A.F.L. Thread II

[Matt79]

You reckon Vic? I reckon Ablett's first 5-8 rounds were some of the most dominant football I've seen in a while.

Him winning last year definitely did have a factor, but I reckon his year is actually slightly being underrated. Should also be noted he's comfortably kicked more goals than ever as well.

Swan deserves favouritism, but still reckon Ablett could run him damn close.

Pretty phenomonenal year by Jr. 45 goals on top of what he achieved on the ball is amazing - most dedicated forwards don't kick that many.

 

[vic_orthdox]

Chapman was Geelong's best player throughout the first half of the season.

 

[Jono]

Yeah but Chapman is apparently a weak dog that beats up bogan girls

 

[Mr Casson]

I'm no Brownlow nerd so I'm pretty wary about taking on the guys who have done the form on a race that's already been run, but these are the ones that interest me:

Riewoldt $1.95 and Tuck $7.00 - that adds up to an implied 65% probablity whereas in reality I couldn't give Deledio more than a 15% chance and Newman/Martin, the only other contenders, make up very little of the market too. I think Riewoldt or Tuck should be closer to the 80% mark so might have a little play there.

Sylvia at $3.50 and Cassisi at $4.75 anybody? Kieren Jack at $9?

J Brown as low as $1.28 looks like poison odds considering how much of the season he missed, but he's guaranteed votes from the first 4 or 5 rounds and I just can't see any names that can beat him. Is he worth laying at the $1.55 mark? I doubt I could do it.

 

[vic_orthdox]

Yeah but Chapman is apparently a weak dog that beats up bogan girls

Facebook comments should be the basis of every criminal proceedings, TTYTT.

"Then (Chapman) tried getting in my Frieda face n I stood inberween n said look f---k off and don't start ya **** ... Then i pushed ... him away n he pushed back.. Thn it was on ..:/ eeeeek! He must feeel pretty touugh though hitting a girl.. I don't care os I didn't feel it cos I was drunk."

 

[Jono]

Best story ever. Could not stop laughing when I read her Facebook statuses

 

[Jono]

I'm no Brownlow nerd so I'm pretty wary about taking on the guys who have done the form on a race that's already been run, but these are the ones that interest me:

Riewoldt $1.95 and Tuck $7.00 - that adds up to an implied 65% probablity whereas in reality I couldn't give Deledio more than a 15% chance and Newman/Martin, the only other contenders, make up very little of the market too. I think Riewoldt or Tuck should be closer to the 80% mark so might have a little play there.

Sylvia at $3.50 and Cassisi at $4.75 anybody? Kieren Jack at $9?

J Brown as low as $1.28 looks like poison odds considering how much of the season he missed, but he's guaranteed votes from the first 4 or 5 rounds and I just can't see any names that can beat him. Is he worth laying at the $1.55 mark? I doubt I could do it.

Sylvia is good odds, but so is Green. Either way they are both value over Frawley, who has been favourite with the TAB for weeks now

Kieren Jack at $9 is okay, but he was way longer before. People realised he was value and he fell heaps. I still think that patch where Goodes was dominant will be too much for Jack to beat.

Jack Riewoldt is unproven as a vote getter so he may be a bit short. No idea what Tuck is like generally. He may be a bad poller.

I'd just avoid Brisbane all together. Same with Port.

 

[Mr Casson]

Harbrow goneski. If the death knell hadn't sounded for Geelong re: Ablett's decision, that ought to do it. The rumour mill hasn't missed a beat with the GC recruits.

 

[Jono]

Amazing how accurate they have been hey. Incredible.

 

[Burgey]

Best story ever. Could not stop laughing when I read her Facebook statuses

Well they called him "Mr September" last weekend.

 

[vic_orthdox]

RE: Geelong, think that the match committee have a lot to answer for with the selection of Blake over Hawkins. Have long been a critic of using Hawkins in the ruck, because he doesn't offer enough around the ground to compensate what we lose at stoppages. The claws are out for Hawkins now, but he's still a 21-22 year old key position player, who will be decent. He's not a ruckman and should never have been played as one.

Ling's copped a fair bit over the past week too, and it will be interesting to see what the role of the tagger becomes with the increase in interchange, because it can become too disruptive and make your own team too reactionary if you have one guy following another everywhere, especially to and from the bench all the time.

I can see the logic behind Mackie's dropping, and the maintenance of Lonergan, but losing Mackie hurt us coming out of the backline because he's the most penetrative kick in the back six, which becomes important against the Pies and the Saints to stretch their concentration of players.

 

[howardj]

Quietly tipping Browny tonight







...to fill in for Fev

 

[benchmark00]

Leading vote getter for each club:

Adelaide: Scott Thompson
Brisbane: Jonathan Brown
Carlton: Chris Judd
Collingwood: Dane Swan
Essendon: Jobe Watson
Fremantle: Michael Barlow
Geelong: Gary Ablett
Hawthorn: Luke Hodge
Melbourne: Brad Green
North Melbourne: Brent Harvey
Port Adelaide: Travis Boak
Richmond: Jack Riewoldt
St. Kilda: Brendon Goddard
Sydney: Adam Goodes
West Coast: Mark LeCras
Western Bulldogs: Brian Lake

 

[Matt79]

Reckon Barlow will beat Sandilands? I thought if anyone did want a smokey Sandilands wasn't a bad punt. Dont reckon the umpires would have had Barlow in there awareness enough early on. That said, I cant see it being anyone beyond Swan or Ablett.

 

[benchmark00]

Yeah, will be close between Sandi and Barlow.

Likewise Goodes and Jack.

 

[Craig]

Harbrow goneski. If the death knell hadn't sounded for Geelong re: Ablett's decision, that ought to do it. The rumour mill hasn't missed a beat with the GC recruits.

By the sounds of things they will do a big presentation next week on the Gold Coast as well.

 

[Mr Casson]

Reckon Barlow will beat Sandilands? I thought if anyone did want a smokey Sandilands wasn't a bad punt. Dont reckon the umpires would have had Barlow in there awareness enough early on. That said, I cant see it being anyone beyond Swan or Ablett.

I think that's an interesting point but I disagree. The Barlow hype was there from before Day One, because he had such a huge NAB Cup as well. I think that however he polls, it'll be pretty consistent.

 

[Mr Casson]

Those poor girls are going to be ex-communicated from the violin players' guild.

This is worse than when Brian Ferry sang at the Allan Border Medal.

 

[SirBloody Idiot]

Those poor girls are going to be ex-communicated from the violin players' guild.

This is worse than when Brian Ferry sang at the Allan Border Medal.

The AFL do a lot of things well, but musical entertainment isn't one of them.

 

[Matt79]

Whatchoo talkin bout, SBI??