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Explaining Bradman - Baseball, Biology, Darwin, and Dinosaurs.

watson

Banned
I know the topic of Bradman's greatness has been done to death before, but the following video is too interesting to ignore.

In 9 minutes the Evolutionary Biologist Stephen Jay Gould explains why Bradman is unlikely to be better than Sobers, Richards, Lara and Tendulkar. Or if he is better, then only marginally.

Gould is American of course and therefore his theory centres around great batters in baseball, but it is still applicable to great batsman in cricket.

I won't claim to an expert in statistics so would welcome some comments (good, bad, or indifferent) from those who are.

 

Red

The normal awards that everyone else has
itstl

I found it interesting when he said the average batting average in baseball has stayed the same over the years (260?) while 400 is seen as some kind of peak, but 400 hasn't happened for a while, however people have come close.

I'm definitely no mathematician/statistician, but I'm not sure this
Watson said:
Stephen Jay Gould explains why Bradman is unlikely to be better than Sobers, Richards, Lara and Tendulkar
is actually what's happening. I'd be interested to know if the average batting average in cricket has changed over the years (my gut instinct says that from Hobbs time to present the average average of batsmen (top 6) would have been about the same). Someone will be able to work this out I'm sure. However, Bradman is still at least double and a bit more than the average.
 

watson

Banned
This is how I understand the ideas outlined in the video, and I am happy to be wrong.......

There is an absolute limit as to how good a batsman can be due to the constraints of human biomechanics, reflexes, eye sight, and depth of concentration. The greatest batsman from each era (for the sake of argument the 1920s onwards) are all very close to that absolute limit of excellence.

The reason that it is no longer possible to achieve an average that is twice as good as everyone else is because everyone else on the cricket field is better at playing cricket. Better batsman, better bowlers and better fielders. In other words, because everyone is closer to the absolute limit of cricketing excellence it makes it far more difficult for the likes of Sobers or Tendulkar to stand-out, to be a true statistical outlier.

The fallacy that Bradman is about twice as good as every other great batsman is a fallacy because it makes the false assumption that there is no absolute peak that batting can reach. Or if there is, then that peak can some how be moved. It cannot.

In real terms, Bradman, Sobers, Lara, and Tendulkar have all pushed the skill and art of batting to its absolute limits, and therefore to say that one is significantly better than the other doesn't make sense. To say that one great batsman is about twice as good as another great batsman appears rather silly.
 
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BackFootPunch

International 12th Man
The issue with using the baseball comparison is that even when a Ted Williams or a Ty Cobb hit over .400, they weren't as far ahead of their peers as Bradman was. In 1941 when Ted Williams hit .406, he wasn't even the leader in hits for the year - 5 other guys had more hits than him. Hitting .400, while pretty much impossible now, isn't the equivalent of someone averaging 99.94 in cricket. Hitting .400 is like averaging 65-70. Damn near impossible over a long period of time, but doable if you have a short career (just like someone can have a great year in baseball to hit .400).

Everything we've seen in cricket indicates the absolute peak that you speak of is around an average of 70. Some guys are near there, the next group aren't too far behind. Yet Bradman was absolutely miles above it.

So the entire theory about there being an absolute peak and a closing up of the range of ability, which looks really good and correct, is blown out of the water by Bradman.
 

watson

Banned
You have misunderstood the concept BFP. Averages are not absolute but instead are relative to the combined batting, bowling, and fielding skill levels of the era.
 
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Athlai

Not Terrible
Seems similar to the logic I usually present in these arguments, Bradman is sort of the exception to the rule though. His domination is so far ahead of his peers that there is every chance he would still be a better batsman than the greatest of today (Kane Williamson FTR).

Guptill > Hobbs though.
 

vcs

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Haven't watched the video, but I am naturally inclined to be skeptical about evolutionary theory etc. being applied to sports. Just seems too much of a stretch.

Bradman also kept up his numbers over a huge sample size in FC, did any of his peers emulate (or come close) to his 90+ FC average?
 

the big bambino

International Captain
I'd be interested to know if the average batting average in cricket has changed over the years (my gut instinct says that from Hobbs time to present the average average of batsmen (top 6) would have been about the same). Someone will be able to work this out I'm sure. However, Bradman is still at least double and a bit more than the average.
statsguru has the averages by decade (or any period you want to set). The averages are consistent from one decade to the next from the 1920s. It suggests standards in bowling and batting are reasonably matched even as they improve. So while averages aren't absolute there is enough data to support the contention they settle around the low to middle 30s for teams and great batsmen are those who average in the 50s. Bradman's average was achieved against a benchmark that has been common throughout cricket. There isn't any reason to believe someone wont be able to achieve its like again. Though the exception will be countered in odds so long there is more likelihood the game will be cease to be played before that happens.
 

TheJediBrah

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This is how I understand the ideas outlined in the video, and I am happy to be wrong.......

There is an absolute limit as to how good a batsman can be due to the constraints of human biomechanics, reflexes, eye sight, and depth of concentration. The greatest batsman from each era (for the sake of argument the 1920s onwards) are all very close to that absolute limit of excellence.

The reason that it is no longer possible to achieve an average that is twice as good as everyone else is because everyone else on the cricket field is better at playing cricket. Better batsman, better bowlers and better fielders. In other words, because everyone is closer to the absolute limit of cricketing excellence it makes it far more difficult for the likes of Sobers or Tendulkar to stand-out, to be a true statistical outlier.

The fallacy that Bradman is about twice as good as every other great batsman is a fallacy because it makes the false assumption that there is no absolute peak that batting can reach. Or if there is, then that peak can some how be moved. It cannot.

In real terms, Bradman, Sobers, Lara, and Tendulkar have all pushed the skill and art of batting to its absolute limits, and therefore to say that one is significantly better than the other doesn't make sense. To say that one great batsman is about twice as good as another great batsman appears rather silly.
Seems like a lot of theoretical and very little practical, especially when being applied to cricket. The biggest fallacy going on here is the application of any of these principles to Bradman and assuming it is somehow accurate to any extent IMO.

very interesting research done though and I applaud the effort, however suffice it to say I disagree almost entirely with your conclusion
 
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BackFootPunch

International 12th Man
You have misunderstood the concept BFP. Averages are not absolute but instead are relative to the combined batting, bowling, and fielding skill levels of the era.
No, I completely understand the concept. I think it's a perfectly valid theory and would be a fantastic way of explaining statistics in both cricket and baseball over time. Except, y'know, Bradman. He was so far ahead of everyone else in the era that he doesn't fit the concept.

Wally Hammond, of Bradman's era, is a guy hitting .400. He's one who was clearly above the vast majority of other players. Bradman is a guy hitting .600. He doesn't fit the model because he was an absolute freak. So saying he wasn't any better than Sobers, Richards, Tendulkar or Lara is doing him a massive disservice.
 

watson

Banned
Yeah, all excellent points.

But I think that if you are going to construct an argument against the 1930s Bradman being a significantly better batsman than the 1960s Sobers, or the 1990s Lara then the 'Stephen Jay Gould Theory' (as I call it) seems like the best one available.

After all, we are not just looking at a simple mathmatical comparison between Bradman V McCabe or Hassett. Rather we are looking at Lara V Tendulkar, Kallis etc within the context of facing McGrath, Warne, Donald, Wasim, Waqar etc on varied continents and pitches.

So ultimately the question becomes - is Bradman's skill level so superior that it is very likely that he would average nearly 20-50 runs more an innings more than Lara if he were in 'Lara's shoes'. Conversely, is Lara's skill level so inferior that he would not come close to averaging 100 if he were in 'Bradman's shoes'?

It's a vexed question, but a facinating one.
 
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the big bambino

International Captain
Bradman was once described as being so effective that if you had a hero of a book do the things he did a publisher would return it to the author as too fanciful. That will always be his problem. People are so sceptical now they'll look for reasons explaining his success. The bowling wasn't as good they'll say yet the bowling average (of the 30s at least) is comparable to any other era. Anyone else could do it so its claimed yet the batting averages of the next best in his era are comparable to the greats of all other eras. You can't tell me he's twice as good as Richards some sceptics claim. Well not quite. Not twice as talented and Richards at his best made scores nearly as large as Bradman's best. But he was twice as consistent and that is reflected in his average and century to innings played ratio. Look if you want an analogous comparison with a WI champion try Headley. He is a great of the game. Now could he have been that much worse than Lara or Viv? I think not. Yet he was some distance behind Bradman.
 

chasingthedon

International Regular
This is how I understand the ideas outlined in the video, and I am happy to be wrong.......

There is an absolute limit as to how good a batsman can be due to the constraints of human biomechanics, reflexes, eye sight, and depth of concentration. The greatest batsman from each era (for the sake of argument the 1920s onwards) are all very close to that absolute limit of excellence.

The reason that it is no longer possible to achieve an average that is twice as good as everyone else is because everyone else on the cricket field is better at playing cricket. Better batsman, better bowlers and better fielders. In other words, because everyone is closer to the absolute limit of cricketing excellence it makes it far more difficult for the likes of Sobers or Tendulkar to stand-out, to be a true statistical outlier.

The fallacy that Bradman is about twice as good as every other great batsman is a fallacy because it makes the false assumption that there is no absolute peak that batting can reach. Or if there is, then that peak can some how be moved. It cannot.

In real terms, Bradman, Sobers, Lara, and Tendulkar have all pushed the skill and art of batting to its absolute limits, and therefore to say that one is significantly better than the other doesn't make sense. To say that one great batsman is about twice as good as another great batsman appears rather silly.
I looked at the ICC ratings along these lines in this piece:-

A Measure of Greatness | Cricket Web

Through Test cricket history only Bradman and Hutton rated higher than Hobbs, while in Hobbs time the 5th player rates the same as the 20th player now (or at least at the time of the article).

Actually I mentioned this theory of Gould's in the feature.
 

Camo999

State 12th Man
From what I understand, Bradman was a real perfectionist. How do we know he was absolutely at the limit of his own ability when he had to work a full time job and didn't have the advantage of modern training, equipment and time to dedicate himself to the game? Geez if Voges can emulate Bradman's numbers, it would be interesting to see what Bradman could have done in this era where batting has surely never been easier.
 

GotSpin

Hall of Fame Member
Bradman was just a statistical freak.

These articles, that pop up every now and again, are based upon an almost unwillingness to accept that such a player could dominate and be so far ahead of his peers. Thus they attempt to tweak the numbers in any which way (including stats from a completely different game) in order to explain how such a freak wasn't actually so.
 
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GotSpin

Hall of Fame Member
Yeah, all excellent points.

But I think that if you are going to construct an argument against the 1930s Bradman being a significantly better batsman than the 1960s Sobers, or the 1990s Lara then the 'Stephen Jay Gould Theory' (as I call it) seems like the best one available.

After all, we are not just looking at a simple mathmatical comparison between Bradman V McCabe or Hassett. Rather we are looking at Lara V Tendulkar, Kallis etc within the context of facing McGrath, Warne, Donald, Wasim, Waqar etc on varied continents and pitches.

So ultimately the question becomes - is Bradman's skill level so superior that it is very likely that he would average nearly 20-50 runs more an innings more than Lara if he were in 'Lara's shoes'. Conversely, is Lara's skill level so inferior that he would not come close to averaging 100 if he were in 'Bradman's shoes'?

It's a vexed question, but a facinating one.
It's not just skill and you should know that. Bradman just had this insane determination and concentration to pile on runs. He kept this hunger for twenty years.

Basically, this whole argument revolves around an unwillingness to accept that a player was head and shoulders above other greats.
 

GotSpin

Hall of Fame Member
From what I understand, Bradman was a real perfectionist. How do we know he was absolutely at the limit of his own ability when he had to work a full time job and didn't have the advantage of modern training, equipment and time to dedicate himself to the game? Geez if Voges can emulate Bradman's numbers, it would be interesting to see what Bradman could have done in this era where batting has surely never been easier.
There's plenty of these arguments that go back and forth. Most of them are rather useless. At the end of the day, players must be judged against their contemporaries. If we are willing to chop off 40+ runs from Bradmans average, does that mean Morris wouldn't even make 1st grade or Keith Miller was so bad he couldn't pick up a bat.
 

StephenZA

Hall of Fame Member
This is a long ‘thesis’ so please feel free to ignore. But is has been my overall thought on Bradman. I apologize in advance.

Ok, I`m going to start this with a simple statement and then explain how I personally came to this conclusion. Do I think that Bradman is twice as talented or good as Sobers, Viv, Tendulkar, Lara, Kallis, AB, Kohli… take your pick. The answer is no. Do I think that Bradman is the greatest batsmen of all time, yes.

The first thing that has to be looked at is the statistics, because it is the only unbiased numerically accurate method of comparing players. And Bradman is an outlier. A number of corrections on those statistics can be done by looking at eras and finding an avg by which you can normalize these statistics. Based on things from the bowling avgs at the time versus batting avgs versus number of balls bowled versus how long a test went on for etc, etc, etc. (I have not crunched the numbers myself but many people have and many on this website have linked to the different ways in which you can compare these numbers.) Each and every time Bradman comes out as a statistical anomaly of having far greater numbers than anybody else. Nothing changes that. Now normally when you look at a statistical data set of numbers you will disregard any number that falls outside the bounds of the numbers as potentially flawed or unreliable data.

Now why something would be considered unreliable is many fold. However, this could mean that the measurement was inaccurate. Not so in this case. It could also mean however that circumstances surrounding the measurement was not truly indicative of ‘real’ circumstances. Unfortunately, this is where the problem comes in as there is no way to see if this second part is true or not, except by anecdotal evidence given by himself and those at the time, and some extra thought on why his stats could be so far different to everybody else’s.

Firstly he was a consummate professional (even by the modern era standards) who worked on his game constantly and loved cricket and everything about it. He was not the first to do this but in the era that he played this was still not the norm when compared say to the modern era. This alone would have given him a far better advantage than most of his contemporaries.

Secondly, by all accounts, he was a brilliantly talented sportsman (something like AB) who was good at just about every eye hand co-ordinated sports there was at the time. Now this is important because of numbers, at the time Bradman played there was far less people playing cricket amongst fewer nations (today, apparently, there is an estimated 120 million cricket players) than there has been since. Just because of the nature of things there has been an increase in the number of cricketers over the years. As an example of why this is important let’s look at a player facing club cricketers in Kenya (sorry Kenya!) is not the same as in England or Australia. Because there is more people playing the game in Aus and Eng the overall quality has improved compared to the Kenyan club teams. Thus an avg of 90 in Kenya is not necessarily better than an avg of 55 in Australia. Even if the overall batting avg in both club levels is 40 runs. (This is ultimately the point of the video that started this discussion regarding Bradman and player avg of older eras to new eras). Thus an exceptionally talented sportsman is likely to stand out amongst his peers in a smaller group than a larger group who potentially have a number of these types of players. The problem once again however is that you play against a team of the 11 best players and that provides another statistical obstacle because even if the overall player base is small it does not mean you don`t have 11 excellent players, there is just a smaller chance of this being true.

These two reasons could account for his superior numbers in his era; i.e. that his natural talent was far more unique in his era and combined with his natural determination and professionalism made him spectacular. In the modern era both these reasons are no longer true. Sport is now more professional, and the number of player’s, teams and games played against top quality opposition is higher. But there is still players that stand out above the others, just not quite so far above.

None of this takes away from Bradman’s achievement’s he would almost certainly have been a standout player, but would he have been so far in front of the pack is debatable. Would he have been the best, based on current evidence in all likelihood he would have been but there is no certainty. I consider him the best because he did something nobody would have thought as possible and gave something to the following generations to strive for. Even if they are never likely to achieve this.
 

the big bambino

International Captain
There were many cricketers who were professionals in Bradman's day and that factor did not make them better players. Talent is still the most important factor. More people playing a game doesn't always translate into higher quality teams. The WI have been a brilliant cricket nation with a population of around 5 million to pick from. Even now while they are a poor test side they are exceptionally good at ltd over formats.
 

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