Surely this Biden clown should be nowhere near the Democrat nomination?
    For majority of dem voters when it comes to picking someone for 2020 the ability to beat Trump in an election is key and Joe is the most likely to do that.

    He is formidable in the swing states that Trump needs to win and polling very well.

    Biden will know his base is not the most progressive or the most online but he will also know that those voters who are mainly older will come out in droves for him.

    I think Trump struggles against most of the dems in 2020 but Biden for me the safest bet to beat him.

  2. #24572
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Burgey's Avatar
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    I really haven’t been following the lead up to next year’s race that closely yet but I’d be pretty surprised if Trump doesn’t win.
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  3. #24573
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Uppercut's Avatar
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    65-35 Dems for me. All signs point to Trump being waaaay behind in the mid-West, especially if he's up against Biden.

  4. #24574
    International Coach StephenZA's Avatar
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    Nah. It is very difficult to get rid of a sitting president. He literally has a control that if he does or gets a chance to do one decent thing leading up to or during the elections will win it for him.
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  5. #24575
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Trump's approvals are pretty awful still but he has two things in his favour:

    1. Lack of a strong Democratic field. None of them seem to be running a great campaign as things stand. Is it worth noting that most of the big names jumped in for the Dems though, in contrast to the Republicans in 2012?
    2. Economy still good....typically the incumbent party loses when the economy is in bad shape or there's a significant unpopular war happening (or very close elections in which there's no actual incumbent)

    That said the situation is still in flux. It's hard to really make solid calls this far out. Who would've expected Reagan to win 49 states after the 82 midterms? Or Clinton to win by 10 points after the 94 midterms? etc etc
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  6. #24576
    123/5 Flem274*'s Avatar
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    what the internet thinks often isn't what the population thinks.

    i suspect he has a chance to come out of this 'don't bomb iran to smithereens' thing with a lot of credit. trump is basically the english batting line up - jammy and hacky af, long overdue a terminal implosion but often effective in a crude, anti-cricket way that's begrudgingly entertaining.
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  7. #24577
    Cricketer Of The Year Ausage's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Niall View Post
    For majority of dem voters when it comes to picking someone for 2020 the ability to beat Trump in an election is key and Joe is the most likely to do that.
    Really?

    There's so many gross sniffing videos. I know that the internet isn't rl and normies don't care etc etc. But really. There's a lot of gross sniffing videos.

    Trump isn't one to let the potential for memery slide either. It might be different if he was against a Cruz or Rubio type.
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  8. #24578
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    He's done a decent job from the POV of the interests of US citizens imo (though not necessarily from the POV of US citizens as consumers). Think his big shortfall has been in the education and student debt sector. Future Presidents will be grateful for all the flex on international trade that he will leave behind him for them to work with.
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  9. #24579
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Once again it's important not to overestimate just how much people are paying to politics/know about politics outside the Terminally Online. A big chunk of Biden's lead is likely name recognition, you'd think that would ebb away over time.

    I actually think Warren seems well-placed right now. Certainly has a lot of momentum.
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  10. #24580
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Uppercut's Avatar
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    Lots of Gambhiring going on here imo. If Trump benefits from a large incumbency effect, the economy remains strong, he gets a lot of credit for not bombing Iran, AND the D candidate is weak... it still might not be enough, because he’s got 10 points to make up in the mid-West with very relatively few voters suggesting that they’re undecided.

    All these factors need to be anchored to something. Even if you arbitrarily decide to be sceptical of all polls, special elections, and mid-terms, and take the 2016 result as an anchor, your prior will be that’s it’s 50-50.
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  11. #24581
    The Tiger King smalishah84's Avatar
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    having lived in the midwest, my experience was that there is a lot of support for Trump but a lot of people don't want to admit it openly. I would be surprised if Trump gets trounced heavily in 2020.
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    And smalishah's avatar is the most classy one by far Jan certainly echoes the sentiments of CW

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  12. #24582
    International Coach Anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    I really haven’t been following the lead up to next year’s race that closely yet but I’d be pretty surprised if Trump doesn’t win.
    this...

  13. #24583
    123/5 Flem274*'s Avatar
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    a lot of what im about to say has already been said in the 195674 previous attempts to describe his popularity but i think his support, or at least understanding, in nz basically boils down to 'he's a sleazy douchebag but he's better than those elites and 'universitiites' who look down on us and blame us for being the problem with the world.' i've only met one true believer and she and her son were genuinely unstable and not representative of the population.

    i could see his american supporters thinking similar, and many of these people aren't going to openly shout about it online.

    the assumption that the university section holds equal power to true social elites is untrue, students don't hold anything except a beer, but i can see the thinking behind it when the most obnoxious elements of the 'woke' crowd get the media spotlight. 'i still think we have work to do on race relations and consent issues' unironically becomes 'all white men are racist rapists' online and in left wing media outlets.

    of course the counter to that is the bilge, invasions of freedom and prejudice that gets presented under the cover of being right wing/conservative.

    sometimes i think the true political superpower of the world is the hyperlink and the recommendation algorithm.
    Last edited by Flem274*; 24-06-2019 at 04:33 PM.
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  14. #24584
    Not Terrible Athlai's Avatar
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    The only thing that matters is the swing states and he's currently polling miserably there. Of course it's way too far out to say he doesn't stand a chance or is going to win easily. He campaigned better than Hillary did last time and will no doubt spend 2020 targeting the swing states hard. But right now he looks like he could feasibly lose Texas which would pretty much as bad a GOP result you could get.
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  15. #24585
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Two things:

    There are things that are actually important to people (in terms of having a bigger weightage in their utility functions) but it is not considered appropriate to publicly discuss and reveal just how much more important it is to them than other, more "worthy", things.

    Some of these things are fragile and cannot be compensated for by things like increase in income or consumer choices. They require a complex ecosystem to sustain and those ecosystems contain some "bad" things from the pov of modern liberalism.

    Hopefully, this makes the kind of sense it does in my head.



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