View Poll Results: Duckworth Lewis; good or bad?

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  • D/L FTW! Lets keep it.

    15 78.95%
  • D/L sucks. Lets use something better.

    4 21.05%
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Thread: Duckworth/Lewis - Fair?

  1. #91
    Hall of Fame Member morgieb's Avatar
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    While D/L isn't that great, it's better than the other alternatives.
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  2. #92
    International Coach uvelocity's Avatar
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    Are you sure you were definitely playing under duckworth-lewis? depending on what grade it is, some just have a sliding scale in the back of the rule book.
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  3. #93
    Global Moderator vic_orthdox's Avatar
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    Yeah, we play Duckworth Lewis. 2nd grade downwards have another rule.

  4. #94
    Cricket Spectator Dexter Morgan's Avatar
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    V. Jayadevan came up with an alternative to the Duckworth Lewis method including "scoring range" as an additional parameter [0]. It fares at least as good as D/L method in all situations and fares better than D/L in certain tricky situations [1]. Cricinfo did a nice comparison between the two.


    [0] http://www.iisc.ernet.in/currsci/feb252004/515.pdf
    [1] rediff.com: cricket channel: Is Jayadevan's proposed method better than the Duckworth/Lewis method?
    [2] Numbers Game : Numbers Game: A comparison of two rain rules | Cricinfo Magazine | ESPN Cricinfo
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  5. #95
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend NUFAN's Avatar
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    Afghanistan made 8/184 in 20 overs and when rain hit Ireland were 2/65 from 6.1 overs and the par score was 2/53 when it started to rain.

    The game was reduced to 11 overs and the target was now 111 to win. I feel like 58 runs above the target from just 29 balls (12 per over) seems too high.

  6. #96
    International Coach weldone's Avatar
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    I thought 53/2 after 6.1 was too low a par while chasing 185.
    ...not sure if that means DLS does not take powerplay into account correctly (which shouldn't be the case - because DLS tables are based on historical data, and that means powerplay is considered automatically)
    [or it can also mean cricinfo didn't make their calculations correctly - and came up with the 53/2 number without any official confirmation]

    I more-or-less agreed with the eventual target btw.
    Last edited by weldone; 10-03-2017 at 10:00 AM.
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  7. #97
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend NUFAN's Avatar
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    The eventual target did seem quite fair but I feel like this might be because 111 from 11 seems a neat target. I guess as you've said my beef was more with the par score to end target.

  8. #98
    International 12th Man S.Kennedy's Avatar
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    If it is the best system, it could certainly use some fine tuning.

  9. #99
    International Debutant Compton's Avatar
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    I don't think it needs changing tbh.

    The system gets 'smarter' the more games are played, so the only time it's really out of date is when there's a sudden change in how the game is played (the increase in prominence and quality of lower order sloggers a few years back as an example).

    Sometimes it just needs a while to catch up.
    zorax likes this.

  10. #100
    Eyes not spreadsheets marc71178's Avatar
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    Definitely the best system around, doesn't work as well for T20 but I suspect that is more the nature of T20 being such a short game.
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  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Compton View Post
    I don't think it needs changing tbh.

    The system gets 'smarter' the more games are played, so the only time it's really out of date is when there's a sudden change in how the game is played (the increase in prominence and quality of lower order sloggers a few years back as an example).

    Sometimes it just needs a while to catch up.
    Am I just misunderstanding DLS or is this completely incorrect? Short of updating the model I don't think the system takes into account any historical data.

    EDIT: It appears I am wrong.
    Last edited by Daemon; 11-03-2017 at 05:07 AM.

  12. #102
    International 12th Man S.Kennedy's Avatar
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    Nobody understands Duckworth-Lewis. Even Duckworth and Lewis do not understand Duckworth-Lewis.

  13. #103
    State Vice-Captain Bijed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Compton View Post
    I don't think it needs changing tbh.

    The system gets 'smarter' the more games are played, so the only time it's really out of date is when there's a sudden change in how the game is played (the increase in prominence and quality of lower order sloggers a few years back as an example).

    Sometimes it just needs a while to catch up.
    Do you know if the historical data used is limited to the last x matches played or matches played in the last x years or anything like that? I know that would essentially stop the system from 'learning' as the amount of data available for use would essentially be kept at constant level, but equally data from before a sudden change to the game arguably shouldn't be used once there's enough new data around to get the model working well again.
    zorax likes this.
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  14. #104
    Global Moderator vic_orthdox's Avatar
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    T20 is tough, because the break in play makes things so much harder - the effect of batsmen starting again is a lot greater in the shorter format.
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  15. #105
    International Coach zorax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vic_orthdox View Post
    T20 is tough, because the break in play makes things so much harder - the effect of batsmen starting again is a lot greater in the shorter format.
    Yea there was an article on Cricinfo that essentially pointed out the problem with laying a platform in T20 vs ODIs is that it still takes a certain number of deliveries to get your eye in, regardless of the format, and in T20s that X number of balls is so much more critical than in an ODI.

    D/L should probably be adjusted to reflect that.
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