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Old 20-03-2012, 10:11 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I can't at all see the relevance of a two-Test series for a guy who averages 23 over a 50+ Test career.

I'm sure we could do this with the Don, Wally Hammond, anyone.
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Old 22-03-2012, 06:49 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Two Tests is far too few. Imagine if Steyn sent down 500 balls over the course of two hypothetical Tests, and took only 10 wickets at an SR of 50 and with his economy rate of 3.5, at an average of just under 30. Imagine that he had a catch dropped, a close lbw shout not given (although it was out) and an inswinger that beat the batsman and missed off stump by two millimeters.

In this example, with a tiny bit of extra luck he could have had 13 wickets, an SR of 38 and am average of 22 (more like his real life stats). Fluctuations of luck occur like this all the time, and the smaller the sample size the greater the effect.

If he'd been smashed for 6 an over and took no wickets then maybe that could be considered a failing, otherwise it falls within the margin of error IMO.
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Old 22-03-2012, 06:58 AM   #18 (permalink)
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That series is clear proof that Anderson & Broad are better than him. FACT.
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Old 22-03-2012, 07:22 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Kiwi, you couldn't have explained that better, perfect. Looking forward to Steyn bowling tomorrow (hopefully), too
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Old 22-03-2012, 07:10 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by kiwiviktor81 View Post
Two Tests is far too few. Imagine if Steyn sent down 500 balls over the course of two hypothetical Tests, and took only 10 wickets at an SR of 50 and with his economy rate of 3.5, at an average of just under 30. Imagine that he had a catch dropped, a close lbw shout not given (although it was out) and an inswinger that beat the batsman and missed off stump by two millimeters.

In this example, with a tiny bit of extra luck he could have had 13 wickets, an SR of 38 and am average of 22 (more like his real life stats). Fluctuations of luck occur like this all the time, and the smaller the sample size the greater the effect.

If he'd been smashed for 6 an over and took no wickets then maybe that could be considered a failing, otherwise it falls within the margin of error IMO.
You've described Anderson's UAE series.
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Yup, much more likely. In any case, I will back [Insert Indian Random Batting Order] against Swann in India every day. If they win, it won't be on Swann's back - though he could be valuable to keep things tight and maybe a wicket or two.
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Old 23-03-2012, 12:41 AM   #21 (permalink)
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And smalishah's avatar is the most classy one by far Jan certainly echoes the sentiments of CW

Yeah we don't crap in the first world; most of us would actually have no idea what that was emanating from Ajmal's backside. Why isn't it roses and rainbows like what happens here? PEWS's retort to Ganeshran on Daemon's picture depicting Ajmal's excreta
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Old 23-03-2012, 01:16 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Yeah I know that small sample sizes distort things but it's a bit much to just say average of 45 + some luck = average of 22, not least because it assumes without evidence that Steyn was unusually unlucky in that series.
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[Dhoni on 99] Barely seen any of the day's play (for sanity's sake), but here's a competition that might be fun: things more common than a Tim Bresnan wicket
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3) Dhoni scoring a composed, valuable Test hundred against good bowlers
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Old 23-03-2012, 07:21 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Icon12 Really??

This Steyn guy must be darn good if nit picking of such proportions are attempted
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Old 23-03-2012, 07:24 AM   #24 (permalink)
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This Steyn guy must be darn good if nit picking of such proportions are attempted
Can tell you're new to CW. This, comparatively speaking, is minor stats picking.

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Old 23-03-2012, 07:35 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Two Tests is far too few. Imagine if Steyn sent down 500 balls over the course of two hypothetical Tests, and took only 10 wickets at an SR of 50 and with his economy rate of 3.5, at an average of just under 30. Imagine that he had a catch dropped, a close lbw shout not given (although it was out) and an inswinger that beat the batsman and missed off stump by two millimeters.

In this example, with a tiny bit of extra luck he could have had 13 wickets, an SR of 38 and am average of 22 (more like his real life stats). Fluctuations of luck occur like this all the time, and the smaller the sample size the greater the effect.

If he'd been smashed for 6 an over and took no wickets then maybe that could be considered a failing, otherwise it falls within the margin of error IMO.
Great post!
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