halsey said:
So both of them have averaged in the mid to late 40's for a considerable time now, and have just been lucky? Yes, lucky if they've played 5 tests, not lucky if played 30 to 40. The luck will even itself out over that period of time.
It’s a popular belief and in some cases it’s totally untrue. Most batsmen have slightly more good luck than bad over a career; some (like Trescothick) have much more good luck. Even in The Ashes and the first 4 South Africa Tests, he was still getting luck, just fortunately it wasn’t resulting in undeserved big scores.
As for Vaughan, I can give you an exact breakdown if you like:
115 v SL, Lords: dropped on 28 and 33 by Jayasuriya at second-slip.
100 v Ind, Lord’s: dropped by Ratra on 50, caught-behind on 77 and given not-out, lbw on 89 and given not-out, should have been caught on 97 by any other fielder than Ganguly.
197 v Ind, Trent Bridge: dropped by Patel on 19.
Even in a 55 against India at Headingley, he still managed to get dropped twice in 2 balls, before giving yet another chance shortly after and it being taken.
177 v Aus, Adelaide Oval: caught at cover on 19, given not-out by a gutless third-Umpire.
As I say, Vaughan himself, to his credit, admitted to his luck, so to deny it is rather silly.
He had lots of luck in a short period of time; other than that, there hasn’t been much. He played 3 good innings in that time, too, at The Oval (195), MCG (146?) and SCG (187). However, since the start of the 2003 season his luck has dried-up. He has made 2 centuries (Edgbaston v SA; Kandy v SL) and a half-century (Kandy v SL) but his average, excluding the Bangladesh games, is poor.
IMO he would do far better, with his style of play, in the middle-order.