Little Master, Big Impact

[chasingthedon]

My overall work on career win probability impact trundles on, however with the news of Tendulkar's retirement I couldn't resist looking ahead at Tendulkar's career in those terms. I admit I was surprised by the result.

Cricket Web - Features: Little Master, Big Impact

 

[ankitj]

Thanks for this piece. Interesting read.

 

[harsh.ag]

Good stuff. I just don't get interested in exercises such as that, but you seem to have a decent model going.

 

[chasingthedon]

Cheers guys.

 

[indiaholic]

Cheers guys.

Some excellent work there. I think theoretically this is the best way to tease out an individual's contribution to the game. Just out of curiosity, how is the probability value of a team winning calculated?

 

[chasingthedon]

Cheers mate.

The win probability is calculated by first determining the match situation, then searching the database to find all matches in Test history where a similar match situation existed and looking at the various outcomes. We might find that in 75 similar match situation, the batting side won on 10 occasions, that would represent a win probability of 10/75 = 13.3%.