Swann is a much better bowler and cricketer than Monty, who relies almost totally on demons in the pitch to get his wickets. Swann has better variation and control, although he perhaps doesn't turn it as much. His batting's handy, but scoring against Johnson & co. is a lot tougher than against Edwards & co (Matt Prior must be sweating...).
After seeing Australia's ashes squad I think England have a better chance than I first thought, however I'd still back Australia, especially if England try to play 5 bowlers with Flintoff at 6 or 7. However I really don't rate Hauritz at all so if he plays as part of a 4 man attack Australia go through a lot of periods where they're just looking to contain and will be pretty toothless (like they were in India). Going to be a big test of Ponting's captaincy (he might have another Nagpur moment and piss it away) and a big test of the ability of England's players. Australia's middle order looks a bit fragile with Ponting and Hussey in a rut/decline, hoping for some exciting stuff from Hughes though.
Swann turned it quite a bit more than Panesar did in India and West Indies- Monty was notorious for his big turn, but it seemed to mysteriously desert him.
I totally agree regarding England's chances being better than I'd originally thought. I think this is a much better group of England players than the one that went into the South Africa series last summer. It took those three consecutive series defeats to lose the dead wood- and they gave South Africa, probably on about a par with Australia in terms of quality, a half-decent run. It's happened quite subtly but they've really improve since last year-
Strauss now>>Strauss then
Cook now>> Cook then
Bopara>>Vaughan then
KP=KP then
Colly>>Colly then (was in a serious form dip IIRC)
Prior/Ambrose- hard to judge, the difference in quality is massive with both bat and gloves
Flintoff- all depends on fitness, but i'd back him to come good for Australia's visit
Broad>>>>>>>Broad then
Swann>>Panesar
Onions<<<<Sidebottom then
Anderson=Anderson then
A few little tweaks to the side, a few small improvements in players (and one massive improvement for Stuart Broad) and England are in much better shape than they were a year ago. Australia are still better, but there's an air of ultra-pessimism around here that i don't think is an entirely true reflection of English prospects.