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Thread: New feature: Career Impact - the next 500

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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    New feature: Career Impact - the next 500

    Following from my previous piece looking at the career impact on win probability of the first 1,000 Test players, here is a review of the next 500 chronolgically, i.e. those having made their Test debut between 1955 and 1976.

    Cricket Web - Features: Career Impact - the Next 500

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    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend fredfertang's Avatar
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    Interesting stuff again Dave - as an aside who, so far, has had the most impact of the one Test wonders?

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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Howe_zat's Avatar
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    Great stuff - I will have to spend some time wallowing in these numbers, will post thoughts later
    Join the CW Commentary Discord - https://discord.gg/2cYpfrf

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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fredfertang View Post
    Interesting stuff again Dave - as an aside who, so far, has had the most impact of the one Test wonders?
    Hi Martin, as I type this I'm sitting in a hotel room in a wet Montgomery, Alabama watching cricket on ESPN. If you'd told me 15 years ago I'd be typing that at some stage, I'd have given you the breathalyser.

    The three highest probably won't come as a surprise - Redmond had the most impact of all at 38.1%, followed by Marriott (27.2%) and Ganteaume (27.1%). Marriott's is lower than might be expected as England were in a strong position by the time he took a lot of his wickets, therefore the impact is not as high.


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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howe_zat View Post
    Great stuff - I will have to spend some time wallowing in these numbers, will post thoughts later
    Cheers Jake.

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    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Very engaging figures. Makes one think about so many facets of the players in question. Kanhai, for example, keeps coming up trumps wrt to the other windies bats in such comparisons, which is pleasing since he was so pleasing to the eye.

    Expected stuff from Lillee, Imran and Hadlee. Gavaskar was pretty much expected as well. Didn't think Boycott would get that high, but I suppose he came through on multiple occasions when everybody else was yawning.

    Simpson's fielding was always spoken of highly, and here it comes into play. I was wondering if you could let us know which players had the highest contribution through their fielding? Thanks for this. Looking forward to the 90s.
    ~ Do you think I care for you so little that betraying me would make a difference ~

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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harsh.ag View Post
    Very engaging figures. Makes one think about so many facets of the players in question. Kanhai, for example, keeps coming up trumps wrt to the other windies bats in such comparisons, which is pleasing since he was so pleasing to the eye.

    Expected stuff from Lillee, Imran and Hadlee. Gavaskar was pretty much expected as well. Didn't think Boycott would get that high, but I suppose he came through on multiple occasions when everybody else was yawning.

    Simpson's fielding was always spoken of highly, and here it comes into play. I was wondering if you could let us know which players had the highest contribution through their fielding? Thanks for this. Looking forward to the 90s.
    Of course.

    For wicket-keepers, the leaders in total career impact for fielding so far are:-

    704% Marsh
    538% Knott
    447% Evans
    430% Bari
    408% D Murray

    Marsh quite a bit ahead, but as he and Knott were very close overall this highlights Knott's superior batting. For non-WKs:-

    249% Simpson
    230% Richards
    226% Botham
    219% Gavaskar
    215% G Chappell

    On a per-Tests basis, WKs:-

    7.41% Marsh
    6.72% Grout
    6.63% Langley
    6.58% D Murray
    6.52% Lindsay

    As regards fielders, it's a bit more difficult to pinpoint them currently, but as might be expected Solkar is top with 4.79%, followed by Simpson on 4.01%. Jackie Hampshire is actually on 4.72%, but played only eight Tests and I applied a cut-off at 10 Tests.

    In terms of percentage of total impact just for fielding, for WKs:-

    88.4% Langley
    87.4% Duckworth
    85.7% Tallon
    84.3% Strudwick
    74.6% Strudwick
    72.5% D Murray

    For fielders, Phil Sharpe is top with 76.9%.
    Last edited by chasingthedon; 06-04-2014 at 04:29 PM.

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    Haven't seen percentages expressed as more than 100 before. Therefore, do I assume that the career impact for Simpson is greater than the average for all cricketers by a factor of 2.49?

    Must admit that its nice to see Simpson and Kanhai doing relatively well in your study CTD.

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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by watson View Post
    Haven't seen percentages expressed as more than 100 before. Therefore, do I assume that the career impact for Simpson is greater than the average for all cricketers by a factor of 2.49?

    Must admit that its nice to see Simpson and Kanhai doing relatively well in your study CTD.
    Actually it's more like a delta percentage - every time the percentage win probability changes, players get credit (or debit) for their part in it. So the career figures are an aggregate of all of the win probability deltas the player was involved with,positive and negative, in whichever discipline over his Test career. So Simpson achieved in total 249% in aggregate percentage increases in win probabilit as a result of his fielding aloney, at an average of just over 4% per Test.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chasingthedon View Post
    Actually it's more like a delta percentage - every time the percentage win probability changes, players get credit (or debit) for their part in it. So the career figures are an aggregate of all of the win probability deltas the player was involved with,positive and negative, in whichever discipline over his Test career. So Simpson achieved in total 249% in aggregate percentage increases in win probabilit as a result of his fielding aloney, at an average of just over 4% per Test.
    So the 'aggregate percentage' would probably favour the players who played a lot of matches then? Assuming that they didn't accumulate too many negatives, but stayed either neutral or positive most of the time.

    That is, someone like Archie Jackson could never have a substantial 'total career impact'. For him the 'per Test Basis' would hold more value.

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    International Regular chasingthedon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by watson View Post
    So the 'aggregate percentage' would probably favour the players who played a lot of matches then? Assuming that they didn't accumulate too many negatives, but stayed either neutral or positive most of the time.

    That is, someone like Archie Jackson could never have a substantial 'total career impact'. For him the 'per Test Basis' would hold more value.
    Correct, as with any aggregate figure those who play more games have an advantage, though as you say the per-Test average offsets that. The beauty of this measure is that we're not looking at runs or wickets or dismissals, this measure has the same base units, i.e. percentage change in win probability, so we can get an all-round figure for all players inclusive of every discipline.



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