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Thread: How many more runs to come?

  1. #1
    International Regular Victor Ian's Avatar
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    How many more runs to come?

    If you were to tune into a test match and found a batsman on a particular score, how many more can you bank on them making, on average. All things being equal, then you can expect them to score their average. However, all things are not equal. Different batsmen perform differently once they get going. Take a look at the following. We can see that root performs quite poorly in comparison between 50 and 100 runs. However he then comes back with a vengeance, while Kohli performs badly thereafter in comparison to his peers.

    0 25 50 75 100 125 150
    williamson 50 69 66 85 97 75 162
    kohli 53 73 86 84 76 68 55
    smith 60 77 90 96 106 150 220
    root 53 64 58 67 127 159 236

    thisone.png

    I did a similar scenario for Tendulkar vs Lara, because we all know that Lara is king of staying in once he got going. As it turns out Tendulkar was better than him across the graph. It seems that not outs really hurt this analysis as they are more frequent in larger innings while larger innings become less frequent.

    So basically, is there any use to such an analysis? Are there other better ways of looking at this kind of thing?

  2. #2
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Wait how is Kohli worse after 100s? Has 6 double hundreds for god's sake.
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    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend NUFAN's Avatar
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    I swear the calculation method isnt the same for all 4 bats. How is root going to make a further 236 runs if you tune in and he is on 150.

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    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Victor Ian View Post
    If you were to tune into a test match and found a batsman on a particular score, how many more can you bank on them making, on average. All things being equal, then you can expect them to score their average.
    0 25 50 75 100 125 150
    williamson 50 69 66 85 97 75 162
    kohli 53 73 86 84 76 68 55
    smith 60 77 90 96 106 150 220
    root 53 64 58 67 127 159 236
    Something wrong with this for sure. Is it because of a large not out score followed by a hundred which has pushed Root and Smith and Williamson's numbers that high? Can be the only thing I can think of since Kohli is the best of the lot at going big.


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    International Coach Starfighter's Avatar
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    I'm quite confused by this tstl.
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  6. #6
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Root's 150+ scores - 180, 200*, 154*, 182*
    Smith's 150+ scores - 162*, 192, 199, 215, 165*, 178*
    Williamson's 150+ scores - 161*, 192, 242*, 166,
    Kohli's 150+ scores - 169, 200, 211, 167, 235, 204, 213, 243

    Yeah, it's because of not outs.

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    International Coach ajdude's Avatar
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    i love tuning in to see root on 75 and he goes on to make 67
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    International Coach Gnske's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajdude View Post
    i love tuning in to see root on 75 and he goes on to make 69
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  9. #9
    International Regular Victor Ian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harsh.ag View Post
    Something wrong with this for sure. Is it because of a large not out score followed by a hundred which has pushed Root and Smith and Williamson's numbers that high? Can be the only thing I can think of since Kohli is the best of the lot at going big.
    Yeah, it's the not outs that ruin things. For Tendulkar and Lara, they both average over another 500 runs*, once they get to 150. Absurd!

    So I am curious how you solve this problem. The idea in itself seems sound, so I was hoping some of the mathematically, or practically, inclined can solve this. Do you throw away not out innings (or count them as out) - seems like unfairly distorting the data. Should I use other forms of average? Should I consider balls to face instead of runs made? Should the columns beyond 100 be ignored because they use too few data points and are most likely heavily affected by declarations or hitting out.

    Can anyone shed light on Kohli, in the sense of match scenario? Is he often hitting out at the end, to the point he gets out but gets his team to stupid totals?

    Does this highlight that Root has a mental thing with the number 100. Once he goes past that, he is rather remarkable, yet getting there, once he gets close enough to think about it (past 50) seems to make weird things happen.

    edit: *(this is wrong - corrected below)
    Last edited by Victor Ian; 11-12-2017 at 07:53 AM.

  10. #10
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Just treat the not outs as outs imo. It's about how much you would expect them to score after 150, which should take into account things like declarations and running out of partners as well.
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  11. #11
    International Regular Victor Ian's Avatar
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    with not outs counting as outs....So just how many more runs expected, not average expected, which is the point of this thread

    0 25 50 75 100 125 150
    williamson 46 55 46 50 39 35 37
    kohli 49 62 66 64 50 68 55
    smith 51 56 53 56 44 32 35
    root 47 53 46 45 57 45 43

    and just for a bit of color...
    thatone.png

    Interesting. Does this show, that quite contrary to popular opinion, that Kohli is the best batsman going around...for the team? All that matters to the team is how many runs you get for them. Who gives a **** if you are not out. Your team can not use the runs that you didn't score on the ground.

  12. #12
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Whenever I do an exercise like thus, I jut take an average of all innings that are above the cutoff.

    Capture.PNG
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    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Victor Ian View Post
    with not outs counting as outs....So just how many more runs expected, not average expected, which is the point of this thread

    0 25 50 75 100 125 150
    williamson 46 55 46 50 39 35 37
    kohli 49 62 66 64 50 68 55
    smith 51 56 53 56 44 32 35
    root 47 53 46 45 57 45 43

    and just for a bit of color...
    thatone.png

    Interesting. Does this show, that quite contrary to popular opinion, that Kohli is the best batsman going around...for the team? All that matters to the team is how many runs you get for them. Who gives a **** if you are not out. Your team can not use the runs that you didn't score on the ground.
    That's not necessarily the case though. Most countries, you'd declare before ou hit the sorts of figures India hits at home.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    Whenever I do an exercise like thus, I jut take an average of all innings that are above the cutoff.

    Capture.PNG
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    International Debutant srbhkshk's Avatar
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    Nice analysis (although Kohli is not better than Smith, whatever the graph says, Smith has also had situation where he basically ran out of partners and ended up not-out at less score for no fault of his.)

    Could you post the results for Lara / Sachin (and if you are not doing this manually, might be good to see the data at 5 runs interval rather than 25.)

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