Australian test selection 2019-2020

[mr_mister]

I think there is some evidence for what social is saying when you fall in the super fast category.

Looking at the widely considered 3 fastest bowlers ever, Thommo, Binga and Shoaib we see super impressive strike rates(Shoaib 16th of all time, Thommo and Binga a bit further back but right up there in the McGrath/Lillee range, and better than than Gillespie, Lindwall, Mcdermott, Davidson from Australia alone). Yet their averages are nowhere near some of ATG quicks, except Shoaib kinda

I think at a certain pace runs get leaked easier, plenty of edges, miscues and jammy swings can fly away for 4. The classic 'now the bowler won't mind that' commentary no doubt followed.

 

[Starfighter]

I think people would fairly agree that Shoaib's and Thomson's averages reflect their total career performance fairly enough. It's been a well recognised thing for over a century that going flat out reduces your accuracy and control meaning you bowl more long hops and half volleys which may, depending on how good the batsman is at playing pace, reduce pressure, but you will also get wickets no other bowler will (hence high er, low sr). I doubt edges etc count for a fraction of the runs conceded through bad balls. Look at guys like Holding and Marshall compared to say, Patterson. All very fast bowlers at times but Patterson simply didn't have the rhythm and control of the other two.

Thommo was worse when he slowed down because he didn't have the control to make up for the reduced pace. You might have more 'unlucky' moments when bowling super fast but you'll also get wickets from hurried and confused shots and I'd reckon it balances out.

 

[social]

I don’t rate Lee that highly other than pace

He’s several levels above Siddle

 

[quincywagstaff]

English journos/fans respecting Siddle as a quality Ashes bowler reminds me a bit of how Oz media and fans used to respect Atherton by saying he was the key wicket for Australia to get.

Sure, you'd respect these players but would opposition fans (in Ashes contests at least) be worried they were playing? Doubt it.

 

[quincywagstaff]

I think there is some evidence for what social is saying when you fall in the super fast category.

Looking at the widely considered 3 fastest bowlers ever, Thommo, Binga and Shoaib we see super impressive strike rates(Shoaib 16th of all time, Thommo and Binga a bit further back but right up there in the McGrath/Lillee range, and better than than Gillespie, Lindwall, Mcdermott, Davidson from Australia alone). Yet their averages are nowhere near some of ATG quicks, except Shoaib kinda

I think at a certain pace runs get leaked easier, plenty of edges, miscues and jammy swings can fly away for 4. The classic 'now the bowler won't mind that' commentary no doubt followed.

Thomson was a bit of a different case as he was two different bowlers before and after the shoulder injury. If he hadn't injured his shoulder fair chance his Test average would have been sub-25.

 

[Flem274*]

No chance

Lee’ test average is inflated because his job was to blast people out with very little scoring protection as drying the runs up was left to others

Siddle is a good bowler but nothing more than a poor man’s dizzy

and siddles record isn't affected, for better or worse, by doing the job his team asks? long spells, keeping it tight etc

siddle has been better at the jobs asked of him than lee was at his, and lee got to bowl with better bowlers.

 

[quincywagstaff]

Re: Lee, I reckon when he struggled was when he was the first change bowler during the middle of his career behind McGrath & Gillespie.

He seemed to overcompensate by trying to be an enforcer (prob because of S Waugh captaincy as well) and lost his way for a few years. Kasprowicz proved a more effective first change bowler in the mid 00s

When Gillespie left the Test side and Lee became new ball bowler from 05/06 onwards it was no coincidence that he lifted considerably.

And the first season after McGraths retirement in 07/08 was probably his best summer of bowling ever. But injuries got the best of him after that.

 

[halba]

he batted poorly in the world cup and deserves to demoted. he is not in form.

fully agree. my XI is based on form, and that includes batting. Lyon is in better batting form than cummins. He can stick around.
thats the best XI at the moment. as Aussie selectors are desperate to win the ashes, they will go with something like above, 50/50 call siddle or neser. Neser handy with the bat. Hes a good chance for a test debut. Gun cricketer. Likely a rotation between those two.

Pattinson gets straight in. can bat and has the hostility and pace. Hazlewood/Starc combo past it and well out of form. Starc isnt even 5th preferred pacemen, maybe the worst of the lot. He bowled so poor in the intra squad game. Even bird, tremain guys who weren't selected are better red ball than Starc who was selected due to longer term performance than short term form.

good depth in batting. All the batters are in form and it looks a better batting lineup than england's at the moment(denly, rory burns lol?). Smith back to good form.

England bowlers in brilliant form. Woakes, Anderson, Archer will be extremely tough, as thats the best in the world at the moment with australia's.

 

[GoodAreasShane]

fully agree. my XI is based on form, and that includes batting. Lyon is in better batting form than cummins. He can stick around.

That is blatantly insane. Cummins may struggle to accelerate but he has a better defensive technique than a lot of specialist batsman in this country. As much as I have always been a Lyon fan there is no way he is even remotely close to Cummins on ability with the willow

 

[aussie tragic]

fully agree. my XI is based on form, and that includes batting. Lyon is in better batting form than cummins. He can stick around.

Lyon's batting in last five Tests: 9* 5, 0, 7, 0, 1 (4x DNB)

Cummins batting in last five Tests: 19, 1, 17, 63, 25, 0 (4x DNB)


Edit: I'm not even sure why I bothered to look that up. The only question with bowlers batting is will it be Pattinson or Cummins batting 8?

 

[Starfighter]

Re: Lee, I reckon when he struggled was when he was the first change bowler during the middle of his career behind McGrath & Gillespie.
He seemed to overcompensate by trying to be an enforcer (prob because of S Waugh captaincy as well) and lost his way for a few years. Kasprowicz proved a more effective first change bowler in the mid 00s
When Gillespie left the Test side and Lee became new ball bowler from 05/06 onwards it was no coincidence that he lifted considerably.
And the first season after McGraths retirement in 07/08 was probably his best summer of bowling ever. But injuries got the best of him after that.

You'd be surprised (32 1st position, 28.5 2nd, 28 1st change). Though he certainly did have his best period around when you mentioned.

 

[Starfighter]

I really, really hope Cummins at least bats better than he does in the limited overs stuff.

 

[morgieb]

and siddles record isn't affected, for better or worse, by doing the job his team asks? long spells, keeping it tight etc

siddle has been better at the jobs asked of him than lee was at his, and lee got to bowl with better bowlers.

This I do question, at least to some degree. It's true there were periods that he was the workhorse stock bowler behind two gun strike bowlers, but equally when he was actually a reliable threat in unfavourable conditions he was probably Australia's #1 quick (at least for a significant chunk of his career).

I think his form since the 13/14 Ashes is mostly down to him being plain innocous rather than him being used to hold up an end.

With that said I do think some Australian fans are too harsh on Siddle. But equally he shouldn't be in the four best bowlers to start the series. If a couple of bowlers get injured or bowl poorly he obviously comes in, but he's not in our Best XI, even in England.

 

[stephen]

Siddle was a good fast bowler back when he was a fast bowler, particularly when he pitched it up. Now he's entirely condition dependent, so much so that when Victoria had Pattinson, Hastings, Boland and Tremain were all available, Siddle would often be left out. Now that Hastings was forced into retirement he's seen a few more games, but Siddle was behind Tremain and Boland on the wickets tally and equal with both Pattinson and Holland last season.

He's not a terrible bowler by any means, but there's a few other bowlers who can rightly feel dudded at not being on tour in his place. Have to feel for Bird. His bowling style is well suited to English conditions and he's been banging the door down with his shield performances. Almost certainly won't get a test in England now.

 

[stephen]

Brett Lee was good when he bowled on a length. Unfortunately his MO was bouncer-yorker. For a man of his natural speed, accuracy and fitness he really should have been a better bowler. The problem was that his bouncer was too predictable and he really didn't have a plan B. Gun LO bowler though.

 

[GotSpin]

The blatant favouritism and short term selections is just pathetic

They should know that batting can be a bit of a lottery. Especially in a green trial match. Bancroft making one innings of 93 and labuschagne making 40 shouldn’t buy them a series when their overall record suggests that they’re just not very good. Siddle can’t even make the Victorian shield team and Marsh has proven himself to be a multi time test failure.

 

[stephen]

Yep and Patterson gets dropped based on a list A tour in which he didn't get dismissed, 3 first class innings in which he got 4, 32 and 38 and this stupid green top shootout.

He's 26, got two tests, scored a hundred in his most recent test and gets dropped for Marnus Labuschagne

 

[TheJediBrah]

I remember in the 2015 Ashes thinking "really they are taking Siddle again, surely he's done?"

4 years later and he's in the squad again

 

[Test_Fan_Only]

Picking Marsh ahead of Patterson and Neser ahead of Bird are huge errors. Bancroft ahead of Burns is problematic as well but a bit more understandable even if I disagree with it.

 

[Test_Fan_Only]

Yep and Patterson gets dropped based on a list A tour in which he didn't get dismissed, 3 first class innings in which he got 4, 32 and 38 and this stupid green top shootout.

He's 26, got two tests, scored a hundred in his most recent test and gets dropped for Marnus Labuschagne

Labuschagne could not be left out but Marsh ahead of Patterson is almost criminal.