Jono
Virat Kohli (c)
Appreciate your advice, great points.You won't end up as bad as you would backing the favourites, but I'm still not convinced you'll win. Stedders has observed a similar theory in the NRL before and the results really do vary - it's made to look infallible in a round like this where all the favourites start $1.30 or so and four of them lose, but as a general rule you need one or two upsets just to chop out. Basing a strategy on what you've seen in the round just gone by would be a massive knee-jerk reaction.
You need to remember that a comp like this doesn't penalise you for losing, so with the results as they stand, it doesn't tell you whether DCYE would actually be profiting with his strategy (though so far I'm sure he would be).
The other thing I would consider, if you're going to do it, is splitting the model in two - one going right through to RD22 (or including finals if you wish), and one finishing around RD12-14 (because this is when it becomes noticeably harder to beat the market).
Though tbf I'm not actually going knee-jerk because of this round, because I won money on favourites (Dogs and Swans) as well as underdogs (Roos and Blues). More DCYE's performance overall. Obviously very good point regarding the fact that you don't "lose" points for a wrong tip whereas you lose money in reality.
But I've followed something similar on the Betfair forums in the IPL (which is probably a better sport to do it in than the AFL) whereby he laid the favourite every match, and ended up comfortably on top.
I think Round 5 could be a very good round to have a go, but I may lay at $50 rather than $100 (so I only would have risked $11.50 on Cats vs. Geel). That way I'm unlikely to lose much if it all goes pear shaped.
Regarding stopping at round 12 compared to going all the way to round 22/finals, I would think you'd stop at around round 12, because after that the bookies are much better at realising the odds, and teams begin to tank as well.
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