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2004 Melbourne Cup

Blewy

Cricketer Of The Year
Well i thought it was about time i started my usual Melbourne Cup thread...

Still early but im liking the look of a couple of horses ATM...

She's Archie is impressing me, also Mummify..

Makybe Diva IMO is about to hit some very good form, and although not many horses go back to back, she can...

I have a feeling though that the Godolphin stables could be taking it home with them this year, im not sure why i just have a feeling...

Also a couple of other big races coming up...

Elvestrom to win the Cox Plate...

Mummify to win the Caufield...
 

Simon

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i backed Shes Archie in the turnbull last week, i wasnt happy, it will take some convincing to take her in the melbourne cup i feel....
 

Simon

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Blewy said:
Distance mate, It is very suited to the 3200m...
yeh i understand that, i like to see horses with form though, still some big races before the cup anyway to make some selections...
 

_Ed_

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For me:

Caulfield: Balmuse to surprise a few Aussies, Mummify maybe just too far in front for his huge finish though.
Cox: Starcraft if he sorts himself out, otherwise if Miss Potential starts and is in front at the final turn, I'm not sure they would get past her.
Melbourne Cup: Cut The Cake if he gets in, with huge odds and a tiny weight - stays all day and has a big finish as he showed beating some classy horses such as Russian Pearl in the NZ Derby. Much better than the rubbish perfomances he has been putting in lately.
 

Blewy

Cricketer Of The Year
Miss Potential... I backed her in the Epsom and was disgusted.... Yes she had troubles on the plane on the way over but the run was very very ordinary...

IMO Elvestrom will be the SMASH of the carnival, this horse is running better then anything in the whole country ATM...
 

thewizard1o1

International Debutant
Makybe Diva: She's still my pick for the cup, I really liked the runs of her and She's Archie in the Turnbull both here along way back and got home very well. As go to two miles watch out for these two.

Elvestrom: Is flying and will go close in just about anything he is entered in.

Starcraft: Was a HUGE run on the weekend imo, the track bias was terrible on the weekend and he made up good ground without being hit to much by the jock. If he can be a little closer to them in future watch out. (Btw, i'm taking no notice of his last run in NZ, the horse pulled his head off and from experiance there is no way he was ever going to get hom in that race). A big negative for him is his greenness, still runs around a hell of alot.

Media Puzzle & Vinnie Roe: Depending on the track condition these two have huge chances, If the track is nice and firm i expect MP to be right in the finish and challenge for his seacond cup. But i have also had a few dollars on VR just incase the track heavey, dead, slow etc. due to rain.

Caufield Cup: Elvestrom (just from Mummify).
Cox Plate: Starcraft ( from Elvestrom)
Melbourne Cup: Makybe Diva ( from Media Puzzle and She's Archie).

Anyone see Alinghi getting beaten tmrw?
 

thewizard1o1

International Debutant
haha, thats like when one of my little cousin won the footy tipping comp a few years back by tipping which mascot would win in a fight, all us experts were ****ed. lol.
 

Mister Wright

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
thewizard1o1 said:
haha, thats like when one of my little cousin won the footy tipping comp a few years back by tipping which mascot would win in a fight, all us experts were ****ed. lol.

I've given up on tracking the horses form and abilities, etc. I used to do it all year round, and put a big bet on the Melbourne Cup. But since I've been old enough to place my own bets, I have not had a winner. My Dad (who doesn't bet) used to take my bets down and each year I would pick the winner. Then I decided to get all technical and track form, see if it was wet or dry, a fast track or a slow track, performance over the distance etc - I don't think I've even got a placing in about 6 years. So this year I have made the decision to go with the mystery trifectas, go for the 200-1 outsider, go for the most impressive uniform, the name that catches my attention. I'm going to be one of those 'one day of the year' punters.
 

Blewy

Cricketer Of The Year
thewizard1o1 said:
Makybe Diva: She's still my pick for the cup, I really liked the runs of her and She's Archie in the Turnbull both here along way back and got home very well. As go to two miles watch out for these two.

Elvestrom: Is flying and will go close in just about anything he is entered in.

Starcraft: Was a HUGE run on the weekend imo, the track bias was terrible on the weekend and he made up good ground without being hit to much by the jock. If he can be a little closer to them in future watch out. (Btw, i'm taking no notice of his last run in NZ, the horse pulled his head off and from experiance there is no way he was ever going to get hom in that race). A big negative for him is his greenness, still runs around a hell of alot.

Media Puzzle & Vinnie Roe: Depending on the track condition these two have huge chances, If the track is nice and firm i expect MP to be right in the finish and challenge for his seacond cup. But i have also had a few dollars on VR just incase the track heavey, dead, slow etc. due to rain.

Caufield Cup: Elvestrom (just from Mummify).
Cox Plate: Starcraft ( from Elvestrom)
Melbourne Cup: Makybe Diva ( from Media Puzzle and She's Archie).

Anyone see Alinghi getting beaten tmrw?

Makybe Diva is definatley looking good, The extra weight shouldn't worry her and she will be in the finish for sure...

Agree 100% about Elvestrom, this horse IMO is the most improved in Australia this year....

Starcraft is no doubt a quality horse, but 1 thing i noticed in the run home last week was that he was hanging out alot, he cannot afford to do this in the Big races or he will get done all the time, no matter how good he runs on...

Media Puzzle and Vinnie Roe are undoubtedly great horses, but i have concerns over MP's fitness, he has hardly had a run since his Melbourne Cup win 2 years back, Vinnie Roe will always be a shot if the track has any water on it...
 

thewizard1o1

International Debutant
Blewy said:
Makybe Diva is definatley looking good, The extra weight shouldn't worry her and she will be in the finish for sure...

Agree 100% about Elvestrom, this horse IMO is the most improved in Australia this year....

Starcraft is no doubt a quality horse, but 1 thing i noticed in the run home last week was that he was hanging out alot, he cannot afford to do this in the Big races or he will get done all the time, no matter how good he runs on...

Media Puzzle and Vinnie Roe are undoubtedly great horses, but i have concerns over MP's fitness, he has hardly had a run since his Melbourne Cup win 2 years back, Vinnie Roe will always be a shot if the track has any water on it...
I only watched the race once but it was my opinion that the horse was hanging in (like he did in NZ) but infact Childs angled the horse towards the outside a little so he could rige him out as much as possible. From memory the horses head was pointed the the outside rail which would indicate that this is what was happening. May have been otherwise...thats just what i remembered of it.
 

Simon

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Blewy said:
Miss Potential... I backed her in the Epsom and was disgusted.... Yes she had troubles on the plane on the way over but the run was very very ordinary...

IMO Elvestrom will be the SMASH of the carnival, this horse is running better then anything in the whole country ATM...
Miss Potential i agree was unimpressive in the epsom, i backed Shameaka there, they ran about as bad as each other, ill give MP another chance though, im not gonna go out on a limb and make a pick yet...
 

Slats4ever

International Vice-Captain
that's my tip then..... bit early though. if the weather remains this hot all the horses will die.
 

Simon

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Slats4ever said:
that's my tip then..... bit early though. if the weather remains this hot all the horses will die.
haha, one of the funnier predictions ive heard!
 

thewizard1o1

International Debutant
Anyone see Alinghi's race today? :|

So much for track bias, on that run they can pickup the Oaks now as far as i'm concerned.
 

Blewy

Cricketer Of The Year
What a run by Alinghi, if i were Freedman i would be getting her into the Cox-Plate.. From memory she was going to get something like 45 kilos and if she got that it would be a walk in the park for her...
 

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