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hat-tricks
- Thread starter Lokomotiv
- Start date
harsh.ag
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Oddly enough, hattricks are most commonplace during World Cups, and this was true prior to the introduction of a truckload of associate nations as well. However, the probability function of hattricks occurring has three variables:
i) The skill of the bowler in question (skills which matter most are inswinging yorkers, fast outswingers, off spin, deceptive bouncers, and what not)
ii) The quality of the batting tail (this is where the hattrick usually takes place)
iii) Attacking field placement, especially slips and short legs etc.
iv) Also, an unknown parameter (error parameter) is there to account for unforeseen, random reasons, which accounts for about 89.25% of the probability.
Hope I was of some help.
i) The skill of the bowler in question (skills which matter most are inswinging yorkers, fast outswingers, off spin, deceptive bouncers, and what not)
ii) The quality of the batting tail (this is where the hattrick usually takes place)
iii) Attacking field placement, especially slips and short legs etc.
iv) Also, an unknown parameter (error parameter) is there to account for unforeseen, random reasons, which accounts for about 89.25% of the probability.
Hope I was of some help.
harsh.ag
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Using this for ODIs, the probability of a hattrick occurring in the next 3 balls (any next three balls) is approx. 0.000026 or 0.0026%
smash84
The Tiger King
Which sounds a little off
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smash84
The Tiger King
Did you use the denominator as the total number of wickets available in all the ODI matches (i.e. 20 per match) divided by 3? That IMO would be the possible number of hattricks available
harsh.ag
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Okay. The 0.000026 number is mistaken. Given that in one ODI, 6.67 hat-tricks are possible (given that hat-trick deliveries can be carried on to the next match), and that there have been 3355 ODIs to date, the total number of possible hat-tricks would be 22377.85. The actual number of ODI hat-tricks have been 33. Hence, for now, the probability of a hat-trick occurring in the next ODI game (an average of, say, 96 overs per match since the early matches were of 60 overs per side) is 0.00147 or 0.147% - 33/22377.85. I don't think I can obtain a per over or per next-3-ball probability because of the restricted number of hat-tricks possible in one game.
harsh.ag
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Well, many ODIs result in far fewer overs than full, esp. if you include rain-affected matches. Anyways, the number of overs per match does not affect the above number of 0.14% in any way as it is a per ODI number.
Red
The normal awards that everyone else has
I took two hat tricks one season. That was when I was 10 kilos lighter and could bowl better.
nightprowler10
Global Moderator
Thinking about hattricks, was Irfan Pathan's first over hattrick the oddest of the bunch? Took out three in form batsmen in the first over of the Test match, yet his team still managed to lose by 300-odd runs.
Hurricane
Hall of Fame Member
No. I have heard of it in school boy cricket in my home town. But not in professional cricket.
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