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Thread: Fully Scientific Selection

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    Cricketer Of The Year Manee's Avatar
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    Fully Scientific Selection

    Hi,

    Was wondering what reservations the CC posters on CW have about a domestic or international team employing a more scientific and less intuition based selection policy (i.e. the sort of stuff that is regarded as common sense on these forums) for their team, rigorously.

    For example, we would not have seen the debut of Cummins as quick as we did and he picked up six wickets. We would have seen the debut of Vinay Kumar in Test cricket earlier and he did poorly and perhaps is not Test quality, though I am aware of the dangers of judging after just one match.

    I cannot think of better examples atm, but the question I am asking is, is the consensus of selection in CW via a statistical method the best way to select teams or does this system throw up some major errors and anomalies and what are these?
    The speed at which a fielding team gets through the innings is overrated.

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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Flem274*'s Avatar
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    Very Simplistic Scientific Selection of New Zealand from the start of our summer

    Peter Ingram
    Brendon McCullum
    Mathew Sinclair
    Ross Taylor
    Kane Williamson
    James Franklin
    Kruger van Wyk
    Daniel Vettori
    Tim Southee
    Mark Gillespie
    Michael Mason

    Make of that what you will...

    edit: Cribb's CPL database selections would be more scientific. Would be itstl what his sides are off pure CPL.

    Basically, I'm all for scientific selection but there is a point - Franklin's Law - where ya gotta stop. There is also room for the Cummins/Bracewell selection, but if it flops the selectors should be rightly slammed.

    You also have to include an interpretation with your raw data i.e. think about how likely Player X is to transfer his assets to international cricket and what you are looking for in your side.
    Last edited by Flem274*; 08-04-2012 at 07:06 AM.
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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Spikey's Avatar
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    in the future all selection panels will have been made redundant by the PEWS database
    Indians can't bowl - Where has the rumour come from as I myself and many indian friends arwe competent fast bowlers ?

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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Spikey's Avatar
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    this will lead to England having to forfeit a must win Ashes test due to the database being down


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    Cricketer Of The Year Manee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flem274* View Post
    You also have to include an interpretation with your raw data i.e. think about how likely Player X is to transfer his assets to international cricket and what you are looking for in your side.
    And is this something that can be codified at all? Is a fast-medium or RF bowler more likely to convert skills or is it strictly case-by-case?

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    Would be the worst thing in the world itbt.
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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Flem274*'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manee View Post
    And is this something that can be codified at all? Is a fast-medium or RF bowler more likely to convert skills or is it strictly case-by-case?
    Definitely case by case. I'm all for Medium Rights.

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    Quote Originally Posted by benchmark00 View Post
    Would be the worst thing in the world itbt.
    You're the sort of **** who would pick James Marshall aren't you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flem274* View Post
    edit: Cribb's CPL database selections would be more scientific. Would be itstl what his sides are off pure CPL.
    Yeah I've made a lot of posts about this. In the match Watling kept wicket against Zimbabwe, CPL would've picked the exact same New Zealand XI that New Zealand actually did, bar van Wyk in for Watling. van Wyk has since gone on to show that hardly would've been the worst selection ever as well.

    Not even I believe teams should select completely off something like this though. Fully scientific selection as stipulated in the thread title would be beyond ridiculous for several reasons.

    I would actually post the "What CPL thinks each Test side should be" lineups up, but it'd compromise the CWPL draft going on at the moment.
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    International Captain Ruckus's Avatar
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    Selection has to be based both on stats and observation, not one or the other. E.g. there are heaps of cases of players who have awesome initial records in domestic competion, but later fade into mediocrity. If you were using just blind stats to pick them, it might seem the right decision when their record looks impressive but it would be missing the crucial observations that should tell you their record flatters them and they aren't actually good enough for the highest level.

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    Cricketer Of The Year Manee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flem274* View Post
    Definitely case by case. I'm all for Medium Rights.
    What about the other way around. I'd expect a very quick but wayward bowler to dominate Indian domestic cricket (e.g. Mohammad Sami) but struggle in Test cricket.

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    An Indian T20 team that's based largely on T20 specialists picked from the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy.
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    Cricketer Of The Year Manee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arjun View Post
    An Indian T20 team that's based largely on T20 specialists picked from the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy.
    eH?

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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Flem274*'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manee View Post
    What about the other way around. I'd expect a very quick but wayward bowler to dominate Indian domestic cricket (e.g. Mohammad Sami) but struggle in Test cricket.
    Well that's where interpretation comes in.

    And I don't necessarily think a quick bowler would get away with being wayward, especially in a seamers graveyard like India. Pretty much every test nation has had quick but wayward bowlers in their domestic comps who can't take any wickets because any FC batsman worth their salt can dispatch them.

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    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    The term "scientific" doesn't really make sense in this context.

    And no, it wouldnt work because we simply have too many unknowns.
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