My view on NZ horses taking part in the Spring Carnival, might be worth having a look at some of them but of course bear in mind that I'm horribly biased:
Caulfield Cup - Can't see any NZ-based horses getting anywhere near this year, so I'll have to settle for Sphenophyta's NZ heritage. The only one we've actually got among the nominations is Sculptor. A decent horse at best, but that happens once in every 10-12 starts, and he'll probably find it a bit too short anyway.
Cox Plate -
Seachange is IMO easily the best horse in NZ at the moment. She didn't quite manage the 2000 of the Kelt but fought all the way and I believe she'll weigh in in the Cox Plate if they decide to try it. She may not win, but if she's in front at the turn into that short straight at the Valley she'll be hard to get past and could easily run a place. If they go for the Myer Classic with her on Derby day I'd very strongly suggest you put a couple of dollars on her.
Melbourne Cup - A race we traditionally do rather well in but have been embarrassingly poor in of late, as exemplified by the way in which we celebrated Xcellent's "mighty" third-placing last year. But this is the strongest group of NZers we've sent over, sadly made slightly weaker by the season-ending injury of Zarius (Zabeel ex Sadler's Home by Sadler's Wells...watch him next year). Leading them is Auckland Cup winner
Pentane, the only horse to beat Xcellent on NZ soil (admittedly in a trial, but easily), he is proven at the distance and has an impressive turn of foot. He won fresh-up over a mile before turning in a performance that could be compared to a pile of steaming fecal matter last start. Apparently he had a skin rash. If he's recovered and runs his best race I think he's the best chance we've had of taking out the Cup since a mare called Ethereal. It might just be bias and patriotism and all that, but I genuinely believe he's as good as any other stayers in the race and has a decent weight for the winner of Australasia's third-richest (soon to be second at $1m
) 3200m race.
Kerry O'Reilly is a dour stayer who surprisingly ran second in our premier WFA race last weekend...I'm still trying to figure that one out. I don't think he's up to it in terms of class...but I thought he'd be unsighted in the Kelt. I'll say here that he can't win though.
Zabeat ran second in the Auckland and Sydney Cups last season, and Olivier Doleuze is coming over from Hong Kong again to ride him in the Melbourne Cup. I don't think he can win, but there is absolutely no doubt about his ability at the distance.
Envoy...seventh last year, that's the best he can hope for this year.
My picks for the major races:
Caulfield Cup - Sphenophyta
Cox Plate - El Segundo (but go Seachange!)
VRC Derby - The One (but how bad was his run last time? Shocker)
Melbourne Cup - Pentane
Good run though, had to use up a lot early but fought on well. Really great win from Seachange, that was incredible. I didn't think she'd be up to it but...wow.
