i don't think non-nz posters (and Athlai) understand just how bad southee has been in white ball cricket since the last world cup. I'm not even particularly confident henry will do much better against good sides but he's at least earned a chance to prove that unlike southee.
I don't really think Southee is that bad at the death; he's certainly much better than Henry. He's just not particularly good during any period whereas Henry is still at least occasionally good with the new ball. Ideally you'd find a way for Henry to just do what he does well rather than picking a player who's "kinda crap but not disastrous at any period", but it's not an ideal world and Henry ends up bowling at the death fairly regularly when he plays. I do think it's a genuine toss up and I'm fully aware how **** Southee has been. It's a toss up because he's been ****; he really should have been much better and made this not a discussion. I'd have actually backed Sodhi in as not played either of them but he's been dire lately.
Ferguson. He usually does. But they can't just bowl eight straight between them at the end so whoever the other bowler is usually ends up bowling in the last eight at some point as well. Southee is just meh in this period where Henry gets pumped (as opposed to up front, where Southee is meh and Henry sometimes takes wickets). Santner, de Grandhomme and Neesham don't really inspire confidence as alternate options for this period either.
Apart from this year where he's played just the 4 games, Southee hasn't averaged under 30 in a year of ODI cricket since 2011. This narrative that he's simply underperforming and we should expect more is just nonsensical at this point. Southee's a 34 career average bowler, and that genuinely reflects his skill level. He's not secretly some gun that'll come out with a slight attitude change.
Nah I totally agree with this, but if Southee was averaging 34 at less than 5.5rpo, and not leaking at the death, I think he'd be worth more to the side than Henry. The problem is that he's been even worse than just his meh his career output.
