Duckworth/Lewis - Fair?

[Daemon]

I don't think it needs changing tbh.

The system gets 'smarter' the more games are played, so the only time it's really out of date is when there's a sudden change in how the game is played (the increase in prominence and quality of lower order sloggers a few years back as an example).

Sometimes it just needs a while to catch up.

Am I just misunderstanding DLS or is this completely incorrect? Short of updating the model I don't think the system takes into account any historical data.

EDIT: It appears I am wrong.

 

[S.Kennedy]

Nobody understands Duckworth-Lewis. Even Duckworth and Lewis do not understand Duckworth-Lewis.

 

[Bijed]

I don't think it needs changing tbh.

The system gets 'smarter' the more games are played, so the only time it's really out of date is when there's a sudden change in how the game is played (the increase in prominence and quality of lower order sloggers a few years back as an example).

Sometimes it just needs a while to catch up.

Do you know if the historical data used is limited to the last x matches played or matches played in the last x years or anything like that? I know that would essentially stop the system from 'learning' as the amount of data available for use would essentially be kept at constant level, but equally data from before a sudden change to the game arguably shouldn't be used once there's enough new data around to get the model working well again.

 

[vic_orthdox]

T20 is tough, because the break in play makes things so much harder - the effect of batsmen starting again is a lot greater in the shorter format.

 

[cnerd123]

T20 is tough, because the break in play makes things so much harder - the effect of batsmen starting again is a lot greater in the shorter format.

Yea there was an article on Cricinfo that essentially pointed out the problem with laying a platform in T20 vs ODIs is that it still takes a certain number of deliveries to get your eye in, regardless of the format, and in T20s that X number of balls is so much more critical than in an ODI.

D/L should probably be adjusted to reflect that.