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Thread: The American Politics thread

  1. #22651
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    GOP will hold the Senate. I expect Dems to win the House reasonably comfortably, but beyond subpoena power that won't mean much.

    State level is a different matter, there Dems should do very well.
    Dems with the House will meant Trump can't pass a lot of his domestic agenda (mind you given that he couldn't pass TrumpCare even before Jones joined the Senate....)

    What I predicted for the Senate:

    Safe D

    California (Likely Feinstein)
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    Hawaii
    Maine (I)
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota-A
    New Mexico
    New York
    Ohio
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    Vermont (I)
    Virginia
    Washington

    Likely D

    Minnesota-B
    New Jersey
    Wisconsin

    Lean D

    Florida
    West Virginia

    Toss-up

    Arizona - D
    Indiana - D
    Missouri - R
    Montana - D
    Nevada - D

    Lean R

    Tennessee
    Texas

    Likely R

    Mississippi-B
    North Dakota

    Safe R

    Mississippi-A
    Nebraska
    Utah
    Wyoming

    So the Senate is doable, but has very little margin for error.
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  2. #22652
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    What domestic legislative agenda? Aside from the tax cuts - which, incidentally, have been completely ignored by the GOP in their last-minute pitch in favour of "brown people are coming to kill you all", it's not like they've passed anything significant. The Senate is a different matter.

    Having said that, subpoena power is no small thing, given such an obviously corrupt administration.
    citoyens, vouliez-vous une révolution sans révolution?

    those nights were on fire
    we couldn't get higher
    we didn't know that we had it all
    but no one warns you before the fall

  3. #22653
    International Captain Niall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    What domestic legislative agenda? Aside from the tax cuts - which, incidentally, have been completely ignored by the GOP in their last-minute pitch in favour of "brown people are coming to kill you all", it's not like they've passed anything significant. The Senate is a different matter.

    Having said that, subpoena power is no small thing, given such an obviously corrupt administration.
    I don't expect Trump to be demanding open borders or anything, but he has really focused to much on the above narrative. Was he worried that those who were worried about immigration were going to abandon him?

    The Republicans were in a nice position after Kav and the attacks gave him a perfect chance to be sincere, but he blew that with all his bluster.

  4. #22654
    International Captain Niall's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/tarapalmeri/stat...15381692674048

    I've seen both sides claim her as a far left hero and Manchen II

    Obviously I have money on her to win tomorrow which I am beginning to regret, she probably wins, but good lord Dems choose your people better please in the future.

    Also the time is coming for the Republicans to cut all ties with Steve King, he seems to be getting more racist and hateful as the months pass.


  5. #22655
    Norwood's on Fire GIMH's Avatar
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    Rs to hold both IMO

  6. #22656
    Not Terrible Athlai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Niall View Post
    I don't expect Trump to be demanding open borders or anything, but he has really focused to much on the above narrative. Was he worried that those who were worried about immigration were going to abandon him?

    The Republicans were in a nice position after Kav and the attacks gave him a perfect chance to be sincere, but he blew that with all his bluster.
    I think it was more a cynical tactic to energise their base to ensure that they vote rather than any attempt to change minds.
    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    420 BLAZE IT
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  7. #22657
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Top_Cat's Avatar
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    StephenZA likes this.

  8. #22658
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Athlai View Post
    I think it was more a cynical tactic to energise their base to ensure that they vote rather than any attempt to change minds.
    It's also a sign that Stephen Miller is actually the principal driver of government policy these days. Zero doubt that more "establishment" types would have rather run on GDP figures instead.

  9. #22659
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Uppercut's Avatar
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    Yeah the polls strongly suggest a House/Senate split and I don't have any particular theories about what they might be missing.

  10. #22660
    International Coach StephenZA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uppercut View Post
    Yeah the polls strongly suggest a House/Senate split and I don't have any particular theories about what they might be missing.
    Trump factor.... no pundit seems truly willing to commit to anything.
    "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they’ve found it."

    "I have neither the time nor crayons to explain it to you...."

  11. #22661
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uppercut View Post
    Yeah the polls strongly suggest a House/Senate split and I don't have any particular theories about what they might be missing.
    Because only 35 Senate seats are up, whereas all House seats are up. Not even being a smartarse here, the Dems simply don't have enough room to make gains in the Senate given they hold 26 of the 35 seats up...

  12. #22662
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    i think uppercut wasn't disputing that

    anyway, only psephology nerds will care, but i am genuinely interested in this experiment by AP and fox: https://apnews.com/56e47aea1c3f4c939d0a52a97cb1f2a9 see if it's actually accurate for once

  13. #22663
    Request Your Custom Title Now! Uppercut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    i think uppercut wasn't disputing that

    anyway, only psephology nerds will care, but i am genuinely interested in this experiment by AP and fox: https://apnews.com/56e47aea1c3f4c939d0a52a97cb1f2a9 see if it's actually accurate for once
    Is there any reason why the accuracy of exit polls varies so much across countries? The French ones are ~100% accurate every time and the U.S. ones are a complete joke.

  14. #22664
    The Tiger King smalishah84's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uppercut View Post
    Is there any reason why the accuracy of exit polls varies so much across countries? The French ones are ~100% accurate every time and the U.S. ones are a complete joke.
    The US is very heterogenous probably. Is the size of europe itself.
    And smalishah's avatar is the most classy one by far Jan certainly echoes the sentiments of CW

    Yeah we don't crap in the first world; most of us would actually have no idea what that was emanating from Ajmal's backside. Why isn't it roses and rainbows like what happens here? PEWS's retort to Ganeshran on Daemon's picture depicting Ajmal's excreta

  15. #22665
    Norwood's on Fire GIMH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uppercut View Post
    Is there any reason why the accuracy of exit polls varies so much across countries? The French ones are ~100% accurate every time and the U.S. ones are a complete joke.
    I’m not sure but I reckon it’s probably Hillary’s fault



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