I hope with every ounce of my being that you and Muloghonto are very wrong.
With the future the two of you are predicting then maybe T20 cricket will become a more global game and will attract new followers..........but they will lose their existing ones for sure. Not sure it is a good business model to discard your existing client base and try and start from scratch.
The other thing is surely the players in great demand for T20 across the globe are only in demand for reputations and success obtained in the longer formats?? I do not believe that T20 cricket can or will survive on it's own, it might be where the Dollars are at this point in time but it is standing on the foundations of Tests and One dayers.
Sadly I think there is an inevitability about it now. The horse has bolted from the gate. Players can see the massive amount of money on offer in the IPL and only really the boards of England and Australia can offer competitive contracts to keep their players interested in test cricket. How do Zimbabweans or Sri Lankans or Pakistanis making barely enough to get by put test cricket ahead of a T20 superleague? These countries offer a pittance in comparison to England. In England you can make a decent living playing first class cricket- that's why you get plenty of people turning up from around the world in England to play first class cricket.
Countries are cancelling tests because they can't afford to host them. You've basically got 3 countries in England, Australia and India who could can sustain the current model. And even they struggle. Most of the first class counties are only held up by ECB money made from tours against India, Australian, and World cups.
This bilateral tour agreement thing may seem like a horrow show for the smaller countries but I'm guessing the Sri Lankan or ZImbabwean board is reasonably happy. They won't have to put on tests tours that lose them vast amounts of money. Now clearly this is terrible for the future development of these test playing nations but they are no longer losing massive money.
Cricket will lose some fans but gain a lot more. I'm indifferent about T20 cricket. It is cricket (regardless of what some people say) but I'm in no way engaged by the game in the same way as test or even 50 over cricket. There are little of the intricacies and tactics that are involved in test cricket. The recent SA IND drawn test was incredible but still the ground was far from full on that final day- a game which was between two of the best teams in the world. A game which was played over 5 days and with half an hour left both of the teams could still win, lose or draw. Where else can you get that?
With T20 batting becomes more and more about brute strength. Players are challenged less mentally.
T20 as a game appeals to the masses. It's exciting and short enough that you don't have to waste a day watching it. You can sell it profitably.
If you had more countries like England, Aus and India you could have a sustainable game but you don't - you have countries like Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Countries with massive troubles and big infrastructure and economic problems.
