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***Official*** South Africa in New Zealand 2012

Chubb

International Regular
Anyone going to the ground tomorrow? I'm really looking forward to it. Haven't been to a test in NZ before.
 

SteveNZ

Cricketer Of The Year
Anyone going to the ground tomorrow? I'm really looking forward to it. Haven't been to a test in NZ before.
I'll be there, just saw the ground before - beautiful. A lot to be said for purpose built grounds, of which all three of these Tests are being played on.

It just rained, so maybe that's Thursday's wet sorted out already.
 

Chubb

International Regular
I'll be there, just saw the ground before - beautiful. A lot to be said for purpose built grounds, of which all three of these Tests are being played on.

It just rained, so maybe that's Thursday's wet sorted out already.
Looks like the weather won't be a belter but it should hold up for the day.
 

BeeGee

International Captain
If NZ bat first they'll lose.

If NZ bowl first they'll have a reasonable chance of winning the Test.
 

Howsie

International Captain
Sigh, looks as though Andrew Ellis will play ahead of Trent Boult. This team just gets better and better :laugh:
 

Briony

International Debutant
If NZ bat first they'll lose.

If NZ bowl first they'll have a reasonable chance of winning the Test.
So we'll know the result after the toss!

Given that it's in NZ conditions and many of the SA players have had no warm-up match, the home team would have to start clear favourites.
 

SteveNZ

Cricketer Of The Year
Doubt it will happen. It'd be a ridiculously backward step to pick a lesser bowler based on the fact he might get a few runs at No.8.
 

straw man

Hall of Fame Member
If NZ bat first they'll lose.

If NZ bowl first they'll have a reasonable chance of winning the Test.
So we'll know the result after the toss!

Given that it's in NZ conditions and many of the SA players have had no warm-up match, the home team would have to start clear favourites.
:blink:

Umm South Africa are very very clear favourites, no matter whether this match is held in Dunedin, Antarctica or on the moon.

Agree sort-of with Beegee that our chances improve slightly if we bowl first, though I would not say we have a 'reasonable chance of winning'. That is highly optimistic.

Simply refuse to believe the Ellis is playing ahead of Boult. The universe might just decide '**** this, I'm ending this **** now' and cease to exist.
 

Flem274*

123/5
I'd actually drop Nicol, bat van Wyk at five and put Ellis at seven tbh.

I also think we should bat first. South Africa are far more likely to trip over our stronger suit which is bowling, so in the fourth innings we definitely want to be bowling. If we bat first, then come the fourth innings, any total over fifty would be a hard chase with our batting against Steyn, Philander and co.
 

Kippax

Cricketer Of The Year
The flipside though being if NZ bat first and poorly (well, anything short of a 7/10 effort for them IMO), there won't be a 4th innings.
 

Flem274*

123/5
The flipside though being if NZ bat first and poorly (well, anything short of a 7/10 effort for them IMO), there won't be a 4th innings.
Not much to a fourth innings chasing 500 to win either tbh.

We're going to lose either way. Might as well put the bowlers in the best position to work their magic on day 5 if we get to it.
 

Prince EWS

Global Moderator
I'd actually drop Nicol, bat van Wyk at five and put Ellis at seven tbh.
Unless you actually think Ellis is a better batsman than Nicol it makes no sense. You're not going to need five seamers *and* Vettori. He'd just not bowl at all.

I know you're keen on putting Ellis forward because his good domestic performances, but this isn't really the "looks rubbish but is effective" v "looks good but does nothing" debate that you're making it to be. Ellis has been a very good allrounder for Canterbury in the last few seasons but that doesn't mean he credentials as a specialist batsman, even if Nicol doesn't either. This is a man who has scored useful runs, but also a man who:

- Has scored one First Class hundred in nine seasons of cricket (Nicol has 10)
- Has spent the vast majority of his career batting 7 or lower
- Averages less than 32 with the bat

He's had a good last couple of seasons for Canterbury batting six and seven and he has a very good average in that time but a few brave, scrappy rescue efforts in the lower middle order of a Plunket Shield side with one hundred in nine years does not a Test batsman make. Nicol's First Class record isn't what I'd like it to be either and I would've been a lot happier if they'd picked someone else, but it's a lot better than Ellis's especially considering he's actually done it as a batsman. If you're going to pick someone on performance despite a lack of aesthetic appeal - something as you know I'm a big exponent of - you do want it to be based on more than a season and a half in a low expectation role.
 
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Flem274*

123/5
Unless you actually think Ellis is a better batsman than Nicol it makes no sense. You're not going to need five seamers *and* Vettori. He'd just not bowl at all.

I know you're keen on putting Ellis forward because his good domestic performances, but this isn't really the "looks rubbish but is effective" v "looks good but does nothing" debate that you're making it to be. Ellis has been a very good allrounder for Canterbury in the last few seasons but that doesn't mean he credentials as a specialist batsman, even if Nicol doesn't either. This is a man who has scored useful runs, but also a man who:

- Has scored one First Class hundred in nine seasons of cricket (Nicol has 10)
- Has spent the vast majority of his career batting 7 or lower
- Averages less than 32 with the bat

He's had a good last couple of seasons for Canterbury batting six and seven and he has a very good average in that time but a few brave, scrappy rescue efforts in the lower middle order of a Plunket Shield side with one hundred in nine years does not a Test batsman make. Nicol's First Class record isn't what I'd like it to be either and I would've been a lot happier if they'd picked someone else, but it's a lot better than Ellis's as well especially considering he's actually done it as a batsman. If you're going to pick someone on performance despite a lack of aesthetic appeal - something as you know I'm a big exponent of - you do want it to be based on more than a season and a half in a low expectation role.
I didn't actually realise he had just the one FC ton tbh.:( Bugger scores runs and takes wickets in every game he plays. I thought he would have a few more centuries.

I think I would still *just* pick Ellis since for the role I would have him in, he's very suited to it. Fifties and a few overs with a wicket at seven is fine. For me, Nicol and Guptill opening together with McCullum at three is a massive risk. I know Guptill/McCullum/Williamson doesn't look flash either, but it's stronger than the top three with Nicol in it and McCullum at three. If Guptill/McCullum/Williamson fails then Ellis has a history of rescuing collapses Nicol/Worker/Fulton start. I think Ellis brings more to the side.

That said, Nicol is going to be the one to play and he has scored runs against good domestic attacks, and he's in as a reserve, so I hope tomorrow he has one of his good days and hits a ton.
 

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