*Official* Tennis Thread

[Jono]

Safin was up a set and 4-1 against Robredo. At that point Robredo was paying $9, so I put a fiver for the hell of it.

Robredo came back to win.

Marat, cheers for that. Can't believe he lost though.

[Simon]

Originally Posted by superkingdave

Wow, Juan Monaco at 3/1 to beat Murray...great odds, reckon Monaco will probably win in straight sets

Monaco was a "one hit wonder" in tennis terms. He was so gun on clay for about 6 months a few years ago when he won about four tournaments and beat some good players but has been very very average since.

[superkingdave]

Good job I didn't put any money on Monaco

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by superkingdave

Good job I didn't put any money on Monaco

You wot?

[Jono]

Originally Posted by superkingdave

Wow, Juan Monaco at 3/1 to beat Murray...great odds, reckon Monaco will probably win in straight sets

Originally Posted by superkingdave

Good job I didn't put any money on Monaco

I listened to you



Was worth a tenner, Monaco is unpredictable on clay (like Acasuso).

Monaco was up a break twice in the 3rd and let it slip, but managed to break again when it really counted

[SirBloody Idiot]

Through tennis betting, how much do you reckon you're up all told Jono?

[Jono]

Tennis is definitely where I've won most of my money (I try and follow every tennis tournament to be as knowledgeable as I can), though I had a really bad run at the 2008 US Open (Murray's win over Nadal took me by surprise... his whole run did actually). Lately I've won quite a bit on Murray vs. Roger matches, and I expect to win a bit with multis of Rafa to win consecutive clay tournaments (he's doing his part so far).

It'd be tough to calculate as I've been betting on tennis since 2006, but Bet365 doesn't let you calculate your winnings (or what are more quite often, losses) going back 6 months.

As a guestimate, I'd say I'd be about $900-$1100 up on tennis over the last year. But that's not what I'm up overall obviously, as I enjoy losing money on the NBA because I'm a fool.

[Jono]

Davydenko, Ferrer, Tsonga and Murray already out of the Rome Masters.

Verdasco only sneaks past Mardy Fish as well. If he went, the casualty rate would be huge.

Nadal just got broken in his first game against Andreas Seppi.

Time to load up on Rafa to win the first set.

[superkingdave]

lol, when i posted that i was just about to leave work and Murray had cruised the first set...would have got decent odds on monaco at that point

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by Jono

Tennis is definitely where I've won most of my money (I try and follow every tennis tournament to be as knowledgeable as I can), though I had a really bad run at the 2008 US Open (Murray's win over Nadal took me by surprise... his whole run did actually). Lately I've won quite a bit on Murray vs. Roger matches, and I expect to win a bit with multis of Rafa to win consecutive clay tournaments (he's doing his part so far).

It'd be tough to calculate as I've been betting on tennis since 2006, but Bet365 doesn't let you calculate your winnings (or what are more quite often, losses) going back 6 months.

As a guestimate, I'd say I'd be about $900-$1100 up on tennis over the last year. But that's not what I'm up overall obviously, as I enjoy losing money on the NBA because I'm a fool.

Interesting. My one tennis bet this year won me £80 (Nadal for the Aussie Open at 4/1) but cricket's where i've made a good £200 since January (helped by my £30 on England in the West Indies being refunded). There's all kinds of little perks there, notably in the IPL at the moment with the Durban/Cape Town day-nighters where you can make a tidy profit backing whoever wins the toss as soon as it takes place.

I guess with match-ups in tennis you benefit from being much more interested than most people betting.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by Uppercut

I guess with match-ups in tennis you benefit from being much more interested than most people betting.

And at the end of the day, its 1 person vs. 1 person. All it takes it that one person to have a bad day (as opposed to 11, or 22 etc.) and the favourite goes down.

Plus whilst tennis rankings are incredibly accurate, once you're out of the top 20 (or even top 15), the difference between a rank #17 player and a rank #49 player isn't that much. Yet the odds will often be heavily in favour of the higher ranked player. All you have to do is have a look at their head-to-head, have a look at their recent form, their preferences on surfaces etc. Sometimes the underdog should actually be the favourite, and that's when you just have a crack.

Not always that simple though, and winning can turn to losses quite quickly of course

Originally Posted by Uppercut

My one tennis bet this year won me £80 (Nadal for the Aussie Open at 4/1)

Yeah that was a good bet. I couldn't resist Novak's odds, when logic said I should have bet on both.

I got on Rafa in the final though. His odds shot up just because he had played the longest match in Aust Open history the previous night. As if that would stop the man

[Simon]

Betting on clay court matches is a waste of time, its the most unpredictable surface to win money on. I'm a favourites punter in general and will steer away from anything that had odds over $1.50 in tennis unless I think they have gotten it really wrong.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by Simon

I'm a favourites punter in general and will steer away from anything that had odds over $1.50 in tennis unless I think they have gotten it really wrong.

Yeah I mainly bet on favourites too, but I like a good 1.72 plays 2.00. Sometimes that difference is simply because one player is ranked 12, and the other is 15 (or something similar to that).

Eg. Gonzalez was great value vs. Verdasco in Barcelona, and so I got on. He won in 3 sets.

Anyway, Del Potro up against Wawrinka atm. Were both paying 1.83, and I was split as to who to get on. Del Potro is currently 4-0 and dominating.

Wawrinka better get his act together soon.

[Samuel_Vimes]

Originally Posted by Jono

Anyway, Del Potro up against Wawrinka atm. Were both paying 1.83, and I was split as to who to get on. Del Potro is currently 4-0 and dominating.

Wawrinka better get his act together soon.

JMDP winning on clay? Wtf?

Good day for dummy spits, too. Both Söderling and Azarenka (in Stuttgart) were apparently prime tossers.

[Jono]

Novak Djokovic is officially going into his Rome semi-final match with Roger Federer as favourite. Never thought I'd see the day the bookies would finally jump off Roger (other than against Rafa of course).