Equally, look at the number of "hunches" who have failed thus far, even though those failures have not always been from fair chances: McGrath, Foster, Collingwood, Batty, Jones thus far, Dawson, Schofield, Adams, Maddy, Read, Hegg, the examples from 1998 onward, in Test-matches. In ODIs there are plenty more: Mahmood, Key, Troughton, McGrath, Clarke, Harmison, Batty, Blackwell, Tudor, Sidebottom, Snape, Kirtley, Foster, Shah, Vaughan, Solanki, Wells, Maddy.
The examples often quoted as successful hunches are Trescothick (lucky, I don't consider him a success), Vaughan (whose First-Class average has gone up and up from his Test-debut onwards) and Harmison (6 good matches doesn't yet prove anything, especially given the two most recent games). These are in Test-matches; in ODIs recently there have been two that, so far in their careers, have been successes despite average domestic records, Strauss and Johnson, neither who have played a compelling number of ODIs.
So really you can see why I prefer to judge an international selection on domestic success.