Weighted AFL tipping

[Magrat Garlick]

Footscray vs Adelaide
Sydney vs West Coast
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
Collingwood vs Essendon
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Fremantle vs Richmond
Carlton vs Geelong

 

[superkingdave]

Dogs
Sydney
Melbourne
Port
Bombers
North
Richmond
Geelong

 

[James90]

Footscray
Sydney
Brisbane
St Kilda
Essendon
Hawthorn
Richmond
Carlton

 

[vic_orthdox]

Footscray vs Adelaide
Sydney vs West Coast
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
Collingwood vs Essendon
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Fremantle vs Richmond
Carlton vs Geelong

 

[alternative]

Footscray vs Adelaide
Sydney vs West Coast
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
Collingwood vs Essendon
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Fremantle vs Richmond
Carlton vs Geelong

 

[pasag]

Round 5

Western Bulldogs 1.15 vs. Adelaide 7.20
Sydney 1.19 vs. West Coast 5.90
Melbourne 3.55 vs. Brisbane Lions 1.37
Port Adelaide 3.80 vs. St Kilda 1.33
Collingwood 1.31 vs. Essendon 4.00
Fremantle 1.07 vs. Richmond 12.50
Hawthorn 1.39 vs. North Melbourne 3.40
Carlton 5.00 vs. Geelong 1.23

Offer still open to join.

 

[Jono]

Dogs
Swans
Lions
Port
Essendon
Freo
Kangaroos
Carlton

 

[Mr Casson]

Dogs
Swans
Lions
Port
Essendon
Freo
Kangaroos
Carlton

Et tu, Brute?

 

[Jono]

I love my Tigers, but we suck. Really do.

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

Western Bulldogs 1.15 vs. Adelaide 7.20
Sydney 1.19 vs. West Coast 5.90
Melbourne 3.55 vs. Brisbane Lions 1.37
Port Adelaide 3.80 vs. St Kilda 1.33
Collingwood 1.31 vs. Essendon 4.00
Fremantle 1.07 vs. Richmond 12.50
Hawthorn 1.39 vs. North Melbourne 3.40
Carlton 5.00 vs. Geelong 1.23

 

[Smudge]

Western Bulldogs 1.15 vs. Adelaide 7.20
Sydney 1.19 vs. West Coast 5.90
Melbourne 3.55 vs. Brisbane Lions 1.37
Port Adelaide 3.80 vs. St Kilda 1.33
Collingwood 1.31 vs. Essendon 4.00
Fremantle 1.07 vs. Richmond 12.50
Hawthorn 1.39 vs. North Melbourne 3.40
Carlton 5.00 vs. Geelong 1.23

 

[irfan]

Adelaide 7.20
West Coast 5.90
Brisbane Lions 1.37
St Kilda 1.33
Collingwood 1.31
Fremantle 1.07
North Melbourne 3.40
Geelong 1.23

 

[Johnners]

Round 5

Adelaide 7.20
West Coast 5.90
Brisbane Lions 1.37
St Kilda 1.33
Essendon 4.00
Richmond 12.50
Hawthorn 1.39
Geelong 1.23

 

[pasag]

Still need tips from Casson, Ausage, Morgieb, howardj and Redbacks. One hour to go till the match starts.

 

[superkingdave]

Our odds look even more tasty now Mitchell is out.

 

[Jono]

Indeed.

 

[Mr Casson]

Still need tips from Casson, Ausage, Morgieb, howardj and Redbacks. One hour to go till the match starts.

****. Oh well, only missed out on 0.15.

Sydney 1.19 vs. West Coast 5.90
Melbourne 3.55 vs. Brisbane Lions 1.37
Port Adelaide 3.80 vs. St Kilda 1.33
Collingwood 1.31 vs. Essendon 4.00
Fremantle 1.07 vs. Richmond 12.50
Hawthorn 1.39 vs. North Melbourne 3.40
Carlton 5.00 vs. Geelong 1.23

I must be stupider than I look.

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

Have a feeling I may be extending the lead after this weekend. What a time to be alive.

 

[Jono]

I'm tempted to lay every favourite in the AFL from round 1 next year for a stake of $100 (i.e. would have risked $23 today on Carlton to beat Geelong to win $100, $39 on Roos to beat Hawks yesterday to win $100 etc.) considering how well DCYE has gone picking the underdogs every week.

I think you could end up quite profitable.

 

[Mr Casson]

I'm tempted to lay every favourite in the AFL from round 1 next year for a stake of $100 (i.e. would have risked $23 today on Carlton to beat Geelong to win $100, $39 on Roos to beat Hawks yesterday to win $100 etc.) considering how well DCYE has gone picking the underdogs every week.

I think you could end up quite profitable.

You won't end up as bad as you would backing the favourites, but I'm still not convinced you'll win. Stedders has observed a similar theory in the NRL before and the results really do vary - it's made to look infallible in a round like this where all the favourites start $1.30 or so and four of them lose, but as a general rule you need one or two upsets just to chop out. Basing a strategy on what you've seen in the round just gone by would be a massive knee-jerk reaction.

You need to remember that a comp like this doesn't penalise you for losing, so with the results as they stand, it doesn't tell you whether DCYE would actually be profiting with his strategy (though so far I'm sure he would be).

The other thing I would consider, if you're going to do it, is splitting the model in two - one going right through to RD22 (or including finals if you wish), and one finishing around RD12-14 (because this is when it becomes noticeably harder to beat the market).