Bat first or chase

[ankitj]

Strangely there have been no first innings scores between 250 and 300.

Edit: there's been one. Australia vs. West Indies

 

[stephen]

Ahem

Games between minnows don't count

 

[Burgey]

I think a lot has to do with your fifth bowling option. From an Australian POV where ours is dross, I think it's better to bat first and post a total which amplifies the need to go really hard against Maxwell/ Stoinis/ other junk option. Tends to lead to more errors on the part of the chasing side, whereas if Australia bowls first, teams just bat normally and the fifth bowler goes at sevens and eights without a risk being taken, and suddenly we're chasing 320 plus. Chasing in WCs does weird things to otherwise really potent batting sides.

 

[Teja.]

I speculate another factor should be variance.

Batting by the nature of sudden death has a lot more variance than bowling. Chasing requires more of a planned strategy than batting first. So if you’re a batting team with a lot of high risk high reward scorers, I’d think that would be a factor towards batting first.

 

[trundler]

Apparently you just need one in your top 3 to get a 100 at a strike rate of at least 100. One guy has to do both icing and cake.

 

[h_hurricane]

Strangely there have been no first innings scores between 250 and 300.

Edit: there's been one. Australia vs. West Indies

Those are the totals which give the best contest between bat and ball. Hope more such totals happen in the remaining matches.

 

[BeeGee]

Unless it's a billiard table, bowl first, bitches

Batting second you know what you need to get and can pace your innings accordingly.

 

[Days of Grace]

If it’s a slow pitch with a bit of turn I would bat first.

 

[stephen]

Batting first definitely has proven to be superior this world cup.

 

[ankitj]

15 matches won by side batting first so far, 10 by side batting second.

Highest score successfully chased – 244, NZ against BD

 

[Borges]

Bangladesh chased 321, with consummate ease, against the West Indies.

 

[ankitj]

Oops sorry.

 

[Howe_zat]

There's still been hardly any targets set between 250 and 300. The two that were (288 by Australia and 291 by NZ, both against the West Indies) were both big recoveries from early wickets falling.

Suggests that no one is intending to play a typical 2000s innings. You either try to scrape 250 on a difficult surface or blast from ball one.

 

[ankitj]

Teams seem to be repeatedly leaving too much for the end overs this world cup. While that can work when batting first, when chasing it is not working. In a way chasing in this world cup has become old school i.e. very nervy and piss poor. They have collectively forgotten the audaciousness of going about chases without letting pressure get to them, something that evolved well over last 10 years.

 

[ankitj]

Top 5 chases won/tied in 2011 world cup:

338 England vs. India
329 Ireland vs. England
307 Ireland vs. Netherlands
300 South Africa vs. India
296 England vs. Netherlands

Top 5 chases won/tied in 2015 world cup:

322 Bangladesh vs. Scotland
312 Sri Lanka vs. England
307 Ireland vs. West Indies
299 New Zealand vs. South Africa
290 New Zealand vs. Bangaldesh

Top 5 chases won/tied in 2019 world cup:

322 Bangladesh vs. West Indies
248 New Zealand vs. Bangaldesh
245 New Zealand vs. South Africa
230 India vs. South Africa
213 England vs. West Indies

 

[ankitj]

Win/Loss ratio in world cups when chasing:

2011: 0.96
2015: 1.0
2019: 0.67

 

[Howe_zat]

Yeah, but wouldn't those stats be different if sides batting first were putting up more okayish 250-280 scores?

 

[BeeGee]

Highest score successfully chased – 244, NZ against BD

Fake news.

 

[ankitj]

Top 5 chases won/tied in 2019 world cup:

322 Bangladesh vs. West Indies
248 New Zealand vs. Bangaldesh
245 New Zealand vs. South Africa
230 India vs. South Africa
213 England vs. West Indies

Last 4 games won by teams batting first. These are still top 5 successful chases this world cup.

 

[trundler]

Today's score of 285 slots into that moderately difficult range of 250-300.