Arjun said:
This may be yet another mismatch, as was the case with the last Champions Trophy and the World Cup- the Aussies are always way ahead of NZ.
Obviously not experienced with Trans Tasman ODI's, then.
Not to mention work cricket! NZ being second in the world rankings has to say something, not to mention our feats against Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India, South Africa, England, Windies etc. lately... NZ do deserve the spot they're in. If NZ vs. Australia is a mismatch, then any other team against Australia is even more of a mismatch. If there is one country in the world who can beat Aussie, I believe it's New Zealand.
Usually I'm not so confident when NZ goes up against Aussie but after watching us rise to the occasion so many times, including ending the Australian's (at the time) record-length ODI winning streak to draw a 4 game series, coming out on top in the Champions, coming out on top of Aussie in the VB series, being the only country to have a 100% record over Aussie in 1992 (or was it 1996?)'s world cup (If I remember rightly, only NZ and Pakistan recorded wins over Aussie, however Pakistan lost the final to them). So if we do win, it wouldn't be a 'rare occasion' or 'completely unexpected' or an 'upset of the tournament' - it would merely be NZ rising to the occasion like they have done and know they can do again. The main reason is that Fleming knows how the Aussies play the game and he knows how to counter it - we just have to hope like hell that everything works on the day, because while Fleming can always keep his brain going, the bowlers and the batsmen need to pull through for New Zealand to really have any chance.
I really hope we win. I put it at 50/50. If I had to go one way or the other, I'd say NZ out of bias and hope, but being realistic I believe we have a 50/50 chance of victory.