CW Stock Exchange Project

[harsh.ag]

Yeah, and for the players to revolt against the selectors every so often.

And I'm out of economic theories; haven't got to Institutional Economics yet and I cbf applying Smith and Ricardo to it.

Actually, Ricardo would probably ask India to provide the middle order batsmen, Pakistan the left arm quicks, South Africa the fieldsmen, England the openers, the West Indies the right arm quicks and Australia the top order. Makes for a more efficient team.

Yeah, in Ricardo's world, there would be no international cricket. Just club cricket.

Malthus would be aghast that we were using pieces of wood, leather and huge spaces that could be used for more productive ends.

Malthus would be aghast we were 7 billion people large, and still going strong
Not to mention a cool 1 billion of those people addicted to the pieces of wood, leather and huge spaces.

 

[harsh.ag]

If the ICC ratings are used as the gauge, then once the ICC formula for ratings become known (which I am guessing is not the most sophisticated equation in history), it merely becomes a question of this forum acting like some sort of a low-yield bond mutual fund. There is no volatility to speak of. No risk premiums, and no beta values per se. It will be boring! Only derivatives can spice it up.

 

[Quaggas]

The ICC ranking could be used as some form of value for established players but that doesn't take into account batting and bowling or débutantes.

IPOs typically don't pay dividends either. At that point it's a growth stock that may well crash and burn. Can still "IPO" a debutant, more speculative play.

 

[Quaggas]

If the ICC ratings are used as the gauge, then once the ICC formula for ratings become known (which I am guessing is not the most sophisticated equation in history), it merely becomes a question of this forum acting like some sort of a low-yield bond mutual fund. There is no volatility to speak of. No risk premiums, and no beta values per se. It will be boring! Only derivatives can spice it up.

You are paying for a players future ICC ranking, which depends on a players output. Whether the formula is known or not is irrelevant. Just like microsoft, I know how they generate earnings but can only guess at demand for their products.

If you can predict rankings, you'll make a ton of "money" - no different from firms. The volatility might be quite high despite relatively smooth rankings, as with firms (dividends are very smooth).

Derivatives are simply a way of leveraging, but you'd get the same effect if you allowed borrowing.

 

[honestbharani]

This is a great idea

 

[honestbharani]

That's actually pretty good. I particularly like the ICC ranking aspect as it takes the human element out.

Seconded. And yeah, juz wanna advance book a slot if this is ever up and running..

 

[harsh.ag]

You are paying for a players future ICC ranking, which depends on a players output. Whether the formula is known or not is irrelevant. Just like microsoft, I know how they generate earnings but can only guess at demand for their products.

If you can predict rankings, you'll make a ton of "money" - no different from firms. The volatility might be quite high despite relatively smooth rankings, as with firms (dividends are very smooth).

Derivatives are simply a way of leveraging, but you'd get the same effect if you allowed borrowing.

The problem is that the way the ICC ratings are handled is too smooth and not volatile at all, especially because there are no external disruptions of any kind (debutantes excluded). It is not too difficult to predict where most players are going to be ranked a week from now. Derivatives are interesting because then you can actually bet today on the players' ratings 6 months or 1 year (or more) from now. Way more fun than holding on to a mutual fund type mix of players week after week, only unloading one or two based on a test (if there is a test).

P.S. You might know how Microsoft generates its earnings, but there is no way in hell that you know how the whole technology sector is going to play out by the end of the week, not even 30% unless you are a big shark.

 

[Quaggas]

The problem is that the way the ICC ratings are handled is too smooth and not volatile at all, especially because there are no external disruptions of any kind (debutantes excluded). It is not too difficult to predict where most players are going to be ranked a week from now. Derivatives are interesting because then you can actually bet today on the players' ratings 6 months or 1 year (or more) from now. Way more fun than holding on to a mutual fund type mix of players week after week, only unloading one or two based on a test (if there is a test).

P.S. You might know how Microsoft generates its earnings, but there is no way in hell that you know how the whole technology sector is going to play out by the end of the week, not even 30% unless you are a big shark.

Firms' earning are also known relatively accurately on a shorter basis, and if very well known the market value is relatively stable. Surprise announcements (reg-fd) are like test match events; they update the information set - though some of us are better at predicting the outcomes than others (see CC) and will do better on average.

One point though - many firms are levered, the players are not. However, you could easily have CW's IPO chief add leverage and even adjust it as time went on.

Derivatives are fine for speculators, but are a red herring for the market as a whole (ZNS, can be very well dynamically hedged with cash and player stock)

Edit: Given MS has unpriced risk, determining the sector's future as a whole is probably easier, not harder.

 

[harsh.ag]

Firms' earning are also known relatively accurately on a shorter basis, and if very well known the market value is relatively stable. Surprise announcements (reg-fd) are like test match events; they update the information set - though some of us are better at predicting the outcomes than others (see CC) and will do better on average.

One point though - many firms are levered, the players are not. However, you could easily have CW's IPO chief add leverage and even adjust it as time went on.

Derivatives are fine for speculators, but are a red herring for the market as a whole (ZNS, can be very well dynamically hedged with cash and player stock)

Edit: Given MS has unpriced risk, determining the sector's future as a whole is probably easier, not harder.

Might not be too bad. Keeping track of who owns what percentage of a player's stock would be a nightmare for the moderator(s) though.

 

[Burgey]

Trade in Watson, Pattinson, Khawaja and Johnson Inc shares has been suspended owing to compliance issues with ASIC.

 

[Smudge]

I'm keen to buy low right now with Jesse Ryder....



Too soon?

 

[Cabinet96]

Yup.

 

[Jarquis]

What is the price on Harris atm?

 

[benchmark00]

$15.70

 

[Agent Nationaux]

Adam Smith would advocate the team to be made up of all the selfish players.

 

[benchmark00]

Spreadsheet boffins:

It's been about eight years since I did stats at uni, just wondering is it possible to make a time series graph just from spreadsheet data.

So say I want to map the fluctuations throughout the year for a player, could I just enter the share price of a player once a month and then create a graph easily from that information to show his fluctuations?

 

[LongHopCassidy]

Adam Smith would advocate the team to be made up of all the selfish players.

It is not Jacques Kallis' exceptional drive, talent or dedication that gets him runs but his self-interest that makes it so.

 

[NUFAN]

Hey Startingteammark00, will it be just Test Cricket? I don't think I'd use ICC ratings, would prefer a small group to decide on players value.

Perhaps have some set criteria in place to help give a guide on players value. ICC for instance don't give full ratings until the player has played a certain number of games. Would that mean someone like Jadeja or du Plessis rating would be a little lower than other experienced players if they were in the same form?

 

[Jarquis]

$15.70 is pricey.

I know it was half suggested earlier but I genuinely reckon Cribb's rankings would be a good starting point for this. Make some manual adjustments to it but it'd be a great place to start.

 

[LongHopCassidy]

Spreadsheet boffins:

It's been about eight years since I did stats at uni, just wondering is it possible to make a time series graph just from spreadsheet data.

So say I want to map the fluctuations throughout the year for a player, could I just enter the share price of a player once a month and then create a graph easily from that information to show his fluctuations?

Yeah, you could do it in two clicks. Excel 2010 >>>> Excel 2003.