|04-02-2013, 09:22 AM||#32 (permalink)|
Join Date: Nov 2011
fwiw i was thinking about this again
Age at which England regulars of the last 10/15 years played their last game
Strauss 35, Collingwood 34, Harmison 30, Flintoff 31, Vaughan 33, Sidebottom 32, Hoggard 31, Trescothick 30, Giles 33, Butcher 32, Hussain 36, Alex Stewart 40, Gough 32, Atherton 33, Caddick 34, Hick 34, Ramprakash 32
mean age is 33.05
batsmen age is 33.9
bowling age is 31.86
Now look at how the team changed over 5 year period.
Cook, Vaughan, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bopara, Prior, Sidebottam, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar(SL Dec 2007 )
Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)
Test – 2002/03
Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, White, Giles, Caddick, Hoggard, Jones(1st test vs Aus 2002)
Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Key, Crawley, Stewart, Dawson, Caddick, Hoggard, Harmison(5th test 2003)
Today – Cook, Compton,Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Root,Prior, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson, (Panesar, Bresnan, Bairstow)
From 2002/03 to 07/08 Vaughan, Hoggard and Harmison were the only 3 remaining. From 07/08 to 12/13 4 or 5 remain - Cook, KP, Bell, Prior,Panesar.
Would suggest that from 2012/13 to 17/18 the most likely number remaining is 3,4 or 5.
Test in 5 years time – Cook(33), Compton(34),Trott(36), Pietersen(37), Bell(35), Root(27),Prior(35), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28), Anderson (35)
Given the data provided earlier I'd predict
Cook, Finn and Root are the only three I would say are likely to be still playing in 5 years time. I'd imagine one of KP, Bell or Trott will still be going. My guess is Trott is still going- came to test cricket late and seems to just love batting. Bell will be dropped sometime in the future for bad form, and KP has been complaining about the schedule for the last couple of years so he's unlikely to make it.
Compton probably isn't good enough and will be dropped well before 5 years. Prior has a dodgy achilles which he is constantly managing and a lot of promising wicketkeeping batsmen who will challenge for his place in a few years. Swann with his elbow no chance. Anderson is fit but not one english fast bowler of recent times has made it to 35.
Even with Broad you have to doubt if he makes it another 5 years, given he's already got 5 years of regular cricket in all formats behind him and is quite injury prone and inconsistent with form.
The team I selected though probably has the wrong balance with too many young players
Cook (33), Chopra (30), Root(27), Ballance(28), Thakor(24), Stokes(26), A Davies(23), Overton(23), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23). Avg age 26.6
It's much more likely to have a few more current lions players in place of the really young players. I'd suggest something like this
Cook(33), Chopra(30), Trott(36), Root(27), Taylor(28), Stokes(26), Bairstow(28), Broad(31), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23) avg age 28.9
|06-02-2013, 03:43 AM||#35 (permalink)|
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Last edited by M0rphin3; 06-02-2013 at 04:01 AM.
|06-02-2013, 03:47 AM||#36 (permalink)|
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|06-02-2013, 04:58 AM||#38 (permalink)|
Join Date: Apr 2007
1. Alastair Cook
2. Joe Root
3. Jonny Bairstow
4. Ian Bell
5. Ben Stokes
6. Ben Foakes +
7. Chris Woakes
8. Stuart Broad
9. Azeem Rafiq
10. James Anderson
11. Steven Finn
(James Harris, Jos Buttler)
1. David Warner
2. Phil Hughes
3. Kurtis Patterson
4. Joe Burns
5. Michael Clarke *
6. Steven Smith
7. Tim Paine +
8. Ashton Agar
9. James Pattinson/Pat Cummins
10. Peter Siddle
11. Mitchell Starc
(Jackson Bird, Nic Maddinson)
1. Quinton de Kock
2. Stiaan van Zyl
3. Hashim Amla
4. Rilee Rossouw
5. AB de Villiers
6. Faf du Plessis
7. Dane Vilas +
8. Chris Morris
9. Vernon Philander
10. Dale Steyn
11. Ayabulela Gqamane
(Lizaad Williams, Obus Pienaar)
1. Martin Guptill
2. Hamish Rutherford
3. Kane Williamson *
4. Ross Taylor
5. Tom Latham
6. BJ Watling
7. Will Young
8. Ish Sodhi
9. Tim Southee
10. Matt Henry/Bevan Small
11. Trent Boult
(Ben Wheeler, Daniel Flynn)
|06-02-2013, 05:41 AM||#39 (permalink)|
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Join Date: Dec 2009
RVD doesn't care about ability he just wants the Stokes/Foakes/Woakes combination to be playing.
If Anderson and Steyn are still playing in 5 years time both will have over 500 wickets.
Last edited by flibbertyjibber; 06-02-2013 at 05:42 AM.
|06-02-2013, 06:23 AM||#40 (permalink)|
Eyes not spreadsheets
Join Date: Nov 2001
If Dernbach is still playing in 5 years time he'll have an E/R of 7+ in ODIs
marc71178 - President and founding member of AAAS - we don't only appreciate when he does well, but also when he's not quite so good!
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|06-02-2013, 12:46 PM||#42 (permalink)|
First Class Debutant
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: South Africa
4) de Villiers
7) Vilas/Duminy (depending on whether we push de Kock as a keeper or if we do what we did with de Villiers when he was young)
Extra youngsters to watch:
[forgotten first name] Savage
Marchant de Lange
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|06-02-2013, 01:58 PM||#43 (permalink)|
Join Date: Oct 2003
6. Steve Smith
Backing Watson to kick-on with the bat and stay fit once he gives up bowling, keeping him in the test side until 36. Cummins and Bird to be the quicks on the periphery who are regularly rotated with the other 3.
|06-02-2013, 02:49 PM||#44 (permalink)|
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FWIW I don't really see any reason why Jimmeh won't be around in 4 years time. Hasn't played T20 for 3 years and I expect him to chuck ODIs after the World Cup to prolong his Test career.
|06-02-2013, 03:17 PM||#45 (permalink)|
Join Date: Nov 2011
It's only predictions and there is a lot more work that could be done on the statistics of career lengths - I've just briefly browsed some retirement ages.
England players recent careers seem to be on average shorter than other countries.
re Anderson. He could still be going given his fitness levels and he doesn't rely on pure pace. But rarely do international bowlers of any country go far past 35.
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