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Weighted AFL tipping

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
You won't end up as bad as you would backing the favourites, but I'm still not convinced you'll win. Stedders has observed a similar theory in the NRL before and the results really do vary - it's made to look infallible in a round like this where all the favourites start $1.30 or so and four of them lose, but as a general rule you need one or two upsets just to chop out. Basing a strategy on what you've seen in the round just gone by would be a massive knee-jerk reaction.

You need to remember that a comp like this doesn't penalise you for losing, so with the results as they stand, it doesn't tell you whether DCYE would actually be profiting with his strategy (though so far I'm sure he would be).

The other thing I would consider, if you're going to do it, is splitting the model in two - one going right through to RD22 (or including finals if you wish), and one finishing around RD12-14 (because this is when it becomes noticeably harder to beat the market).
Appreciate your advice, great points.

Though tbf I'm not actually going knee-jerk because of this round, because I won money on favourites (Dogs and Swans) as well as underdogs (Roos and Blues). More DCYE's performance overall. Obviously very good point regarding the fact that you don't "lose" points for a wrong tip whereas you lose money in reality.

But I've followed something similar on the Betfair forums in the IPL (which is probably a better sport to do it in than the AFL) whereby he laid the favourite every match, and ended up comfortably on top.

I think Round 5 could be a very good round to have a go, but I may lay at $50 rather than $100 (so I only would have risked $11.50 on Cats vs. Geel). That way I'm unlikely to lose much if it all goes pear shaped.

Regarding stopping at round 12 compared to going all the way to round 22/finals, I would think you'd stop at around round 12, because after that the bookies are much better at realising the odds, and teams begin to tank as well.
 
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pasag

RTDAS
Clapo has a shocker. Vic wins by 0.07, picked all the upsets and the Freo game to get over dyce.

Round 5 Results
Vic_Orthdox 11.82
dontcloseyoureyes 11.75
Jono 9.61
Superkingdave 8.09
Mr Casson 7.82
James90 4.34
Sam Vimes 3.52
Matteh 3.27
Voltman 3.12
BoyBrumby 3.11
irfan 2.78
biased indian 2.4
simon 0.72
ripper868 0.72
Alternative 0.72
Clapo 0

Will post the leaderboard tomorrow.
 

pasag

RTDAS
Round 6

Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide
Sydney vs. Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
Essendon vs. Hawthorn
Geelong vs. Richmond
West Coast vs. Fremantle
Carlton vs. Collingwood

Odds will come tomorrow night.
 

Mr Casson

Cricketer Of The Year
Going early this week after comparing my odds to the market:

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Kangas v Melbourne
Adelaide v Port
Essendon v Hawthorn
Sydney v Brisbane
Geelong v Richmond
Carlton v Collingwood
West Coast v Fremantle

The Bulldogs are false favourites - all the statistics say St Kilda are still the best side in the comp. I wouldn't be that surprised if the Bulldogs style of play knocks the Saints off, but their field kicking has to be up to its normal standards or the tackling pressure will get to them.

Otherwise, a bit weary of tipping Port, but on the whole I think this round will be one for the favourites.
 

biased indian

International Coach
Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide
Sydney vs. Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
Essendon vs. Hawthorn
Geelong vs. Richmond
West Coast vs. Fremantle
Carlton vs. Collingwood
 

morgieb

Request Your Custom Title Now!
Saints
Kangaroos
Crows
Bombers
Swans
Tigers
Blues
Dockers

Bit odd taking the Tigers, but $14 is ridiculusly high priced for a game.
 

ripper868

International Coach
Round 6

Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide
Sydney vs. Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
Essendon vs. Hawthorn
Geelong vs. Richmond
West Coast vs. Fremantle
Carlton vs. Collingwood
 

Smudge

Hall of Fame Member
Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide
Sydney vs. Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
Essendon vs. Hawthorn
Geelong vs. Richmond
West Coast vs. Fremantle
Carlton vs. Collingwood
 

pasag

RTDAS
Final Round 6 Odds

Western Bulldogs 1.83 vs. St Kilda 2.18
Adelaide 2.72 vs. Port Adelaide 1.56
Sydney 1.59 vs. Brisbane Lions 2.58
North Melbourne 2.08 vs. Melbourne 1.88
Essendon 2.90 vs. Hawthorn 1.51
Geelong 1.04 vs. Richmond 22.00
West Coast 3.00 vs. Fremantle 1.48
Carlton 2.66 vs. Collingwood 1.59
 

superkingdave

Hall of Fame Member
Western Bulldogs 1.83 vs. St Kilda 2.18
Adelaide 2.72 vs. Port Adelaide 1.56
Sydney 1.59 vs. Brisbane Lions 2.58
North Melbourne 2.08 vs. Melbourne 1.88
Essendon 2.90 vs. Hawthorn 1.51
Geelong 1.04 vs. Richmond 22.00
West Coast 3.00 vs. Fremantle 1.48
Carlton 2.66 vs. Collingwood 1.59
 

Johnners

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Final Round 6 Odds

St Kilda 2.18
Port Adelaide 1.56
Brisbane Lions 2.58
North Melbourne 2.08
Hawthorn 1.51
Richmond 22.00
Fremantle 1.48
Carlton 2.66

Carn richmond, need to make up for last week
 

dontcloseyoureyes

BARNES OUT
Western Bulldogs 1.83 vs. St Kilda 2.18
Adelaide 2.72 vs. Port Adelaide 1.56
Sydney 1.59 vs. Brisbane Lions 2.58
North Melbourne 2.08 vs. Melbourne 1.88
Essendon 2.90 vs. Hawthorn 1.51
Geelong 1.04 vs. Richmond 22.00
West Coast 3.00 vs. Fremantle 1.48
Carlton 2.66 vs. Collingwood 1.59
 

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