Black_Warrior
Cricketer Of The Year
2018 is going to be such an exciting year for Test cricket but also said that in 2016. **** it I'm always excited about Test Cricket.
Don't remember the last time I have been this excited about an Indian test side. I am not sure if they are playing in New Zealand to be in 2018 though. The FTP shows South Africa, England and Australia and there was no mention of New Zealand in all the pre season talk involving Shastri, Kohli or in the media.
That being said, if they do tour New Zealand, and if like Pakistan it's in November before the Australia series, then I will say New Zealand are favourites. If it's a short 2 test tour squeezed before the Australian series with zero warm ups and the team arrives a week before, it will be very difficult to beat them,
Yes India came close in 2014 but that was in February when the weather is different.
Regarding the remaining 3 - England, Australia and South Africa
India's best chance is in England. Among all the test sides today barring maybe West Indies and Sri Lanka, England is probably where most touring sides do their best relatively, which basically means England is not as strong as home as Australia is in Australia or India is in India.
2014 - Sri Lanka won there, India won the first test and yes they fell apart later but that is still a better showing than SC teams achieve in Australia or South Africa
2015 - New Zealand drew, and Australia even with their lolapse 60 all out managed to win 2 test matches out of 5.
2016 - Pakistan drew 2-2
Important thing to consider will be the fitness of Shami, Yadav and Bhuvi post the South African series and post an extremely long IPL season.
India have always had bowlers breaking down around that time of the year if you think about 2011 and 2014.
If the first choice pace attack remains fit, and Bhuvi is bowling as well as he does, India have a real chance in England. England's bowling is still heavily reliant on Anderson and Broad to do the heavy lifting and Pujara, Vijay, Rahul, Kohli, Rahane are all better Test batsmen than they were in 2014.
Fitness is the key here and India has the likes of Shami and Bhuvi breaking down to be replaced by the Binnys and Pankaj Kapoors, then forget about it.
Next best is South Africa.
I would put my money on South Africa to win the 1st test. Visiting teams rarely win the first test especially SC teams playing in South Africa or Australia. The 1st test is usually a hiding due to lack of preparation and familiarity with the conditions.
India is good enough to win at least 1 test match on this series. This is side is at it's peak now, no injuries and everyone should be at their prime fitness level. India should come back hard to win the 2nd test and I would expect both sides to be cautious in the third test, thus ending in a draw.
That being said, Kohli is all about 'aggression and losing to win' so who knows, he might not take the cautious approach.
The would leave Australia to be the toughest and the one with least chances. It is at the end of the season and not sure how many of these bowlers will still be fit and standing by the end of the year. Also, if South Africa and England don't go very well for India, that will also hamper the confidence and make up of the side and you might see a few different faces.
India's batting should do well on the flat decks like last time but you need an exceptional pace attack to win in Australia. England and India have decent attacks and that's not good enough on flat decks against them where you have the likes of Mitch Marsh blasting 150s.
Expect Dhawan, Pujara, Kohli and Rahane to shine. But beyond individual brilliance, don't see India winning a test match. If the batting holds up, we will see a few high scoring draws as the Australian attack is not exceptional either and it won't be easy to take 20 wickets in all 4 games.
My final thoughts
Best case if everything goes well for India
1-1 in South Africa
2-1 in England
0-2 in Australia
If things don't go according to plan and you have guys breaking down
1-2 in South Africa
1-3 in England
0-4 in Australia
Don't remember the last time I have been this excited about an Indian test side. I am not sure if they are playing in New Zealand to be in 2018 though. The FTP shows South Africa, England and Australia and there was no mention of New Zealand in all the pre season talk involving Shastri, Kohli or in the media.
That being said, if they do tour New Zealand, and if like Pakistan it's in November before the Australia series, then I will say New Zealand are favourites. If it's a short 2 test tour squeezed before the Australian series with zero warm ups and the team arrives a week before, it will be very difficult to beat them,
Yes India came close in 2014 but that was in February when the weather is different.
Regarding the remaining 3 - England, Australia and South Africa
India's best chance is in England. Among all the test sides today barring maybe West Indies and Sri Lanka, England is probably where most touring sides do their best relatively, which basically means England is not as strong as home as Australia is in Australia or India is in India.
2014 - Sri Lanka won there, India won the first test and yes they fell apart later but that is still a better showing than SC teams achieve in Australia or South Africa
2015 - New Zealand drew, and Australia even with their lolapse 60 all out managed to win 2 test matches out of 5.
2016 - Pakistan drew 2-2
Important thing to consider will be the fitness of Shami, Yadav and Bhuvi post the South African series and post an extremely long IPL season.
India have always had bowlers breaking down around that time of the year if you think about 2011 and 2014.
If the first choice pace attack remains fit, and Bhuvi is bowling as well as he does, India have a real chance in England. England's bowling is still heavily reliant on Anderson and Broad to do the heavy lifting and Pujara, Vijay, Rahul, Kohli, Rahane are all better Test batsmen than they were in 2014.
Fitness is the key here and India has the likes of Shami and Bhuvi breaking down to be replaced by the Binnys and Pankaj Kapoors, then forget about it.
Next best is South Africa.
I would put my money on South Africa to win the 1st test. Visiting teams rarely win the first test especially SC teams playing in South Africa or Australia. The 1st test is usually a hiding due to lack of preparation and familiarity with the conditions.
India is good enough to win at least 1 test match on this series. This is side is at it's peak now, no injuries and everyone should be at their prime fitness level. India should come back hard to win the 2nd test and I would expect both sides to be cautious in the third test, thus ending in a draw.
That being said, Kohli is all about 'aggression and losing to win' so who knows, he might not take the cautious approach.
The would leave Australia to be the toughest and the one with least chances. It is at the end of the season and not sure how many of these bowlers will still be fit and standing by the end of the year. Also, if South Africa and England don't go very well for India, that will also hamper the confidence and make up of the side and you might see a few different faces.
India's batting should do well on the flat decks like last time but you need an exceptional pace attack to win in Australia. England and India have decent attacks and that's not good enough on flat decks against them where you have the likes of Mitch Marsh blasting 150s.
Expect Dhawan, Pujara, Kohli and Rahane to shine. But beyond individual brilliance, don't see India winning a test match. If the batting holds up, we will see a few high scoring draws as the Australian attack is not exceptional either and it won't be easy to take 20 wickets in all 4 games.
My final thoughts
Best case if everything goes well for India
1-1 in South Africa
2-1 in England
0-2 in Australia
If things don't go according to plan and you have guys breaking down
1-2 in South Africa
1-3 in England
0-4 in Australia
