*Official* NRL 2012 Season thread

[howardj]

yeah, the problem with that theory is check out the number of times (all bar two or three years) that one of 7 or 8 haven't won.

[Prince EWS]

Originally Posted by howardj

yeah, the problem with that theory is check out the number of times (all bar two or three years) that one of 7 or 8 haven't won.

They're going to win even more now though.

The reason seventh and eighth shouldn't be involved in the finals is not because they aren't good enough to win on their day or you could probably make an argument for including about twelve teams every season; it's because they don't deserve the chance to after only being slightly better than average throughout the year.

You have to draw the line somewhere and everyone is going to have a different idea as to what constitutes a good season but AFAIC finishing halfway down the latter is not good enough.

[howardj]

3 v 6

3 probably finishes about 8 competition points ahead in the home and away season, then they beat 6

what potentially happens the next week under mcintyre?

they're in the same freaking position!

[benchmark00]

In other news, the NRL have signed a deal to have their games telecast in colour, instead of black and white.

[vic_orthdox]

Was it still the case where if you finish top (or top few) and lose first round, you lose the home final advantage?

That's a crock.

At the time when it changed in the AFL, I preferred the McIntyre system, but now much rather the system we have now. It also suits the administrators from a planning point of view, you have a better idea where the games are going to be the week after, and at what time as there are less permutations.

EDIT: also think its a bit silly that one year, you can lose when finishing fifth and make it through to the next week of finals, and the next year the team that finishes fifth can go out because of other results.

[Spikey]

'Was it still the case where if you finish top (or top few) and lose first round, you lose the home final advantage?

That's a crock.'

Yep.

[Ausage]

Originally Posted by howardj

3 beats 6, and yet they are both thrust into exactly the same position the folllowing week - sudden death

They're not though. One team has a home game against a team that is by definition in poor form (lost the last game). 3 also had a very real chance at a week off simply for beating a team that finished 3 places below them at home.

If the better teams win (2 beating 3 and 6 beating 7) 3-6 have the exact same scenario in the new system as McIntyre. They're both in sudden death, with 3 at home and 6 away. Difference is in the new system 3 copped a beating and 6 has momentum after a victory.

Originally Posted by Spikey

'Was it still the case where if you finish top (or top few) and lose first round, you lose the home final advantage?

That's a crock.'

Yep.

If you played one of the two worst teams left in the competition, after being one of the best teams for an entire year, at home and still managed to lose you don't deserve your home ground advantage any more. You should be grateful you're still in the competition and try to focus on the problem your team has with choking.

Bennetts bleating over having to come up against a red hot Parra team in 09 ignored the fact that we were watching one of the most red hot streaks in RL history, a scenario that will occur 1 out of 100 times. It was a freak occurrence that had nothing to do with the validity of the system but people got up in arms about it. Didn't hear him whinging when the Dragons crushed a hapless Manly team and stroll into a Prelim in '10. I'm sure he would have preferred to play a team 4 places higher to get where he was.

The argument that the top two teams are hard done by in McIntyre is the only crock here.

[Ausage]

Originally Posted by benchmark00

In other news, the NRL have signed a deal to have their games telecast in colour, instead of black and white.

Originally Posted by Ausage

So sign up at Toyota NRL Dream Team 2012 - NRL.com and enter the league code 105471 and finally prove who is the greatest NRL coach on CW. Everyone is welcome (especially Benchy).

You know that deep down you want to.

[Ausage]

Originally Posted by Prince EWS

I think eight teams is at least two too many in a final series for a sixteen team comp, so I've always favoured the McIntyre system for that reason (well actually I favour a top five system - but if we must have a top eight..). If you're going to allow the farce that is seventh and eighth making the finals then you should at least make it exceptionally hard for them to progress; letting them build momentum slowly against lower ranked sides is terrible idea IMO.

Another very good point that often gets lost. In '09 Parra had to beat Dragons (1st), Titans (3rd), Bulldogs (2nd) to make the GF where they played Melbourne (4th) and frankly had nothing in the tank after taking out the top 3 teams (theoretically) in the comp (though I think they ended up playing the best team in the GF).

In the new system they would have had a far easier matchup in the first round, Manly (5th) before theoretically playing Titans (3rd), Bulldogs (2nd) then Dragons (1st). They difficulty is weighted in the later games meaning they would have even more momentum and more in the tank if they made it.

It's all theorycraft, and these discussions usually devolve as such, but I don't see how anyone could argue that the first scenario is easier on a team that has the talent to win from 8th but left their run as late as Parra did that year.

Edit: Actually in the second scenario they'd play 4th instead of 3rd I think.

[uvelocity]

Originally Posted by Ausage

I've been a supporter of McIntyre for a long time. Might as well have another go at explaining why.

Yeah I prefer McIntyre too. It's not perfect, but if you win you ain't got nothing to worry about.

All academic as the mighty tigers will make a mess of everyone regardless of system!

[Ausage]

Originally Posted by uvelocity

All academic as the mighty tigers will make a mess of everyone regardless of system!

You're as good a shout this year as anyone tbh. Your starting backrow is terrifying. Big questions are on the fullback (I hear good things about Tedesco though), consistency and whether or not Reddy and Tuquiri come back the same players. Injury to Benji will crush you obv but you could say that about many teams.

[Prince EWS]

Originally Posted by Ausage

You're as good a shout this year as anyone tbh. Your starting backrow is terrifying. Big questions are on the fullback (I hear good things about Tedesco though), consistency and whether or not Reddy and Tuquiri come back the same players. Injury to Benji will crush you obv but you could say that about many teams.

The consistency of the team should be greatly improved by:
- not having someone with even less balanced structural nous than Marshall (which I barely thought was possible until Lui was found) to partner him
- actually having a proper set of middle third forwards

On the subject of both my second point there and the back row you mentioned in your post, though - if Sheens plays Heighington up the middle and uses Adam Blair on the fringes I will dead set follow Penrith.

[Ausage]

Originally Posted by Prince EWS

The consistency of the team should be greatly improved by:
- not having someone with even less balanced structural nous than Marshall (which I barely thought was possible until Lui was found) to partner him

I thought you didn't rate Moltzen as an organiser though. Or is the plan that he goes to fb with a young bloke coming through in the 7?

The consistency issue has a bit to do with level of Benji's influence too. That's the downside of having a guy like that as your dominant player. He is a guy that can fail to fire on occassion and the team, particularly his halves partner, looks lost when that happens. I guess that's when you need a steady hand in the 7 eh.

Originally Posted by Prince EWS

On the subject of both my second point there and the back row you mentioned in your post, though - if Sheens plays Heighington up the middle and uses Adam Blair on the fringes I will dead set follow Penrith.

Your man Walsh signed for another couple of years earlier in the week. Really looking forward to watching him under Cleary. It looks like Flash has come back from his ACL the same player and I reckon Burns will be ousted by Austin (the kid looks absolutely gun) or Seijka at some point this year. We could be a bigger threat than most people are crediting.

[Prince EWS]

Originally Posted by Ausage

I thought you didn't rate Moltzen as an organiser though. Or is the plan that he goes to fb with a young bloke coming through in the 7?

The consistency issue has a bit to do with level of Benji's influence too. That's the downside of having a guy like that as your dominant player. He is a guy that can fail to fire on occassion and the team, particularly his halves partner, looks lost when that happens. I guess that's when you need a steady hand in the 7 eh.





Your man Walsh signed for another couple of years earlier in the week. Really looking forward to watching him under Cleary. It looks like Flash has come back from his ACL the same player and I reckon Burns will be ousted by Austin (the kid looks absolutely gun) or Seijka at some point this year. We could be a bigger threat than most people are crediting.

I don't really rate Moltzen particularly highly as an organiser, but he's certainly a better organiser than Lui who himself is an even worse organiser than Marshall. Lui is not a bad player but he is a specialist five-eighth IMO. Moltzen himself would be best used at five-eighth but he does an adequate enough job at halfback and fullback. I'd rather give Miller a crack personally but it's unlikely to happen; Moltzen will be an improvement.

[Burgey]

Hasn't Lui gone to the Cowboys?