New feature - Win Probability

[chasingthedon]

Dave Wilson investigates if it's possible to assess individual win contributions, with the aid of possibly the greatest ever Test match.

Cricket Web - Features: Win Probability

 

[NUFAN]

Interesting.

So after realizing that the first method wasn't fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?

 

[Prince EWS]

I love it.

I'd automate it all for you but I don't have FOW data in my database and don't see any easy way to get it in there.

 

[uvelocity]

really good. can i ask how you calculate the win probability?

 

[Howe_zat]

I nerdgasmed

 

[chasingthedon]

I love it.

I'd automate it all for you but I don't have FOW data in my database and don't see any easy way to get it in there.

Cheers mate. Spent a while doing that but don't have the nous to query it - there's still some work to do, but if you let me have your email I'll send you what I have. Also I'll let you know the required queries on the database.

 

[chasingthedon]

really good. can i ask how you calculate the win probability?

Sure. Say a match situation is 170/3 in the first innings, I search the results for all Tests which had that same situation; say we find that there have been 259 Tests with that situation, and the results of those tests were

batting team win: 102
Draw: 126
bowling team win: 31

Clearly the home team is favoured in this situation and we can calculate each team's win probability from the above numbers, and at any stage of the match.

 

[chasingthedon]

Interesting.

So after realizing that the first method wasn't fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?

Actually not yet as I'd need to look at all their Tests and calculatte the win probability at each stage of the match, and it isn't as yet automated. Though Rob (see above) might be able to.

 

[chasingthedon]

I nerdgasmed

Careful now.

 

[sledger]

This reminds me of the first chance average theory.

 

[Гурин]

'Win probability added' has been around for sometime already in baseball, is a good descriptive tool (altough not so good from a predictive point of view, but who cares), it's great that somebody started to calculate it in cricket. Then there are also the win shares, but it's a bit more difficult to work on that concept

However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it's not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that'll be for some other time.

Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.

 

[chasingthedon]

'Win probability added' has been around for sometime already in baseball, is a good descriptive tool (altough not so good from a predictive point of view, but who cares), it's great that somebody started to calculate it in cricket. Then there are also the win shares, but it's a bit more difficult to work on that concept

However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it's not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that'll be for some other time.

Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.

Thanks for reading and commenting, don't think I've had one from Russia before.

Agreed, there are other things to take into account for draws. One difficulty is, if we want to give credit to an individual for forcing a draw, we need to know at what point they started playing for a draw, or at least at what point a draw becomes a favourable result. Also, that credit would probably only be appropriate at a later stage of the game. Similarly,increasing the probability of a draw is not necessarily always a good thing.

The information is there, but the intangibles are myriad and hugely complicate the issue.

It seems Win Shares is a measure that takes into account everything a player does? I did come up with something along those lines, called Series Points, link here:-

Cricket Web - Features: Series Points - A New Way of Ranking Test Players